ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Looks like this recon pass is going just south of the visible eye? Interesting.
Edit - nevermind, they hooked a 45 degree turn and went right through.

[Exalt]

That's not a dry slot, that's the eye clearing out.

[Janie2006]

The categories don't mean much in terms of impacts. Whether winds are 105, 110, 120 or 130 mph, the wind only impacts a relatively small area. The storm surge and (especially) rainfall will be much more impacting - and likely catastrophic. It's all splitting hairs...

Bingo. Within that eyewall, sure, those winds can make your 'hood look like an atomic testing ground. The difference between 120 and 125 is purely academic if you happen to be in the middle of *that*, which is *not* to downplay being in the eyewall at all. But that's only part of the bigger story. Surge and the flooding will impact many, many more people

[BYG Jacob]

Wow, looks like that eye is just offshore now. Coming in quickly

Still got a ways to go and still has time to strengthen.

[MrStormX]

I am not a professional meteorologist, but from my understanding it would be pretty unusual to get a dry spot right in the middle of the CoC when the rest of the storm is enveloped in organized and heavy moisture. Normally dry air is lofted into the center of the storm from the periphery, is it not?

IMO, this looks like a structural change related to the earlier ERC.

[careyb44]

Someone posted that Victoria could only see 77 mph max wind ?? That was Claudette in 03. I don't think we will see cat 2 winds inland?

Not to alarm you, but we were 80+ miles inland from Katrina with 70 to 80mph winds and had quite the damage. It's not so much the wind speed, but
the duration of the wind, as the soil gets more and more saturated. Trees were down all over when it ended. We will keep y'all in our thoughts and prayers.

[tolakram]

The Saffir Simpson scale has both saved lives and cost lives. Winds alone do not make a storm, so if in fact this is another Ike 'category 2' maybe the scale will finally be retired. My opinion.

Regardless, the NHC is doing their job and doing it well. Upgrading to a major is not as critical as upgrading to a TS in order to post warning, which they had to do up until this year. There is no room for NHC criticism here.

[Langinbang187]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

For the life of me I cannot find this dry slot.

[Aric Dunn]

181030 2658N 09601W 7436 02391 9772 +163 +133 198100 101 070 002 00
181100 2658N 09603W 7405 02415 9751 +165 +135 203100 101 074 002 00
181130 2658N 09605W 7402 02404 9730 +170 +125 204099 100 077 003 00
181200 2658N 09606W 7405 02375 9711 +170 +128 207101 102 077 003 00
181230 2657N 09608W 7327 02453 9683 +172 +132 215103 103 078 005 00
181300 2658N 09609W 7321 02437 9657 +172 +143 219106 108 081 011 00
181330 2658N 09611W 7365 02356 9629 +173 +145 221107 110 086 012 00
181400 2659N 09613W 7280 02420 9586 +174 +143 232093 105 089 006 00

[tolakram]

Peak 10-second Wind: 89 kt at 14°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 979.7 mb

NOAA plane

[ronjon]

Buoy 60 nm S-SE of Corpus Christi - 50kts sustained, gusts 60 kts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42020&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[dukeblue219]

By the way for those not following, the USAF plane is about to make its first pass through the storm in the next few minutes in addition to the NOAA plane that just went through. It'll be passing through the NE quadrant.

[Exalt]

You can see drier air pulling in to radar presentation off extreme south Texas, eroding rain bands in southern semicircle.

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

For the life of me I cannot find this dry slot.

It's the little open dot next to what looks like the eye, but to me this looks like the final remnants of the inner eyewall trying to have it's final say, while the outer eyewall is beginning to clear out as well.

[Ntxw]

The Saffir Simpson scale has both saved lives and cost lives. Winds alone do not make a storm, so if in fact this is another Ike 'category 2' maybe the scale will finally be retired. My opinion.

Regardless, the NHC is doing their job and doing it well. Upgrading to a major is not as critical as upgrading to a TS in order to post warning, which they had to do up until this year. There is no room for NHC criticism here.

Agreed it is mostly for Academia and us weather nerds for the books. On the ground, NHC has done a terrific job thus far with warnings well in advance and strong wording of potential destruction. It's just a matter of people making the right choice in critical hours.

We likely won't see the scope of the problems until many days after once the rainfall stops. Euro keeps this paralleling the coastal areas which is going to be a big disaster on its own even further inland. People who stayed even inland, if they need help may not be able to get it if emergency personnel can't get to them with flooded areas.

[BYG Jacob]

Peak 10-second Wind: 89 kt at 14°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 979.7 mb

NOAA plane

That doesn't seem right.

[Langinbang187]

Big dry slot in the western eyewall showing up on satellite as well.

For the life of me I cannot find this dry slot.

It's the little open dot next to what looks like the eye, but to me this looks like the final remnants of the inner eyewall trying to have it's final say, while the outer eyewall is beginning to clear out as well.

That's exactly what I'm thinking as well.

[RL3AO]

182800 2720N 09601W 6967 02955 //// +115 //// 147104 106 075 002 01
182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00

That should be enough for an upgrade.

[tolakram]

Peak 10-second Wind: 89 kt at 14°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 979.7 mb

NOAA plane

That doesn't seem right.

Yea, it's not, I thought it was accurately interpreting the raw data, but it's not.

181630 2707N 09620W 7220 02367 9431 +193 +143 243013 020 025 002 00
181700 2708N 09621W 7225 02364 9431 +201 +132 024007 011 016 001 03
181730 2709N 09623W 7222 02378 9443 +200 +120 021019 023 019 003 00

[Aric Dunn]

enough evidence now lol could go 120 if they wanted..

182830 2719N 09602W 6968 02936 //// +114 //// 146108 109 077 002 01
182900 2718N 09604W 6971 02919 9763 +115 +109 148110 112 079 003 01
182930 2717N 09605W 6962 02904 9727 +118 +113 149113 114 084 004 01
183000 2716N 09606W 6970 02874 9719 +120 //// 149115 116 088 011 01
183030 2715N 09607W 6967 02853 9704 +126 +126 153115 117 092 010 00
183100 2715N 09608W 6966 02828 9669 +138 +138 160115 117 094 009 00
183130 2714N 09609W 6978 02790 9636 +147 +147 164108 113 098 007 00
183200 2713N 09610W 6958 02797 9597 +137 //// 167098 106 097 005 05

[Janie2006]

Sustained TS-force winds not terribly far from the coastline now. All preparations should be completed. All of them.