ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

[Stormcenter]

Louisiana is not in play and how would you know this for sure when it hasn't even developed a new center yet?

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

[TexWx]

I thought school started already.


Anyway, that does look like a lot of moisture headed NW.

[TheStormExpert]

Louisiana is not in play and how would you know this for sure when it hasn't even developed a new center yet?

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

Anyone is in play along the Gulf Coast (especially Western Gulf Coast) for now.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Louisiana is not in play and how would you know this for sure when it hasn't even developed a new center yet?

I would also not rule out center relos after emerging into the GOM....seen it happen way to many times...TA and even SW LA is in play attm IMO....

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

No model shows a first landfall in Louisiana only a few models make a second landfall in Louisiana this pattern is different the stronger the storm the more south because of the dynamics

[Hammy]

Is there somewhere better to get high resolution imagery other than the goes 16 at colostate.edu?
It would be easy to miss the circulation, off Cozumel hard to tell if that is mid level?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Best place to get it, that's where I usually go for anything other than a quick check.

[ROCK]

Louisiana is not in play and how would you know this for sure when it hasn't even developed a new center yet?

Anywhere from Tampico to Corpus christi is in play Louisiana is not in play !

No model shows a first landfall in Louisiana only a few models make a second landfall in Louisiana this pattern is different the stronger the storm the more south because of the dynamics

no yet...give them time to catch up...

[Kingarabian]

Hope the G-IV's are ready to go. Going to need them here since the steering is evolving into something unique.

[cycloneye]

Hope the G-IV's are ready to go. Going to need them here since the steering is evolving into something unique.

Gonzo will fly on Tuesday afternoon to sample the upper atmosphere and bring more data to the models.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118978&p=2604289#p2604289

[ROCK]

Louisiana is not in play and how would you know this for sure when it hasn't even developed a new center yet?

No model shows a first landfall in Louisiana only a few models make a second landfall in Louisiana this pattern is different the stronger the storm the more south because of the dynamics

no yet...give them time to catch up...

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[South Texas Storms]

Hope the G-IV's are ready to go. Going to need them here since the steering is evolving into something unique.

Gonzo will fly on Tuesday afternoon to sample the upper atmosphere and bring more data to the models.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118978&p=2604289#p2604289

So that means the extra data should hopefully be in for the 0z runs tomorrow night.

[ROCK]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Yeah but this is headed for Northern Mexico or Brownsville just watch models will trend to that general area

[Kingarabian]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Wonder why the models keep it week until just before landfall.

Anywho, hour by the hour monitoring should begin soon since if it emerges into the BOC stronger, then that may be the difference between a modest TS or a well developed hurricane making landfall.

[stormlover2013]

Nope, climatology, ridge is breaking down more, models are now grasping pattern, we are in that 3-4 day range now

[Tireman4]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Yeah but this is headed for Northern Mexico or Brownsville just watch models will trend to that general area

Well...we do not have a defined center yet, it is still disorganized and it might relocate (center) somewhere else. I think everyone from Mexico to Louisiana should pay attention to this. Wxman 57 stated this awhile back. This us just an opinion of a historian, not an expert.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow....sharpest turning I see in that wave axis is up near 85W 19.5N moving NW! Right under all that convection!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=11652&y=6867&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=200&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Christiana]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Wow! Am I correct in that this illustrates an area's maximum potential which would be supported in the perfect/worst case scenario on a given date (?) which honestly is terrifying, but interesting! Thank you. I continue to learn so much here, thank you to all the knowledgeable members who share. Bookmarked.

[Frank P]

Wow....sharpest turning I see in that wave axis is up near 85W 19.5N moving NW! Right under all that convection!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=11652&y=6867&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=200&motion=loop&map=1&lat=1&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Wave axis sure does hint at a more NW direction... but the overall cloud formation certainly appears to be moving off the NW...

[davidiowx]

TCP looks good...that ULL might create an outflow channel to vent...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 2atd26.png

and I love this map even though Bret hates it...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Yeah but this is headed for Northern Mexico or Brownsville just watch models will trend to that general area

Please stop with the certainties in your posts. You've done it a few times. There is no defined center and center relocations can occur. There are more factors at play than a few model runs.