ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3081 Postby BRweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:02 am

If I looked correctly, from here on (Air Force just took off) we will have recon for the next 33 hours with only a couple 45 minute gaps in between.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3082 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:04 am

BRweather wrote:If I looked correctly, from here on (Air Force just took off) we will have recon for the next 33 hours with only a couple 45 minute gaps in between.


That will be really nice. The more Recon the better!
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3083 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:05 am

:uarrow:
Last edited by lrak on Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3084 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:05 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:Never pay for free weather information.


implying what ?





Im drunk I meant Storm2K and peo[le like you. = that have knowlege about upper atmosphere stuff
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3085 Postby meriland29 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:08 am

Current satellite imagery.. eye is looking rather robust the last few frames..

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3086 Postby BRweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:08 am

Wow

This is really kicking in on radar now. By the time recon arrives, I'm guessing 115 mph and down to 960mb
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3087 Postby ronyan » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:08 am

Looks like a sizable blow up in NW eyewall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3088 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:09 am

Sciencerocks wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:looks like a double eyewall structure has appeared on radar. This may be a quick one though


thats pulling threads.. the core continues to produce deeper convection and become more established. you can also follow a continuous band without a break feeding the eyewall. not quite there yet.



My theory on why this doesn't "bomb" is it has been dealing with southwesterly midlevel shear. This same thing happened to an eastern pacific hurricane earlier this year, Ike 2008, Gustav 2008, Rita 2005 and Frances 2004. This causes the system to keep having EWRC's as it forces "drier air" into the core.

This could very well strengthen slowly to a major before landfall of course...Ike couldn't quite do it after Cuba landfall.

The midlevel shear map on cimss also shown this earlier.


You are one of the few people that doesn't see this bombing. Those storms you name, either had things that working against it almost the whole time, or over performed what the models were showing. A couple of them weakened right before landfall, but all of them if you lived through them were not small weak systems. Ike and Gustav were horrible, and if it wouldn't of been for Katrina, Rita would of been talked about for years afterwards. So I don't even want Harvey to be compared to any of those systems.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3089 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:09 am

lrak wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
lrak wrote:Never pay for free weather information.


implying what ?





Im drunk I meant Storm2K and peo[le like you. = that have knowlege about upper atmosphere stuff

Did you evacuate?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3090 Postby SuperMarioBros99thx » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:10 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
BRweather wrote:The void to the southwest on radar?

Eyewall expanding? Will that fill back in?


thats very normal. it will come and go depending convective bursts.. you see it less in a mature hurricane.


but on another side note.. radar showing the eyewall deepening drastically .. the ingredients are there..

That could make me remember Hurricane Bret of 1999. Though i'm not born yet when Bret '99 occured, Bret '99 did a RI located close to Harvey of now. Harvey might become just as intense as Bret '99 or even higher, but let's see.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3091 Postby lrak » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:10 am

Ill be in and out though the night. If I type something wrong it's the late night blues.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3092 Postby Blinhart » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:11 am

BRweather wrote:Wow

This is really kicking in on radar now. By the time recon arrives, I'm guessing 115 mph and down to 960mb


I think that is minimum, could be by the 4am update it could be 130 MPH and pressure around 954.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3093 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:11 am

Quick capture from the Brownsville radar:

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3094 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:12 am

BRweather wrote:Wow

This is really kicking in on radar now. By the time recon arrives, I'm guessing 115 mph and down to 960mb


yes not looking good.. quite likely we will have a major hurricane shortly..

for now i take a brief nap .. alarm is set for recon arrival..
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3095 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:13 am

Harvey's appearance in the latest radar and satellite imagery continues to improve. I'm thinking we should have a major hurricane here shortly.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3096 Postby BRweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:14 am

Dang

Big upper-level mission today. 86 drops!

Code: Select all

A. THE GLOBAL HAWK (NA872) PLANS A 24 HR FLIGHT OVER
          HARVEY TOMORROW. TAKEOFF TIME SCHEDULED FOR 25/1400Z.
          ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 6O,000 FT. ANTICIPATING 86 DROPS.
          TIME ON STATION 25/1830Z.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3097 Postby meriland29 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:15 am

when is recon expected to update next?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3098 Postby BRweather » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:15 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Harvey's appearance in the latest radar and satellite imagery continues to improve. I'm thinking we should have a major hurricane here shortly.


What is the mood in Houston? Locals seem concerned?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3099 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:15 am

Blinhart wrote:
BRweather wrote:Wow

This is really kicking in on radar now. By the time recon arrives, I'm guessing 115 mph and down to 960mb


I think that is minimum, could be by the 4am update it could be 130 MPH and pressure around 954.


I don't think the plane will be back until around the 8am, so in all likelihood they won't go higher than 110 before that--they usually hesitate just below the next category if the plane is on the way.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3100 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:16 am

Hammy wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
BRweather wrote:Wow

This is really kicking in on radar now. By the time recon arrives, I'm guessing 115 mph and down to 960mb


I think that is minimum, could be by the 4am update it could be 130 MPH and pressure around 954.


I don't think the plane will be back until around the 8am, so in all likelihood they won't go higher than 110 before that--they usually hesitate just below the next category if the plane is on the way.


Didn't someone say the plane just took off? Shouldn't take 5 hours to get to the storm should it?
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