ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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amawea
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2021 Postby amawea » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:32 am

Another thing, with all the rain that is forecast it won't take a lot of wind to down large trees. If you are in a house that has large trees around it be aware. I have seen many news reports in storm damaged areas of people being killed by downed trees. Be aware!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2022 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:33 am

Steve wrote:
RL3AO wrote:In addition to the wide scale heavy rain/flooding threat, the wind and storm surge threat near and just north of landfall has drastically increased. 6 to 10+ feet of surge inundation expected.


Yeah, that pretty much sucks. If it can get larger and can make it to Category 3 by landfall - then it just basically spins around a radius of a hundred miles or less for 2 days right along the coast, it's almost unimaginable. I'm nearly positive that the wind won't be anywhere near as strong as what Andrew brought on shore to Homestead 25 years ago. But that blew through in a matter of several hours. We're talking possibilities of eyewall conditions (off and on) for 2 or more days. That doesn't happen EVER. As noted in the model thread as well, that also means potentially a rain shield over SE Texas lasting anywhere from 3-5 days. Think about that. Sometimes it rains all night or all afternoon or whatever. But it never rains for 3 days with embedded tropical storm conditions. I've been here since the beginning and I'm old. But I've never quite seen the potential this has compared to any other storm I ever witnessed. I'm not trying to be Doom Guy. This is real and probably historic.


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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2023 Postby PineyWoods » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:33 am

Got family that are down in Victoria and west to Beeville. But immediate concern is for my sister in Port Lavaca. She teaches and said earlier this morning that school was letting out at noon tomorrow. I wonder if they might not rethink that? I was just a little kid and lived in Port Lavaca when Carla came through in '61. I pray those people pay attention to all of these watches and warnings.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2025 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:34 am

amawea wrote:Another thing, with all the rain that is forecast it won't take a lot of wind to down large trees. If you are in a house that has large trees around it be aware. I have seen many news reports in storm damaged areas of people being killed by downed trees. Be aware!


IIRC most of the fatalities in Katrina's Florida landfall were from falling trees so that's a valid point.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2026 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:35 am

PineyWoods wrote:She teaches and said earlier this morning that school was letting out at noon tomorrow. I wonder if they might not rethink that?


That would be insane and puts the lives of children, parents, and teachers at risk.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2027 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:36 am

State of Emergency and mandatory evacuations need to be declared soon...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2028 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:39 am

12z GFS has this down to 938mb in 36 hours. Stunning.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2029 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:39 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:State of Emergency and mandatory evacuations need to be declared soon...


They are probably trying to coordinate how to evacuate so many ppl on such short notice..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2030 Postby stephen23 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:40 am

Not sure what Abbott is waiting for. This is an area with not so good evacuation routes. The evacuations need to start now
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2031 Postby JaxGator » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:41 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:State of Emergency and mandatory evacuations need to be declared soon...


I would think so since how quickly Harvey is strengthening. They would have to start evacuations today/now. The rain, wind, and storm surge will have far reaching effects. Those storm surge hights forecasted are horrible.
Last edited by JaxGator on Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2032 Postby Janie2006 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:42 am

Trees with shallow root systems, like pines, are especially vulnerable to wind/rain events.

This could very well be historic should the models prove correct.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2033 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:43 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:State of Emergency and mandatory evacuations need to be declared soon...


Texas has already declared a state of emergency. I just posted about some evacuations in the Obs and News thread.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2034 Postby snoop9928 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:43 am

How far reaching are the winds looking to be? I'm in Houston and am ready for heavy heavy rains, but will we be having strong winds too?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 10 AM CDT Advisory=Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

#2035 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:44 am

MGC wrote:Current forecast track has Corpus Christi in RFQ. Bay is shaped like a funnel. Damage from surge could be total along the coast. Mustang Island and Padre Island will be overwashed by surge and large waves. Doubt many structures survive on the barrier islands. Its time to evacuate if you live along the coast. This potentially could be another Ike or Katrina surge event....MGC


It depends tbh. Ike and Katrina were massive systems. Harvey right now reminds me of Dennis 2005 size wise. Harvey should definitely grow in size as it approaches the coast... Especially if it undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle tomorrow before landfall. But I'm not sure it will get as big as Ike or Katrina.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion: 10 AM CDT Advisory=Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

#2036 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:46 am

MGC wrote:Current forecast track has Corpus Christi in RFQ. Bay is shaped like a funnel. Damage from surge could be total along the coast. Mustang Island and Padre Island will be overwashed by surge and large waves. Doubt many structures survive on the barrier islands. Its time to evacuate if you live along the coast. This potentially could be another Ike or Katrina surge event....MGC


Makes me really sad because Mustang and North Padre island are really beautiful, my family goes there almost every year when we go to visit family in Corpus Christi(who I've been contacting).
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2037 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:46 am

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone along the Tx coastline. Those who are stubborn and are staying...fill up every container you can find right NOW and put them in your freezer...They will help to keep your food cold for an extended period of time should you lose power for an extended period of time.. Fill up your bathtubs with water. Get propane or charcoal for your bbq's. Pleaseee leave if you live along the coastlines. Many people along the coast haven't experienced anything like this before. Heed the warnings..listen to local officials and stay safe!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2038 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:47 am

If you want to see what I think is the most impressive satellite view of Harvey, check out this GOES 16, mesoscale sector 5, band 2 (a visible wavelength band) animation at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

More images from RAMSDIS can be seen at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oes-16.asp ... The individual quads of Harvey get their own sectors, but sector 5 currently covers the cyclone in its entirety.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2039 Postby JGrin87 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:47 am

you can see that the eye wall is clearly starting to come out now, based on the most recent satellite presentation:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion:(Forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall)

#2040 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:49 am

by the way.. if the stall happens just on shore like within 5 to 20 miles.. weakening would be much slower and a prolonged high event ontop of rain and surge would not be good..
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