ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

95 KNOTS!

[BRweather]

HELLO!

WOW

[Bizzles]

Is that a 13mb drop in a couple hours?

[MaineWeatherNut]

Is that a 13mb drop in a couple hours?

If they go with that then yeah about that... It's prob. going to be a few mb higher on the VDM though.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Is that a 13mb drop in a couple hours?

Add 3 so a 10Mb drop it's still RI

[hurricaneCW]

I fear it may peak right around landfall.
Initially I thought it would rapidly strengthen yesterday and then weaken before it hit but dry air intrusions have allowed it to strengthen more steadily.

[GCANE]

[bahamaswx]

I see a 96kt SFMR and a 128kt FL reading. Looks like enough to upgrade to a major imo.

[GCANE]

[FLpanhandle91]

[Sciencerocks]

958mb with 10 knots of wind
D: 95 knots

A case could be made that this is now 95 knots.

[GCANE]

[USTropics]

The chance for seeing TS winds by 2PM today has moved further inland with the 5AM ET update. That has also impacted the parts of Texas that will be seeing TS winds by 8PM as well.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 9:05Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 17
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 8:49:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°57'N 95°29'W (25.95N 95.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 124 statute miles (200 km) to the E (89°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,736m (8,976ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 95kts (~ 109.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the E (86°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 164° at 96kts (From the SSE at ~ 110.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (83°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 958mb (28.29 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 96kts (~ 110.5mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the E (83°) from the flight level center at 8:46:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 330° at 10kts (From the NNW at 12mph)

[GCANE]

Very close to being a pinhole eye.
1 min IR is showing the strongest-yet towers firing on the eyewall.
RI not out of the question.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 1-13-200-1

[USTropics]

Recon making its second pass towards the center here in the next 15-20 minutes from the SE, should get a really good reading.

[Hammy]

Still 90kt on the latest position update.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I see a 96kt SFMR and a 128kt FL reading. Looks like enough to upgrade to a major imo.

I don't see 128 knots anywhere.

So far this mission:
30s flight level: 95 knots (109.3 mph) ... a previous mission was: 98 knots (112.8 mph)
10s flight level: 96 knots (110.5 mph) ... a previous mission was: 103 knots (118.5 mph)
10s estimated surface: 95 knots (109.3 mph) ... a previous mission was: 89 knots (102.4 mph)

Estimated surface winds higher, pressure lower, but flight level winds are not yet as high, though they haven't sampled everywhere yet.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...5 AM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 95.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I see a 96kt SFMR and a 128kt FL reading. Looks like enough to upgrade to a major imo.

I don't see 128 knots anywhere.

So far this mission:
30s flight level: 95 knots (109.3 mph) ... a previous mission was: 98 knots (112.8 mph)
10s flight level: 96 knots (110.5 mph) ... a previous mission was: 103 knots (118.5 mph)
10s estimated surface: 95 knots (109.3 mph) ... a previous mission was: 89 knots (102.4 mph)

Estimated surface winds higher, pressure lower, but flight level winds are not yet as high, though they haven't sampled everywhere yet.

The only thing I see that is "128" is 112 knots (128.9mph) for the highest momentary wind as measured by a sonde on the way down from the plane on the current mission. A previous mission had a higher value, 116 kts (133.5 mph).