ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hd44]

Gfs doesn't retrograde it this run... but still 24 + inches for Houston. I think this is locked in now. Regardless of retrograde the insane heavy rain event will still occur.

[GCANE]

Outflow on the west picking up fast.
Equatorward channel kicking in.
May even get a poleward one from the ULL in the Atlantic at 30N 65W.

[northjaxpro]

Harvey is going to bomb out folks. Plain and simple!!

There are nothing now to impede the rapid development of this tropical cyclone. This is becoming the worst possible scenario you can imagine

1 Ideal upper level conditions for rapid intensification up to landfall.
2. Bath water ssts providing plenty of fuel and energy for this cyclone to thrive!!
3. Saturated ground in Southeast TX already in place to further compound the anticipated massive flood event
4. A meandering cyclone in weak steering currents for up to a week potentially.

This is just only a few of the dire concerns.

Prayers to all out there in the path of this dangerous storm!! Please take every precaution to protect your life and those of your loved ones!!

[KWT]

Okay well maybe the NAM isn't that crazy. Hopefully the dry air somehow keeps it in check. Thankfully there's disagreement between the Euro and the GFS.

The NAM is probably still majorly overdoing it (I mean latest run makes Harvey the strongest Atlantic storm ever) but gotta give it credit IF the system does undergo RI, its was one of the only models to really do that. UKMO probably is the next best in terms of possible intensity, its been consistent in showing a cat-2 into Texas/Mexico, even when GFS/ECM were barely doing anything with it.

Anyway as others have said, little really in the way of Harvey today, and this part of the gulf has produced a fair few rapidly developing canes in the past.

[GCANE]

Looking at 8.4um.
There are some extreme helicity towers firing off.
Will be very interesting to see VIS when the sun comes up.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[stormreader]

This is starting to remind me of the bad storms of the past. Gulf does it again.

Last really tough one in that area was Celia 1970. 945 mb 125mph but gusts much higher.

[stormreader]

Wow. What a change in organization overnight. Today will likely be a day of critical decisions in the Corpus Christi area.

Hopefully the local officials are getting all the info they need.

Time for action now. Any changes in models as far as the Corpus area go are likely to be very small. The storm will be very near Corpus Christi. Only question is intensity. Not looking good there. Time for folks there to take action (if they haven't done so already).

[hd44]

This is starting to remind me of the bad storms of the past. Gulf does it again.

Last really tough one in that area was Celia 1970. 945 mb 125mph but gusts much higher.

Hurricane Allen too and Bret.

[Kingarabian]

Harvey is going to bomb out folks. Plain and simple!!

There are nothing now to impede the rapid development of this tropical cyclone. This is becoming the worst possible scenario you can imagine

1 Ideal upper level conditions for rapid intensification up to landfall.
2. Bath water ssts providing plenty of fuel and energy for this cyclone to thrive!!
3. Saturated ground in Southeast TX already in place to further compound the anticipated massive flood event
4. A meandering cyclone in weak steering currents for up to a week potentially.

This is just only a few of the dire concerns.

Prayers to all out there in the path of this dangerous storm!! Please take every precaution to protect your life and those of your loved ones!!

Hey northjaxpro, I agree with your assessments but I would like to see a ring on 37ghz microwave before I can declare rapid intensification.

[NDG]

I hope the residents of S TX to the central TX coast are ready for a potential Major Hurricane impacts,IMO.
What will make it worst is its slow movement.
Very good organization during the night, lets see what the recon this morning finds out, it could make the GFS right on its intensification forecast.

[loon]

there is no time for evac of a major city =(

[NDG]

there is no time for evac of a major city =(

I hope the residents of Corpus Christi do leave.

[Kingarabian]

To be honest people should've been prepping since this past weekend when the models changed their tracks and started sending this into Texas.

Alyono prepped canned goods and water well in advance.

[Ntxw]

I hope the residents of S TX to the central TX coast are ready for a potential Major Hurricane impacts,IMO.
What will make it worst is its slow movement.
Very good organization during the night, lets see what the recon this morning finds out, it could make the GFS right on its intensification forecast.

http://i.imgur.com/pHY5aT5.gif

It is very disconcerting to see. I agree it looks very well organized on satellite now, and a cat 3 maybe cat 4 landfall looks possible.

[NDG]

To be honest people should've been prepping since this past weekend when the models changed their tracks and started sending this into Texas.

Alyono prepped canned goods and water well in advance.

This past Sunday night people that follow the CMC thought that Harvey was making landfall in Tampico tonight
So they did not get prepared.

[Kingarabian]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

[Kingarabian]

To be honest people should've been prepping since this past weekend when the models changed their tracks and started sending this into Texas.

Alyono prepped canned goods and water well in advance.

This past Sunday night people that follow the CMC thought that Harvey was making landfall in Tampico tonight
So they did not get prepared.

Shame all that computing power is wasted on models like the CMC.

[lester]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

That's going to change pretty soon with hurricane warnings up..

[hd44]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

Correct ... this crazy. 36 hours before the storm and nothing. Corpus Christi is a major city (8th biggest in Texas). The floods could hit from San Antonio - Houston. I would think this requires 24/7 coverage.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

Wait until it actually gets going, the news will be all over it like they were with Matthew and residents of Cape Canaveral....