ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NotoSans]

Down to 944mb as per latest center dropsonde. Maximum sustained winds probably near 100kt range.

[dukeblue219]

NOAA2 doing donuts around the center, looking for a specific drop point?

I don't see anything I'd call donuts, but they are keeping off-shore. Notice the shoreline.

[Cunxi Huang]

184100 2704N 09631W 6973 02782 9629 +152 +152 313091 096 100 018 00

100 KT SFMR

[davidiowx]

Sure seems like he's moving almost due north over the last hour or two. He's pretty close to Corpus Christi's latitude at this point. If I live near Matagorda Bay, should I start getting nervous?

Yeah.. Matagorda will get the brunt of the surge and winds and rain...

It does appear to keep jogging further and further N though. It's radar watching time now so we will see where it eventually ends up.

[Blown Away]

They might bump it up 5mph, but I think Harvey running out of GOM real estate to do much more...

[HurricaneRyan]

They need to update this to Cat 3.

[NDG]

Finally a recon confirms that it is a Cat 3.

[txwatcher91]

Appears to be deepening again, from 947 to 944 per the NOAA plan. Winds support a cat 3 as well.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 100kts

AL, 09, 2017082518, , BEST, 0, 271N, 963W, 100, 944, HU

[Airboy]

It getting stronger, no doubt about that.

[MrStormX]

It is definitely up to a C3, just give the NHC time to make it official.

[ConvergenceZone]

They might bump it up 5mph, but I think Harvey running out of GOM real estate to do much more...

Doesn't matter. Damage will be the same

[artist]

183500 2710N 09620W 6970 02662 9424 +176 +111 186021 026 038 000 00
183530 2710N 09622W 6969 02661 9420 +173 +129 200011 017 028 000 00
183600 2710N 09624W 6967 02658 9425 +166 +147 335007 012 024 000 00
183630
942found in last drop by usaf

[SunnyThoughts]

942 found in last drop by usaf

I thought from the beginning of intensification yesterday with all the models, that 940 was probably the lowest he would go. My estimate may have been high.

[tarheelprogrammer]

That, that is an eye there.

[Exalt]

I'm no pro-met, but a 125 mph and 935mb peak seems very attainable to me.

[galaxy401]

Finally, we can end the debate in whether this would reach major status or not.

[La Sirena]

I'm no pro-met, but a 125 mph and 935mb peak seems very attainable to me.

Me either but I'm not sure he's got much more time or ocean real estate to help achieve that....

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 18:39Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 18:16:43Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°08'N 96°20'W (27.1333N 96.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 78 statute miles (126 km) to the ESE (123°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,631m (8,632ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (143°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 224° at 113kts (From the SW at ~ 130.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,466m (8,091ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,761m (9,058ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 113kts (~ 130.0mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SE (141°) from the flight level center at 18:13:43Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 335° at 5kts (From the NNW at 6mph)

[Exalt]

I'm no pro-met, but a 125 mph and 935mb peak seems very attainable to me.

Me either but I'm not sure he's got much more time or ocean real estate to help achieve that....

Well if we're still on track, 8 good hours or so of time left on the ocean might be enough.