ATL: HARVEY - Models

[AJC3]

So the same area will get hit twice within 24 hours by the same system? Has that ever occurred?

TS/TD Gordon, NOV 1994 struck ECFL 4 days apart, albeit the second time was in a MUCH weakened state.

[Blinhart]

So the same area will get hit twice within 24 hours by the same system? Has that ever occurred?

TS/TD Gordon, NOV 1994 struck ECFL 4 days apart, albeit the second time was in a MUCH weakened state.

I think Juan in 85 or so did a double loop, the flooding around here was pretty bad.

[hriverajr]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

[Blinhart]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

Not that unusual if I say so myself.

[Frank P]

This GFS run is much better for LA, not so much for TX... through H210 approaching NE LA near the Ark border!

[hriverajr]

I am just saying from personal experience, in the western Gulf in August. Have a number of examples?

[Frank P]

Allison but it was a June storm

[wxmann_91]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

Hurricane Earl in 1998 (around the turn of the month) and Hurricane Danny in 1997 (in July)

[Frank P]

18Z GFS run pretty much ignores coastal LA... not very consistent with previous runs in the later phase.. got to see what the EURO run does...

[BigB0882]

The only way I am going to buy this GFS run is if the Euro shows a big swing that way. If it sticks to its guns for, what, the 5th run in a row, then I can't ignore it.

[hriverajr]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

Hurricane Earl in 1998 (around the turn of the month) and Hurricane Danny in 1997 (in July)

Hmm none of them really fit the bill.. They all had a movement component east of north from the getgo. I still think this storm might have quite a few surprises regarding movement.. (just a hunch)

[Frank P]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

Hurricane Earl in 1998 (around the turn of the month) and Hurricane Danny in 1997 (in July)

Hmm none of them really fit the bill.. They all had a movement component east of north from the getgo. I still think this storm might have quite a few surprises regarding movement.. (just a hunch)

Well the 18Z GFS is not buying any eastward movement either...

[South Texas Storms]

I have not researched extensively but is it not a bit rare for a tropical system to move east near the gulf coast in August? Just makes me wonder... I know its a unique synoptic setup but still.

Hurricane Earl in 1998 (around the turn of the month) and Hurricane Danny in 1997 (in July)

Hmm none of them really fit the bill.. They all had a movement component east of north from the getgo. I still think this storm might have quite a few surprises regarding movement.. (just a hunch)

Yeah we can't totally rule out a track that just keeps tracking northwestward into Mexico. Some models (including some Euro ensemble members) still show that as a possibility.

[Nederlander]

Well I'm a little stunned that the Euro and GFS are so split right now. Makes the job even tougher for the NHC. Both have struggled with Harvey, but one is going to really wind up looking bad. Looks as though the NHC is aligning more with the Euro, but this is always subject to change. Something will have to give in the next 48 hours.

[OntarioEggplant]

Models have never really handled poor steering currents for tropical systems well. This is one of those times. I distinctly remember in the past similar situations where the TC drifted a completely different direction than models suggested.

[CrazyC83]

I think the key is the strength come Sunday into Monday. A stronger storm would interact with a weak trough over the Midwest and be pulled back over water and northeast. A weaker storm (i.e. 990 or shallower) would probably miss that trough and be stuck over Texas through mid-week.

[South Texas Storms]

I think the key is the strength come Sunday into Monday. A stronger storm would interact with a weak trough over the Midwest and be pulled back over water and northeast. A weaker storm (i.e. 990 or shallower) would probably miss that trough and be stuck over Texas through mid-week.

I don't think that's the case. I think it depends just which ridge is stronger. If the high over the eastern Gulf has more push than the one over the Southwest U.S., Harvey will likely get stuck over Texas longer.

[Javlin]

I think the key is the strength come Sunday into Monday. A stronger storm would interact with a weak trough over the Midwest and be pulled back over water and northeast. A weaker storm (i.e. 990 or shallower) would probably miss that trough and be stuck over Texas through mid-week.

I don't think that's the case. I think it depends just which ridge is stronger. If the high over the eastern Gulf has more push than the one over the Southwest U.S., Harvey will likely get stuck over Texas longer.

So is that the clear area I see in the SW moving E ATTM?I am terrible at seeing HP on a WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

[South Texas Storms]

I think the key is the strength come Sunday into Monday. A stronger storm would interact with a weak trough over the Midwest and be pulled back over water and northeast. A weaker storm (i.e. 990 or shallower) would probably miss that trough and be stuck over Texas through mid-week.

I don't think that's the case. I think it depends just which ridge is stronger. If the high over the eastern Gulf has more push than the one over the Southwest U.S., Harvey will likely get stuck over Texas longer.

So is that the clear area I see in the SW moving E ATTM?I am terrible at seeing HP on a WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

Yeah that dry air is associated with the SW ridge.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The 18z gfs runs have been different every day for this storm. I'm not paying any attention to them nor the 06z for that matter. Yesterdays showed Harvey dip down into Mexico then back into the gulf near Brownsville, then the remnants moved ne into and along south LA. Tuesdays showed it going into deep Texas around Austin then back out into the gulf and redeveloping into a hurricane and hitting SW LA. Monday went due north up the Texas state line then east across north LA. IMO it's still struggling mightily in the medium range and will continue bouncing all around.