ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

Harvey is building an impressive convection around the COC. This cyclone is intensifying right now and it will not be long at all before we have the third hurricane of this season. I think it could be a hurricane as early as late this morning.

This is a potentially very bad situation unfolding for all along coastal TX and South and SE Texas with the potential flooding threat. We may be potentially looking at a Cat 3 minimal hurricane making landfall, then meandering and impacting this region for as long as about a week.

My prayers to everyone out there who are facing this prospect for days to come.

This has a shot to get to cat 3 or 4. This is indeed looking horrible for the coast of Texas. From South Padre to Houston massive flooding regardless.

[Sciencerocks]

Harvey is building an impressive convection around the COC. This cyclone is intensifying right now and it will not be long at all before we have the third hurricane of this season. I think it could be a hurricane as early as late this morning.

This is a potentially very bad situation unfolding for all along coastal TX and South and SE Texas with the potential flooding threat. We may be potentially looking at a Cat 3 minimal hurricane making landfall, then meandering and impacting this region for as long as about a week.

My prayers to everyone out there who are facing this prospect for days to come.

This has a shot to get to cat 3 or 4. This is indeed looking horrible for the coast of Texas. From South Padre to Houston massive flooding regardless.

My gut tells me that this is the storm that ends the major hurricane drought the US has seen since Wilma.

[Alyono]

Putting aside the modeling Alyono and using your skills @ the current synoptics,
whats your opinion in the future intensity for Harvey.

Would be good to know what 57 thinks about this storm , its coming to his neck of the woods.

Most of us here just use models as the intensity guide ie shear, sst, moisture, you have
a big advantage Alyono with your advanced degree a hint please.

cat 2 is becoming more likely. Cannot rule out a category 3

[Alyono]

New advisory keeps the intensity the same--it seems the lack of SFMR on the last pass kept them from increasing the intensity.

not sure why Avila said the winds were unconfirmed. Two planes recorded similar winds

[hd44]

This is 995 mb. Assuming another 36 hours of 1 mb drop per hour ... and this landfalls as 959 mb.

[southerngale]

Harvey is building an impressive convection around the COC. This cyclone is intensifying right now and it will not be long at all before we have the third hurricane of this season. I think it could be a hurricane as early as late this morning.

This is a potentially very bad situation unfolding for all along coastal TX and South and SE Texas with the potential flooding threat. We may be potentially looking at a Cat 3 minimal hurricane making landfall, then meandering and impacting this region for as long as about a week.

My prayers to everyone out there who are facing this prospect for days to come.

This has a shot to get to cat 3 or 4. This is indeed looking horrible for the coast of Texas. From South Padre to Houston massive flooding regardless.

My gut tells me that this is the storm that ends the major hurricane drought the US has seen since Wilma.

No drought here. We have had an enormous amount of rain this summer with multiple flood warnings and are very saturated.

[hd44]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 / 998.5mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 3.2 4.0

Center Temp : -76.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[northjaxpro]

I mistyped in my previous post. I have since edited it. I meant to have said that Harvey potentially could be a Cat 3, which of course is a major tropical cyclone. The previous post intiially made it seem that I was referring to a Cat 3 as a minimal hurricane. Obviously, I was not meaning that at all.

Praying for you all out there! I do not like the new trends whatsoever. A potential catastrophic event unfolding for TX coastal region and later inland massive flooding threat

[stormreader]

Harvey is building an impressive convection around the COC. This cyclone is intensifying right now and it will not be long at all before we have the third hurricane of this season. I think it could be a hurricane as early as late this morning.

This is a potentially very bad situation unfolding for all along coastal TX and South and SE Texas with the potential flooding threat. We may be potentially looking at a Cat 3 minimal hurricane making landfall, then meandering and impacting this region for as long as about a week.

My prayers to everyone out there who are facing this prospect for days to come.

This has a shot to get to cat 3 or 4. This is indeed looking horrible for the coast of Texas. From South Padre to Houston massive flooding regardless.

My gut tells me that this is the storm that ends the major hurricane drought the US has seen since Wilma.

Looks to be an important storm. And really have to know more about its exact course and how much time it will spend over water, how much, if any, time will it spend over south central Texas coastal area. This is still a very delicate and difficult forecast. We can expect changes. We know that its very likely that a hurricane packing a wallop will be very near the Corpus area, but details and exact forecast remain to be filled in by the models.

[hurricaneCW]

I'm seeing outflow becoming better established and a curvature to that big blob with banding starting to form.

My opinion only but think we'll easily get a major out of this, possibly a Cat 4. Catastrophic disaster already expected with the flooding but it's about to get even worse.

[drezee]

The minute I read this I knew it was going to say Avila at the bottom.

"There are some unconfirmed reports of stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center, but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for confirmation."

Yes....typically caution on the side of least regret...something like...even though drop showed 40kts surface winds it is likely that the recon did not sample the strongest winds therefore we are setting to 55mph or 60mph

[hd44]

Gfs did fantastic with Hato and forecasting its ri. If the 00z is right, it is about to do a similar job here. It did good with Gert after it formed. So seeing some improvements in the intensity in the Atlantic with the new Gfs.

[northjaxpro]

This situation is so so worrying and I can't help but think about all the flooding just recently in that area and Southeast Texas coastal region. This is just the worst possible situation I could ever imagine currently. The ground is already very saturated and this storm, as pointed out by a couple others, could reach category 4 hurricane status. That is frightening . I am very concerned and my prayers again to everyone out there in Texas. Please be safe, take all necessary precautions to get out of harm's way, but most importantly, please protect your lives and this is from a very concerned long time Storm2k member. Please take care out there and my prayers to all!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

It's not in my neck of the woods.Is anybody upto speed with the tides and moon phase @ the
modeled landfall date and approximate speculated time of coastal crossing.

[hd44]

See models of Harvey post... gfs coming in significantly stronger.

[GCANE]

This is what I have been worried about.
As Harvey deepens it may connect with the EPAC pool of high-energy air.
MIMIC-TPW is a great tool to see this.
It looks like Harvey has indeed done this.
You can see the "river" opening up over the Yucatan thru Guatemala,
This is an almost unlimited source of energy, not to mention the hot water in the GOM.
The only impairment is the dry slot to Harvey's west.

[Hammy]

Nine hours apart.

[northjaxpro]

This is what I have been worried about.
As Harvey deepens it may connect with the EPAC pool of high-energy air.
MIMIC-TPW is a great tool to see this.
It looks like Harvey has indeed done this.
You can see the "river" opening up over the Yucatan thru Guatemala,
This is an almost unlimited source of energy, not to mention the hot water in the GOM.
The only impairment is the dry slot to Harvey's west.

This GCANE!!

Good post here..This is also my extreme worry. Storm surge will be bad, but on top of that, all that deep, tropical moisture converging potentially in that region. A meandering powerful tropical cyclone just pumping in all that rain and no where for that water to go, with the ground already saturated!

This is very worrisome situation no doubts about it!

[tolakram]

SLIDER IR
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4623&y=6189&z=3&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

MESOSCALE 1min intervals
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1033&y=963&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=10&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Hurricaneman]

Based on what I'm seeing this is even intensifying faster even than the current GFS is showing, this is really looking ugly as I can't rule out a high category hurricane, even have a 15% chance of a 5 looking at things and then An upper echelon rain event and possibly another hurricane landfall in Louisiana, this is just as scary a hurricane potential as some of those 2005 deals