ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241657
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 49 20170824
164700 2440N 09307W 8426 01479 0002 +162 +162 132061 062 044 012 03
164730 2441N 09306W 8428 01479 9997 +164 +164 131059 060 042 009 00
164800 2442N 09305W 8427 01483 9998 +162 //// 134059 060 040 006 01
164830 2443N 09303W 8428 01485 9999 +166 +159 135058 059 039 005 00
164900 2444N 09302W 8434 01483 0000 +172 +162 134057 059 040 005 00
164930 2445N 09301W 8429 01490 0004 +170 +168 138056 056 039 007 00
165000 2446N 09300W 8426 01492 0006 +169 +158 137057 057 039 008 00
165030 2447N 09259W 8430 01489 0008 +172 +167 139053 056 038 007 00
165100 2448N 09257W 8428 01498 0014 +167 +165 140053 056 039 007 00
165130 2449N 09256W 8430 01496 0022 +166 +166 133053 055 047 024 03
165200 2450N 09255W 8433 01490 0026 +170 +170 129050 054 047 027 00
165230 2451N 09254W 8425 01498 0022 +171 +171 126047 051 043 024 03
165300 2452N 09252W 8449 01479 0025 +168 +168 136049 050 041 008 03
165330 2453N 09251W 8412 01520 0025 +169 //// 136049 050 041 005 01
165400 2454N 09250W 8434 01500 //// +172 //// 136048 049 043 002 01
165430 2455N 09249W 8422 01516 //// +170 //// 136049 050 041 002 01
165500 2456N 09247W 8430 01509 //// +169 //// 136047 050 041 001 01
165530 2457N 09246W 8425 01516 0030 +169 +168 135046 046 041 001 01
165600 2458N 09245W 8430 01511 0028 +171 +165 133046 047 038 001 01
165630 2459N 09244W 8416 01526 0036 +174 //// 126041 048 037 009 05
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

this would have a chance were it not for big brother to the west

Yup. This should mainly be a heavy rain threat for Florida- especially South Florida. Harvey's shear should keep it from intensifying to any wind speeds greater than what our normal thunderstorms deliver.

yes and the overs may win after it all said and done once that convection to the south moves over the so fl area

SE Florida atmosphere has done a good job of reloading from earlier today, relatively quiet over the se gulf

[Patrick99]

Mostly the drizzles going on with a few periods of harder rain. I even heard some thunder a few minutes ago.....I didn't think there would be enough destabilization for that, with the overcast skies this morning.

[alienstorm]

Had a good squall come through (near Miccosukee) with almost 3 inches in 30 minutes and 50mph winds.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 241716
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 51 20170824
170700 2520N 09218W 8429 01533 0049 +174 +171 136043 044 029 003 00
170730 2521N 09217W 8430 01533 //// +170 //// 133042 043 029 003 01
170800 2522N 09215W 8428 01537 //// +170 //// 134042 043 030 003 01
170830 2523N 09214W 8428 01538 0052 +175 +169 137043 043 029 002 00
170900 2524N 09213W 8432 01534 0054 +174 +166 137043 044 029 001 00
170930 2525N 09212W 8428 01539 0056 +174 +165 138044 044 029 000 00
171000 2526N 09210W 8429 01540 0057 +175 +162 138044 044 030 000 00
171030 2527N 09209W 8428 01542 0058 +175 +160 139043 043 028 001 00
171100 2528N 09208W 8430 01539 0059 +172 +164 140042 043 029 000 00
171130 2529N 09207W 8432 01538 0060 +175 +165 140041 042 029 001 00
171200 2531N 09205W 8429 01543 0060 +175 +165 138041 041 030 001 00
171230 2532N 09204W 8429 01544 0061 +175 +162 137041 041 030 001 00
171300 2533N 09203W 8430 01543 0061 +176 +160 136040 041 029 001 00
171330 2534N 09201W 8429 01546 0063 +177 +161 135040 040 029 001 03
171400 2535N 09201W 8414 01556 0058 +176 +158 132040 040 024 003 03
171430 2537N 09201W 8125 01846 0050 +156 +141 133038 040 /// /// 03
171500 2539N 09200W 7692 02312 0044 +139 +111 134038 039 /// /// 03
171530 2541N 09200W 7353 02694 0044 +118 +084 138042 043 /// /// 03
171600 2543N 09200W 7065 03030 0045 +099 +065 143044 045 /// /// 03
171630 2545N 09200W 6766 03388 0044 +075 +062 139044 046 /// /// 03
$$
;

Mission over.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow so close but so far you get a ton several miles west of us, and only a steady rain just east of the turnpike.

[jlauderdal]

Mostly the drizzles going on with a few periods of harder rain. I even heard some thunder a few minutes ago.....I didn't think there would be enough destabilization for that, with the overcast skies this morning.

we just had thunder but also had some brighter skies not sunny around 11 so had some heating...heavy rain inbound from the sw..currently sitting at 2.8 at the the house

[jlauderdal]

Had a good squall come through (near Miccosukee) with almost 3 inches in 30 minutes and 50mph winds.

i need that over an official reporting station...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Anyone have an official rain amount for the Westchester area of Miami Dade or access to what the Hurricane Center has measured so far.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KWBC 241723
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 24/17:07:53Z
B. 24 deg 18 min N
093 deg 32 min W
C. NA
D. 63 kt
E. 045 deg 10 nm
F. 143 deg 75 kt
G. 055 deg 17 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 16 C / 2055 m
J. 22 C / 2232 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN WSW
M. C25
N. 12345 / NA
O. .1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 1309A HARVEY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 055 / 17 NM 17:03:23Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 120 / 12 KTS

NOAA plane: down to 979mb.

[ronjon]

Pretty heavy storms migrating north from MIA along the gold coast.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/miami/amx/?region=pie

[jlauderdal]

Anyone have an official rain amount for the Westchester area of Miami Dade or access to what the Hurricane Center has measured so far.

i looked t the wundermap on weatherunderground and totals are approx 1.25 which makes send since most of the action was right on the coast this morning...pouring now at my house

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 40% in 5 days.

A trough of low pressure near the Florida peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across the
Bahamas, southern and central Florida, and the adjacent waters.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward to northeastward during the next day or two. Some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves northeastward over the
western Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[jlauderdal]

[jlauderdal]

2 PM TWO up to 40% in 5 days.

A trough of low pressure near the Florida peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across the
Bahamas, southern and central Florida, and the adjacent waters.
Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward to northeastward during the next day or two. Some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend or
early next week while the system moves northeastward over the
western Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

they are definitely liking it...this invest has been tough

3.51 at the house and still pouring

[northjaxpro]

Yeah now up to 40% chance over 5 days.

Broad, ill defined circulation roughly about 75-100 miles due west of Fort Myers currently on visible imagery. Needs convection. Northerly shear from Harvey's outflow shearing the system.

[tgenius]

That 6.5 inch number was based on the sum of Dade/Broward/PB? If so, then yeah 6.5 will probably be destroyed hah!

[northjaxpro]

FWIW, showers have increased just a bit the past 2-3 hours around the weak circulation due west of Fort Myers. 92L battling Harvey's outflow, which is imparting shear over it. It is however still hanging in there.
92L : The invest that refuses to die.. I think 92L will finally develop once into the Atlantic in a few days.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

We must be in so sort of void in my area, we have gotten rain over the last few days but nothing special.