ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

I feel like this is an EWRC but not like regular ones where the eyewall forms well outside of the inner eyewall than closes in, but rather one where an eyewall forms which incorporates part of the original eyewall, then just drains energy from the remaining unneeded matter until it has dissipated.

[NDG]

I bet WXMAN57 is pretty busy now, and has been for the last week or so. Would love to hear his analysis of this storm. Hope you are doing well buddy!

Just a few days ago he didn't think it was going to be this bad, he was thinking that it was going to be more of a rain event than a wind event, like many were thinking. Not a good situation, he's got to be so busy I feel bad for him.

[Hurricaneman]

I feel like this is an EWRC but not like regular ones where the eyewall forms well outside of the inner eyewall than closes in, but rather one where an eyewall forms which incorporates part of the original eyewall, then just drains energy from the remaining unneeded matter until it has dissipated.

Erc is almost complete, bad timing too

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/901053842787246081

Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
Current intensity of #Hurricane #Harvey of 110 mph & 950 mb pressure is the exact same landfall wind and pressure intensity of Ike (2008).
8:09 AM - Aug 25, 2017

The only difference Ike was weakening as it approached the TX coast, Harvey is strengthening, more dangerous storm, IMO.

And yet look at the devastation Ike caused.

If invoking the name of "Ike" gets people to be serious about their safety in this storm, all the better.

[bayoubebe]

Can someone please tell me how much Harvey will impact The Woodlands? Have family there that did not evacuate.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

What winds will Victoria see??? Anyone

Follow here
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVCT.html


Offically what may be expected.


If it was not for dry/air intrusion this would likely already be a cat5.

[Michele B]

What winds will Victoria see??? Anyone

With this storm, WATER is the worst danger.

Yes, there are strong winds, but don't just look at where the winds will be.

There will be DEVASTATING FLOODING over a much larger area than the winds, so look at the whole scenario before dismissing this if it seems the "eye" won't be coming over your area.

That said, IF YOU HAVE BEEN TOLD TO EVACUATE, YOU NEED TO DO IT. The longer you wait before leaving the more likely you will be to get caught up in traffic and ride out the worst of it in your vehicle on a highway somewhere.

[BRweather]

Update on future recon for those not aware. At 9:00AM CDT, NOAA has 2 flights departing.

1) For their lower-reconnaissance mission

2) Huge upper-level dropsonde mission in which the Global Hawk is anticipated to have 86 drops!

Looking forward to that being implemented into the models

[SouthDadeFish]

This is really not good. This is one thick cyan ring on 37-GHz imagery. Further rapid intensification seems quite possible at this point.

[tolakram]

Yet another opinion on ERC.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/901058429472702465




Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
Radar showing hints that #Harvey's eye is undergoing trochoidal wobbles within what could be a 2nd eyewall forming. ERC could occur soon.
8:27 AM - Aug 25, 2017

[FireRat]

I'm not too familiar with Rick Knabb, but two observations... He seems very intelligent and knows his stuff... and he seems very uncomfortable on camera lol.. how long has he been with TWC and am I the only one making these obs?

WHERE is Brian Norcross?

He's a calm, steadying voice, and many people trust what he tells them, after Andrew in Miami, I'm surprised they haven't got him on air here.

Is he on vacation or something?

Brian Norcross was in Miami doing the Andrew 25th Anniversary special for TWC, he said then that he was going to fly to TX sometime on Friday (today the 25th). Hopefully he gets there safely and at the right spot.

This storm is chugging along and might strike land as early as this evening, this is a storm we'll probably talk about for years to come. Hopefully the worst winds at least, miss highly populated spots.

[weatherwindow]

I'm not too familiar with Rick Knabb, but two observations... He seems very intelligent and knows his stuff... and he seems very uncomfortable on camera lol.. how long has he been with TWC and am I the only one making these obs?

WHERE is Brian Norcross?

He's a calm, steadying voice, and many people trust what he tells them, after Andrew in Miami, I'm surprised they haven't got him on air here.

Is he on vacation or something?

Rick Knabb had a long
career with the NHC as a senior/lead forecaster and lately as the Director....retired last year....Rich

[Alyono]

The inner-core is starting to look really good on radar now. Likely still rapidly intensifying. Recon should find pressures in the 940s next pass. This is scary. Praying for those in TX.

only other time I saw a storm go through an EWRC and intensify was Haiyan

[Alyono]

This is really not good. This is one thick cyan ring on 37-GHz imagery. Further rapid intensification seems quite possible at this point.

A prolonged RI cycle (and we've been borderline explosive intensification for the past 6 hours) would possibly result in the strongest hurricane to ever strike Texas.

This seems to be finally getting into the favorable environment the models have long advertised

[tolakram]

12:30z

[artist]

What winds will Victoria see??? Anyone

I believe you are in the 90+, as well as excessive flooding.
You are also under a surge warning.
Remember if you need help they can't get to you at the height of the storm. You are also under a mandatory evacuation.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... aAaYEEpCEc
FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads
area. Potential impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or was

[tolakram]

1 min visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1073&y=1021&z=1&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Winds really picking up in corpus christi

[artist]

I'm not too familiar with Rick Knabb, but two observations... He seems very intelligent and knows his stuff... and he seems very uncomfortable on camera lol.. how long has he been with TWC and am I the only one making these obs?

WHERE is Brian Norcross?

He's a calm, steadying voice, and many people trust what he tells them, after Andrew in Miami, I'm surprised they haven't got him on air here.

Is he on vacation or something?

He is in Atlanta.

https://m.facebook.com/TWCBryanNorcross

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Been a long time since I posted here, and grateful to the determined site manager for getting me back on after forgotten password. First, good wishes to all in the path of this storm and high hopes for heeding the advice provided by the experts and those responsible for public safety.

The sun is just rising on Bolivar Peninsula, Texas. Some kind person posted this live webcam link yesterday. Today the ocean is noticeably more rough. Just wish to leave it here for any interested in viewing live surf. https://www.bolivarpeninsulatexas.com/Webcams/Sunrise-Beach