ATL: HARVEY - Models

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#941 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:17 am

keeps ridge pretty strong.. not really a weakness
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#942 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:19 am

note about the 0Z EC, it was dramatically weaker. 12Z yesterday had a hurricane. 0Z barely had a tropical storm
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#943 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:20 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 81.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2017 0 16.8N 81.7W 1008 27
0000UTC 22.08.2017 12 18.2N 85.8W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.08.2017 24 19.1N 88.8W 1009 22
0000UTC 23.08.2017 36 20.4N 90.9W 1007 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 48 20.6N 92.3W 1004 30
0000UTC 24.08.2017 60 21.4N 93.3W 999 36
1200UTC 24.08.2017 72 22.3N 94.4W 991 44
0000UTC 25.08.2017 84 23.0N 95.9W 978 61
1200UTC 25.08.2017 96 23.9N 97.7W 971 64
0000UTC 26.08.2017 108 24.4N 99.8W 1000 28
1200UTC 26.08.2017 120 26.0N 102.2W 1007 18
0000UTC 27.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#944 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:30 am

what these models are saying are, the stronger the system, the less likely it is to affect Texas. All of the strong model runs are well into Mexico
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#945 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:33 am

What does ukmet say?? I think models won't have grasp till wed
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stormreader

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#946 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 21, 2017 11:54 am

perk wrote:
Steve wrote:
stormreader wrote:Now looking at most recent pic. Large area of disorganized t-storms and much further north than the expected coordinates for the "center" or where the center was projected to be right now, off of Belize. This activity will cross the Yucatan, and I think there is an excellent chance that reorganization in the GOM will occur in connection with this more northward activity. Think that may induce a more northward trajectory than many might expect.


I'd be surprised though not shocked if it came up closer to SE Texas than the mid S TX Coast. It's certainly possible, and any delay or stall along the way could mean a more northerly track later. In any event, some of the models bring this up after landfall into the Hill Country, SE TX and then Piney Woods. So there might be sufficient interruption for interior Texans toward the weekend.



I totally agree,but we seem to be in the minority.

I don't think you're in the minority (if I read Steve's post correctly). Saying he doesn't think it will make landfall further north than the mid S TX Coast. That would be between Brownsville and Corpus. Any further north than that, is still sort of out on a limb.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#947 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:04 pm

Yeah. Except for a couple of GFS Ensembles and the NAM, the range seems to be the State of Tamps, Mexico (Tamaulipas) and mid Texas Coast. I would hedge either way 50 miles.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#948 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:05 pm

HMON MUCH weaker so far. HMON is saying "Holy mother of shear!" NAM does not seem to have been that far in left field in depicting a hostile Gulf

Still no trend. Some models came in stronger, others weaker
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#949 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:06 pm

NAVGEM MUCH weaker:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#950 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:16 pm

models are clearly screaming that the environment likely won't be as favorable as they said it would be previously. The upper high is expected to be too far east. Instead, we MAY get a June-like system out of this
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#951 Postby perk » Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:43 pm

Alyono wrote:models are clearly screaming that the environment likely won't be as favorable as they said it would be previously. The upper high is expected to be too far east. Instead, we MAY get a June-like system out of this



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a
well-defined center of circulation. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize
or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The system is forecast to
move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a
tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#952 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:11 pm

Euro is coming in farther north through 72 hours and a tad stronger.
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#953 Postby hd44 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:11 pm

Conditions could not be more favorable in the Boc. Gfs shows favorable conditons, and I don't pay much attention to its intensity. Should see a full blown hurricane.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#954 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:11 pm

12z Euro so far is a little further north than the GFS.
Last edited by NDG on Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#955 Postby Big O » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:12 pm

Through 72 hours, Harvey coming in stronger and more north of previous path.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#956 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:12 pm

hd44 wrote:Conditions could not be more favorable in the Boc. Gfs shows favorable conditons, and I don't pay much attention to its intensity. Should see a full blown hurricane.

Euro is way stronger this run
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#957 Postby hd44 » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:13 pm

Image

That's pretty darn favorable .
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#958 Postby Thetxhurricanemaster » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:14 pm

hd44 wrote:Image

That's pretty darn favorable .

It is and this has potential to be a weak hurricane !
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#959 Postby Big O » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:14 pm

Through 84 hours, continues to intensify and appears to make a left turn.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#960 Postby Big O » Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:15 pm

Virtually identical position at 84h as shown on 0z run, but much stronger.
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