ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3921 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:17 pm

It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3922 Postby Exalt » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:17 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:To get a cat 4, the winds have to respond quicker than they currently are. But we may get a cat.4-esque pressure reading before landfall.


Isn't the pressure already there? 943mb on the last update.


In the EPac it's usually in the sub 940s, not sure if its different for the Atlantic.


Atlantic is weird, Matthew had a mid-Cat 4 pressure reading with Cat 5 winds. Also, it wouldn't be that hard for Harvey to reach sub-940mb considering the rate of deepening.

Recon did find 942 by the way I believe, but I'm not sure if it was flagged or not.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3923 Postby artist » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Something's wrong with the NOAA sat floater page, I get " [an error occurred while processing this directive]"

Does anyone have the direct link to the Harvey floater? Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3924 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

Boy eyes can be deceiving it looks closer to land than that:). I don't like the jump north
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3925 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

Now it looks like a proper hurricane on IR
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3926 Postby artist » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

Exalt wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Isn't the pressure already there? 943mb on the last update.


In the EPac it's usually in the sub 940s, not sure if its different for the Atlantic.


Atlantic is weird, Matthew had a mid-Cat 4 pressure reading with Cat 5 winds. Also, it wouldn't be that hard for Harvey to reach sub-940mb considering the rate of deepening.

Recon did find 942 by the way I believe, but I'm not sure if it was flagged or not.

No flag
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3927 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

At what point should this start to slow down? Are pressures increasing in W. Texas?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3928 Postby SunnyThoughts » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

Anybody have a list of stormchasers riding out the storm with live streaming? I'm sure there are more than a few. Mark Suddith I know is one probably. Anyone know anybody else?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3929 Postby ronjon » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:18 pm

weathaguyry wrote:God bless the people on the Texas Coast who are there to ride out the hurricane, this will be a historic hurricane, and it will not be quick to leave either!


The really scary no good horrible thing will be a night time landfall - the sounds of the high winds whistling, rattles in the house, loose objects hitting the outside of the house, blinding horizontal rainfall, losing power....its a nightmare for anyone having to experience it.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3930 Postby Meteorcane » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:19 pm

The scary thing is that Texas may still be dealing with Harvey this time next week. I am not sure if I buy the EC keeping Harvey as a low-end hurricane the whole period as although the Texas coastal plain is very flat it is still land. Although that won't really matter as even if it becomes only a tropical depression from a wind standpoint rainfall will still be measured in feet in many locations.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3931 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:19 pm

NDG wrote:It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.


Jeez another 10 hours... Yeah there shouldn't be a problem for it then. It'll be making landfall when people are sleeping...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3932 Postby MGC » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:20 pm

Yup only 10KTs to Cat-4. Harvey has a good chance of further intensification so obtaining Cat-4 status is quite a possibility. Watch for eye contracture. Sure would not want to be in the way of an intensifying Cat-3.....MGC
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3933 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:21 pm

Truly a spectacular, yet deadly tropical cyclone!! I am in complete awe like the rest of us. A truly historic storm.

I would not rule out Cat 4 at all. I still believe intensification will continue right up to near landfall.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3934 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.


Jeez another 10 hours... Yeah there shouldn't be a problem for it then. It'll be making landfall when people are sleeping...

many hurricanes have weakened on approach, little confidence on intensity especially as it nears landfall, you dont want to be in the path of a strengthening hurricane at landfall e.g charley
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3935 Postby jaguars_22 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:21 pm

Every jog north puts us in Victoria much worse conditions
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3936 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:22 pm

Exalt wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Isn't the pressure already there? 943mb on the last update.


In the EPac it's usually in the sub 940s, not sure if its different for the Atlantic.


Atlantic is weird, Matthew had a mid-Cat 4 pressure reading with Cat 5 winds. Also, it wouldn't be that hard for Harvey to reach sub-940mb considering the rate of deepening.

Recon did find 942 by the way I believe, but I'm not sure if it was flagged or not.


Not flagged, but extrapolated from the plane's altitude. The dropsonde had 944 with 11 knots though, so a point could be made for 942.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3937 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:23 pm

Looks like on microwave the eye is shrinking again.


Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion:

#3938 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:23 pm

Eye is warming, don't expect any kind of weakening the next few hours.

Image
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3939 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:It has a good 10 hrs if not a little longer over water so there is still a good chance for Cat 4, IMO.


Jeez another 10 hours... Yeah there shouldn't be a problem for it then. It'll be making landfall when people are sleeping...



Now, if it does not slow down soon like the GFS and Euro are showing then landfall could be as soon as 6-7 hrs, I just did the extrap based on the current pace.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Hurricane - Discussion: 2 PM CDT Update: Upgraded to cat 3 120 mph

#3940 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:25 pm

ronjon wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:God bless the people on the Texas Coast who are there to ride out the hurricane, this will be a historic hurricane, and it will not be quick to leave either!


The really scary no good horrible thing will be a night time landfall - the sounds of the high winds whistling, rattles in the house, loose objects hitting the outside of the house, blinding horizontal rainfall, losing power....its a nightmare for anyone having to experience it.


I know that feeling very well from Sandy, also add in the beeping of cars from the surge flooding them :(
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