ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Should be in that eddy soon..might be in it now. Nitris oxide!!

[Kingarabian]

These are the flight levels of the 2 planes in there right now:
Air Force plane at 700mb level. (around 10,000 feet most of the time)
NOAA plane at 750mb level. (around 8,000 feet most of the time)

So instead if you're flying lower, the winds are supposed to come in stronger?

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like maybe an erc is going on right now, could have a larger eye by morning

[BYG Jacob]

[img]picture[img]

There's no way that's still above 970

That's what we're all thinking.

If I had to make an educated guess, I'd go with mid to low 960s

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like maybe an erc is going on right now, could have a larger eye by morning

Nothing in VDMs to suggest that... Unless something is found on this latest pass in which case it would be in the very early stages.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 AUG 2017 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 25:15:56 N Lon : 94:40:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 971.7mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 4.1

[ROCK]

Got to be sub 970 now..has to be..

Um maybe I am blind from looking at the eclipse but this does not look like 4.7 raw T

[BRweather]

Man....

Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.

[chaser1]

Been a few hours since I checked in. Looks like he is still a cat 1? Is he weakening atm or something? What is the update?

No, quite the contrary. I just analyzed a couple different satellite presentations and am of the belief that Harvey might well be about to undertake another significant drop in pressure. I do see what appears to be a light southerly component of shear but then again, Harvey does seem to be continuing a NNW motion at this time and that would also negate any short term minimal impact that some minimal southerly shear might impact. I sincerely believe that between now and noon tomm. , there will probably be an average of a 2mb per hour pressure drop. Echoing what another poster mentioned recently, a (hopeful) silver lining might be that as Harvey really slows down on approach to landfall, that hopefully its vertical structure might be interrupted just enough... along with eventual possible impact of up-welling, so that if all are lucky we might just see a deadly Cat 3 or 4 hurricane hopefully weaken to a Cat. 1 or 2 at landfall instead. Thats simply conjecture though and this is all seemingly changing by the hour.

[Blinhart]

Also another thing people aren't talking about is the build up of the seas if this does stall right at the coastline before deciding to move out. You are talking about a lot of roads and land will be washed away from the repeated beating of the waves. If anyone has driven on some of the roads in between Port Arthur and Cameron in Louisiana knows that the road is right there on the GoM with just sand between the road and the water. This highway has been replaced I don't know how many times and looks like this will be happening again.

[BYG Jacob]

Got to be sub 970 now..has to be..

Just a matter of how far below.

[BYG Jacob]

Man....

Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.

Yup. he's turning into a monster.

[BRweather]

967mb

[Aric Dunn]

95 mph is reasonable. going with 100 mph is possible too. but by the time recon is done given the trend. no need for a special advisory as the winds will continue to increase..

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There's no way that's still above 970

That shot is what most here dont want to see a pineye.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the biggest issue is that the low level and mid level circs are a little more tiltled.

[Alyono]

yeah, this is intensifying now

[ROCK]

Finally 967 geez..now for the winds to catch up

[ROCK]

yeah, this is intensifying now

Yeah he has hit the eddy that broke off the LC..it's making the run to major

[Sciencerocks]

Man....

Every new frame on IR is more and more impressive.

Red on the IR surrounding the eye, pin hole eye and what this tells me that this may become a major within the next 12 hours.