ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Since it's fairly quiet on the board, i don't mind posting this. Wxman is one of the BIGGEST people I disagree with on this forum. Every single Winter, he wishcasts the cold away from the Gulf Coast, and projects a warm core Winter throughout the same area.

How did winter work out for you in Texas last Dec-Feb? It's not wiscasting if you can make it happen. Case closed. Don't poke at me if you would ever like winter to return.

Speaking of Harvey's wave axis, I think it's over the Yucatan now - just inland. Pressures are rising significantly just offshore and the wind came around to ESE-SE at a ship just south of Cozumel. It may be out over the SW Gulf/BoC earlier than predicted. Faster movement could mean a farther south landfall - I said could. I think Harvey could bring lots of rain to Texas, at least.

[SoupBone]

Since it's fairly quiet on the board, i don't mind posting this. Wxman is one of the BIGGEST people I disagree with on this forum. Every single Winter, he wishcasts the cold away from the Gulf Coast, and projects a warm core Winter throughout the same area.

How did winter work out for you in Texas last Dec-Feb? It's not wiscasting if you can make it happen. Case closed. Don't poke at me if you would ever like winter to return.

Speaking of Harvey's wave axis, I think it's over the Yucatan now - just inland. Pressures are rising significantly just offshore and the wind came around to ESE-SE at a ship just south of Cozumel. It may be out over the SW Gulf/BoC earlier than predicted. Faster movement could mean a farther south landfall - I said could. I think Harvey could bring lots of rain to Texas, at least.

It's interesting because it looks like it's already making its way inland. And that is a lower latitude than I thought we'd see so far.

[latitude_20]

Very nice here in Tulum. Rain showers off and on through the day, thunder rolling in the distance now. Wondering if there's more rain to come.

[sphelps8681]

If ex harvey goes on shore closer to mexico/texas border what does 92L do. Does it intensify or fizzle out.

[Hammy]

Some sort of weak center starting to take shape over the Caribbean based on Belize radar, but on the eastern side of the convection so the shear is still there, though much lighter than a few days ago.

[Frank P]

Looks to be moving pretty fast wnw or perhaps just north of due west.... certainly not NW as I though earlier.... just might be a TX/MEX border storm...unless the circulation center that I saw on the latest IR sat loops was at the mid levels. next Euro run should be interesting!

[Steve]

If ex harvey goes on shore closer to mexico/texas border what does 92L do. Does it intensify or fizzle out.

I think you have to wait for the complicated pattern to resolve. We are now on the east side of the ULL with thunder going off in the distance. That will be out the way and Harvey should be too in a few days. Then there is the UL that moved down by 92L that will have to fill or back west. There is a front then a cool high that will roll off the east coast. If something comes out the pattern be it 92L or something that stews up, I think it's going to take 4-5 days minimum to know. JMO

[SoupBone]

If ex harvey goes on shore closer to mexico/texas border what does 92L do. Does it intensify or fizzle out.

I think you have to wait for the complicated pattern to resolve. We are now on the east side of the ULL with thunder going off in the distance. That will be out the way and Harvey should be too in a few days. Then there is the UL that moved down by 92L that will have to fill or back west. There is a front then a cool high that will roll off the east coast. If something comes out the pattern be it 92L or something that stews up, I think it's going to take 4-5 days minimum to know. JMO

The landfall forecast if less than 4 days out though.

[Steve]

If ex harvey goes on shore closer to mexico/texas border what does 92L do. Does it intensify or fizzle out.

I think you have to wait for the complicated pattern to resolve. We are now on the east side of the ULL with thunder going off in the distance. That will be out the way and Harvey should be too in a few days. Then there is the UL that moved down by 92L that will have to fill or back west. There is a front then a cool high that will roll off the east coast. If something comes out the pattern be it 92L or something that stews up, I think it's going to take 4-5 days minimum to know. JMO

The landfall forecast if less than 4 days out though.

They were asking what about 92L.

[SoupBone]

I think you have to wait for the complicated pattern to resolve. We are now on the east side of the ULL with thunder going off in the distance. That will be out the way and Harvey should be too in a few days. Then there is the UL that moved down by 92L that will have to fill or back west. There is a front then a cool high that will roll off the east coast. If something comes out the pattern be it 92L or something that stews up, I think it's going to take 4-5 days minimum to know. JMO

The landfall forecast if less than 4 days out though.

They were asking what about 92L.

Oops, should have read the rest.

[ROCK]

I still keep looking to the NW under that new
convection about under Cozumel as the potential to be the COC..it looks suspect...maybe center relo..idk jmo

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[Steve]

I still keep looking to the NW under that new
convection about under Cozumel as the potential to be the COC..it looks suspect...maybe center relo..idk jmo

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

Possibly still broad? It looks like the new, heaviest convection is building farther south.

[Alyono]

For those living in Texas

KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF THIS COMES OUR WAY. DO NO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE

[SoupBone]

I can't imagine such a huge shift this fast. Anything keeping this from verifying? What factors right now play the biggest part in such a drastic swing in the models?

[Hurricaneman]

For those living in Texas

KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF THIS COMES OUR WAY. DO NO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE

Hope you're ready, could be a decent storm or hurricane

[AxaltaRacing24]

I can't imagine such a huge shift this fast. Anything keeping this from verifying? What factors right now play the biggest part in such a drastic swing in the models?

Not the first time. On Monday morning Oct 3rd, 2016 the models were shifting east away from Florida with Matthew as many members here said that we were definitely in the clear. Then starting with the 06z/12z models, they all drastically shifted west as the trend did not stop until Tuesday afternoon as hurricane preparations went underway just under 12 hours after many people thought we were in the clear.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like I see spin near Cozumel

[mcheer23]

1am Discussion path is toward mid tx coast now

[Kingarabian]

For those living in Texas

KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF THIS COMES OUR WAY. DO NO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE

Folks will only have 3 days to prepare. If the GFS solution verifies, 3 days wont be enough.

[Cpv17]

For those living in Texas

KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD DO IF THIS COMES OUR WAY. DO NO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE

Folks will only have 3 days to prepare. If the GFS solution verifies, 3 days wont be enough.

What's crazy to me was just 2 days ago a lot of the models weren't even emerging this into the BOC. Basically saying that it was going to just wash out and dissipate over land south of Veracruz. We had all but written this storm off at that point and look what the models are showing now.