ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, we have a closed low, super light winds. ITs doing better than i thought unfortunately. Do storms like these grow stronger at night or during the day? Could someone explain that to me?

[perk]

The upper level low south of the Louisiana coast basically has been stationary for the past 12-24 hours now. This in itself is very intriguing. This feature was supposed to have started to fill in and get lifted out to have the upper ridge direct the developing cyclone off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula toward the northwest.

So far, the ULL is hanging tough and I do not see it pulling away at this juncture. I would not be shocked at all if models started shifting eastward. I think everyone along the Gulf Coast from NE MX to Mississippi needs to be paying serious attention with this situation the rest of this week!

Check out Levi Cowans update from yesterday.He mentioned that upper low would take about 24 hours to move out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty clear we have a TC again. Circulation is tightening. Satellite imagery also shows a convective burst initiating just east of the LLC. Harvey's intensification will likely be slow and gradual at first, but by Thursday night into Friday, atmospheric conditions should become more favorable for quicker intensification. Residents along the TX coast and adjacent areas should be paying close attention to Harvey. Harvey isn't only a coastal threat, as inland flood will be a significant concern.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty clear we have a TC again. Circulation is tightening. Satellite imagery also shows a convective burst initiating just east of the LLC. Harvey's intensification will likely be slow and gradual at first, but by Thursday night into Friday, atmospheric conditions should become more favorable for quicker intensification. Residents along the TX coast and adjacent areas should be paying close attention to Harvey. Harvey isn't only a coastal threat, as inland flood will be a significant concern.

Yeah, and each pass of recon will likely show increased organization, especially given this new convective burst beginning.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Pretty clear we have a TC again. Circulation is tightening. Satellite imagery also shows a convective burst initiating just east of the LLC. Harvey's intensification will likely be slow and gradual at first, but by Thursday night into Friday, atmospheric conditions should become more favorable for quicker intensification. Residents along the TX coast and adjacent areas should be paying close attention to Harvey. Harvey isn't only a coastal threat, as inland flood will be a significant concern.

Yeah, and each pass of recon will likely show increased organization, especially given this new convective burst beginning.

Yep the southwestern vorticy wins put this time

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track has it as TD.

AL, 09, 2017082312, , BEST, 0, 214N, 925W, 30, 1006, TD

[NDG]

You can clearly see the LLC just to the west of a convection.

[ROCK]

definitely getting that look...banding features / feeder bands starting to develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ROCK]

yep that's it...good close up...notice its expanding in size also..

[Steve]

Well, we have a closed low, super light winds. ITs doing better than i thought unfortunately. Do storms like these grow stronger at night or during the day? Could someone explain that to me?

They're all different. Some keep growing. Some pulse. But generally they intensify or peak during DMAX and weaken or pulse down during DMIN. I find it helpful to observe the specific behavior of a given storm. Because I've seen them the opposite where they pulse up and down opposite of what you'd expect.

[Tireman4]

definitely getting that look...banding features / feeder bands starting to develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I wonder if we see a slow intensification and the an RI..maybe Thursday?

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4818.5&y=6408.5&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Non SLIDER
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=22&lon=-92&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=20&quality=92

[Nederlander]

definitely getting that look...banding features / feeder bands starting to develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yes it is. Looks to have ingested some dry air near the LLC, but there is persistent convection to the NW and SE trying to choke it out.

[MGC]

Key to intensity is how quickly the ULL get out of the way. Moving at only 10KTS, Harvey should have time to become a hurricane before landfall. Yall in Texas need to get ready for Harvey and be safe....MGC

[GCANE]

Lots of towers spewing cirrus - building a CDO

[ScottNAtlanta]

One good blow up west of the center and this will be off to the races

[ROCK]

definitely getting that look...banding features / feeder bands starting to develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I wonder if we see a slow intensification and the an RI..maybe Thursday?

I am not on the RI boat just yet....I know the TCP is there in the GOM...potential is there but things would have to be right upper air wise..

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[GCANE]

Latest GFS shows mid-layer dry air a problem all the way to the Texas Coast.
That is basically the only thing holding Harvey back from really intensifying.
Keeping a close eye on that dry slot.

[Steve]

Exciting and dangerous days ahead for many of you along the TX and SW LA coasts. Chiming in from the pro-side, Joe B focused much of his morning video on Harvey (though he drew a parallel with a setup in mid-September 1967 with Beulah and the D storm off the Outer Banks).

He said they'd be releasing their track later today on social media that they released to clients early this morning. He says possibly a couple of feet of rain along the TX Coast and then Cat 1 or 2 on a run to the middle TX Coast and then a crawl northward where it's still maybe just in SW LA on Tuesday. They're calling for a multi-billion dollar storm. That would be pretty impressive for most Cat 1's (or even 2's). I don't have any real disagreement with what he says, but I don't really have an idea on damage estimates because Harvey can ultimately be anything from a tropical storm to a Cat 3. It's not the model thread, but the 06GFS has the center later on crossing over me and Lake Pontchartrain. Some of the pumps here are fixed, but many are out because you can't just go to the store to buy the parts. I'm not personally worried about the usual hurricane supplies here. I'm more concerned with street/car flooding. So I'll probably hit the grocery tomorrow or Friday evening and just get some generic stuff in case we need it and then continue to monitor. If a hurricane threat (vs. remnant storm threat) is apparent at any point for SELA, I'll adjust accordingly.

But y'all down from Brownsville to on up the TX Coast ought to have everything you need. The rush will just get worse and worse and worse. Don't sleep on provisions and supplies early.

[MississippiWx]

Very surprised at how well-organized Harvey is this morning. I didn't expect such a defined center so soon. Notice how outflow is expanding in the western semi-circle as well. Dry air will be the main inhibiting factor for development at first, but then it could be off to the races tomorrow.