ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bizzles]

On the west side of Corpus trying to decide to leave or stay. No flood threat where I am at but that wind is pretty high.

Always refer to your local officials and nws!

I would at least be prepared to depart if needed.

[NotSparta]

So we don't know whether there is an EWRC or not?

[txwatcher91]

So we don't know whether there is an EWRC or not?

Not entirely sure but whole bottom half of inner eye collapsed and now it’s seems to be a larger eye.

[BRweather]

I really wish the ECMWF would stop initializing so weak

[smithtim]

Humm sad is this the crew of members who are wanting to see destruction and likely fatalities.

No, while I will admit monitoring & learning from these storms is extremely interesting to me and this one potentially going through RI is got my attention so can't sleep; I will also tell you that while laying down to sleep tonight my wife & I were actually just praying for and very concerned for the safety of family & friends we have in the Corpus Christi ( also Houston) area.

I believe theses boards are a positive way to share information, learn and discuss which is positive and why I partake. Unfortunately your post did not really add anything positive to the dialogue, but I do hope if anyone reading who may have forgotten that this is real stuff and real people will be affected hopefully they will change their mindset!

[Aric Dunn]

So we don't know whether there is an EWRC or not?

Not entirely sure but whole bottom half of inner eye collapsed and now it’s seems to be a larger eye.

First off.. the likelyhood of ERC at this stage is very low..

second there is little to no evidence of a ERC.... radar which is a great indicator of a ERC shows no definitive signs of a ERC.

third.. a ERC now would not relly change anything. so everyone needs to let it go..

and lastly ... when a ERC starts its very apparent and easily identifiable.

[lrak]

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
looks cmc is winning. im sleepless so take my words as wonderland

[BRweather]

looks like a jog to the west

[chaser1]

So we don't know whether there is an EWRC or not?

I personally buy less into Harvey thus far truly having already gone through a classic eye-wall replacement cycle and see the storm simply as evolving into a more mature hurricane. I think that the eye itself has been defined but then opened at one or two particular times. It was only today that the pressure field began to really constrict and become a tighter core. Even still, it appears as if the low level COC was tilted a bit to the East with the apparent western eye wall seemingly curved around its mid-level center slightly west of that point. That's all mute anyway given the most recent satellite presentation where it appears that the eye is further constricting and likely exhibiting further pressure falls as we speak. I still think we'll see 937mb before its all said and done, though i'd probably guess upper 940's or 950's at landfall

[chaser1]

So we don't know whether there is an EWRC or not?

Not entirely sure but whole bottom half of inner eye collapsed and now it’s seems to be a larger eye.

First off.. the likelyhood of ERC at this stage is very low..

second there is little to no evidence of a ERC.... radar which is a great indicator of a ERC shows no definitive signs of a ERC.

third.. a ERC now would not relly change anything. so everyone needs to let it go..

and lastly ... when a ERC starts its very apparent and easily identifiable.

You beat me to the punch lol

[NWgeorgiastormdawg]

Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE HARVEY STRENGTHENING...
...WINDS REACH 105 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 95.1 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
approach the middle Texas coast later today and make landfall Friday
night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or
just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165
km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible,
and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches
the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure recently reported by both
reconnaissance planes was 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During
the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country eastward through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday and Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
later this morning. These conditions are likely to persist
into Saturday in portions of the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey will begin to affect the
Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts later this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[smithtim]

2am is upto 105mph & down to 967mb... recall at 10pm they were at 85pm ( I believe it was a little stronger then, which they noted with use of words might be conservative).

Textbook definition of RI is 30 in 24



Praying for the safety of the good people of Texas!!!

[chaser1]

Definitely gotta get some sleep here. Someone wake me in about 20 mb's!

[Aric Dunn]

im surprised they went with the upper end of the wind speed... but at the same time given the trend it makes sense to increase the intensity methodically. next update will be a major hurricane..

to clairify not saying by 5am it will be a cat 3 ( but its likely) ..just saying they are anticipating deepening and will do it in steps.

[Aric Dunn]

ohh boy.. radar showing some not so good signs the last 30 mins..

[Bizzles]

105 mph 967 mb

Almost to Cat 3

[BRweather]

On second thought,

Radar seems to show a jog to the north. Lets see what recon sees

[Blinhart]

Someone needs to update the graphic still shows Cat 1 for Harvey or just wait 3 more hours and change it from Cat 1 to Cat 3.

[southerngale]

Humm sad is this the crew of members who are wanting to see destruction and likely fatalities.

Or perhaps it's the crew of people who are potentially in the path or have loved ones in the potential path. Regardless, this is a weather site and many people are fascinated by the weather and the unknown. It doesn't mean they wish destruction or fatalities.

[Alyono]

looks like a double eyewall structure has appeared on radar. This may be a quick one though