ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Raebie]

As bad as the damage looks in Rockport, I admit I was expecting far worse based on those videos from last night.

I don't think we've seen the full picture yet. Still haven't seen much out of Port Aransas and Aransas Pass which was in the eyewall for hours.

Active search and rescue going on at a trailer park right now. Unconfirmed deaths being reported. The marina there was destroyed.

[sphelps8681]

It has been on and off rain since about noon. I have been getting some pretty strong bands with wind the last couple of times. Happening more frequently now. I am in East Tx.

Was starting to think we were not going to get anything. I guess that is what I get for thinking.

[hd44]

Worst still to come . Arw model points out 24 more inches for Houston area from 12z run.

[Callista]

Chances are there will be some deaths, but I think we're all still holding out for a miracle and a death toll of zero. I know we're all fascinated with the big ones here, but they are SO much easier to enjoy when nobody gets hurt. When people do get hurt, it's like a split between "This is so cool" and "Oh crap I wish this weren't happening", and you always feel a bit guilty for being fascinated with severe weather.

You know what I'd love? A really big Cat 5, in an uninhabited area, with plenty of experienced observers monitoring it, so we could just watch without worrying! Maybe one that stays out over the ocean, where all the shipping traffic can just go around it.

Speaking of people, I'm pretty sure the Red Cross and similar organizations are going to need donations in the near future; they are setting up an awful lot of shelters, and they are probably dipping into their reserve funding right now.

[Tireman4]

We are good so far. The break in the band's are helping. ..more rain to come

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to Tropical Storm.


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

...HARVEY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER TEXAS...
...EXTREMELY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 97.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[Janie2006]

Two mph. Two.

[artist]

Hotel some of the chasers were staying in Rockport
https://www.facebook.com/TornadoInterce ... 29/?type=3

[Dave C]

12z GFS has this down to 938mb in 36 hours. Stunning.

WOW that was extremely accurate! Post was made around noon on Thursday.

[Steve]

Not intending to bash, but Ryan Maue with the cherry pick. I'm kind of getting tired of particularly their obnoxious non weather tweets. I will call to his attention if he has a service looking for reactions around the web that Euro and GFS primarily had humps in the isobars crossing the ocean with 91L going into lower Central America and 92L into FL. Further, up until very recently, they barely acknowledged systems that existed and at best had raggedy tropical storms moving up into SE TX. I don't call that a win in any way, shape or form. I plan to go back and pull models from 10-12 days ago where available to set the record straight.

[Frank P]

latest radar loops hinting at perhaps a SE drift?? less than 1 mph of course..

[TheStormExpert]

Had a difficult time keeping up with the Harvey threads for awhile there. Hopefully there plenty of people heeded the warnings despite Harvey quickly intensifying to the deadly monster he became. This is surely the storm of the decade!

[CrazyC83]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Up to 1800Z August 26, here is what I would have for the BT for Harvey (from initial genesis):

AL092017, HARVEY, xx,
20170817, 1200, , TD, 13.1N, 53.3W, 30, 1008,
20170817, 1800, , TS, 13.0N, 55.0W, 35, 1006,
20170818, 0000, , TS, 13.0N, 56.6W, 40, 1004,
20170818, 0600, , TS, 13.0N, 58.3W, 40, 1004,
20170818, 1200, , TS, 13.1N, 60.2W, 35, 1006,
20170818, 1800, , TS, 13.4N, 62.0W, 35, 1007,
20170819, 0000, , TS, 13.6N, 63.2W, 35, 1006,
20170819, 0600, , TS, 13.7N, 65.0W, 35, 1006,
20170819, 1200, , WV, 13.8N, 67.0W, 30, 1008,
20170819, 1800, , WV, 13.9N, 68.8W, 30, 1009,
20170820, 0000, , WV, 14.1N, 70.8W, 30, 1008,
20170820, 0600, , WV, 14.2N, 72.9W, 25, 1008,
20170820, 1200, , WV, 14.4N, 75.0W, 25, 1008,
20170820, 1800, , WV, 14.7N, 77.0W, 25, 1008,
20170821, 0000, , WV, 15.1N, 78.7W, 25, 1008,
20170821, 0600, , WV, 15.7N, 80.5W, 25, 1008,
20170821, 1200, , WV, 16.4N, 82.5W, 25, 1008,
20170821, 1800, , WV, 17.2N, 84.6W, 25, 1008,
20170822, 0000, , WV, 18.0N, 86.4W, 25, 1009,
20170822, 0600, , WV, 18.7N, 87.9W, 25, 1010,
20170822, 1200, , LO, 19.5N, 88.9W, 25, 1010,
20170822, 1800, , LO, 20.0N, 89.8W, 25, 1010,
20170823, 0000, , LO, 20.6N, 90.5W, 25, 1009,
20170823, 0600, , LO, 20.9N, 91.5W, 25, 1008,
20170823, 1200, , TD, 21.3N, 92.4W, 30, 1006,
20170823, 1800, , TD, 21.5N, 92.6W, 30, 1005,
20170824, 0000, , TS, 22.0N, 92.5W, 35, 1003,
20170824, 0600, , TS, 22.8N, 92.5W, 45, 998,
20170824, 1200, , TS, 23.8N, 92.9W, 60, 985,
20170824, 1800, , HU, 24.4N, 93.6W, 75, 978,
20170825, 0000, , HU, 24.9N, 94.3W, 80, 973,
20170825, 0600, , HU, 25.6N, 95.1W, 90, 965,
20170825, 1200, , HU, 26.4N, 95.9W, 95, 950,
20170825, 1800, , HU, 27.1N, 96.3W, 105, 942,
20170826, 0000, , HU, 27.7N, 96.8W, 115, 939,
20170826, 0245, L, HU, 27.9N, 97.0W, 120, 937, Landfall, at S end of San Jose Island, max wind and min pressure
20170826, 0345, L, HU, 28.0N, 97.1W, 120, 939, Landfall, at Rockport, TX
20170826, 0500, L, HU, 28.2N, 97.1W, 110, 944, Landfall, 4 miles WNW of Holiday Beach, TX
20170826, 0600, , HU, 28.2N, 97.2W, 100, 948,
20170826, 1200, , HU, 28.6N, 97.3W, 65, 978,
20170826, 1800, , TS, 29.0N, 97.5W, 55, 988,

I figured it became a wave a bit sooner than operational, and was slightly stronger at the time of landfall based on the backside winds in the last Recon pass while the RFQ was onshore.

[funster]

latest radar loops hinting at perhaps a SE drift?? less than 1 mph of course..

It does kind of look that way. I think the Euro shows it eventually getting back in the GOM. Harvey is not in much of a hurry.

[sbcc]

Not intending to bash, but Ryan Maue with the cherry pick. I'm kind of getting tired of those guys and particularly their obnoxious non weather tweets.

Well, if you think he's taking credit for something he shouldn't then by all means call it to his attention. If you find the "non weather" tweets obnoxious, you can always choose not to view his Twitter feed or websites, thereby reducing his traffic and revenue. You both have freedom of speech and freedom of choice.

[psyclone]

Harvey had skeptics the whole time as he steadily climbed the ladder. I recall the "ragged" adjective being used 24 hours ago simply because the IR cloud tops warmed due to the sun. This storm steadily intensified (with some spurts tossed in) for 48 hours. it was remarkable persistent, relentless development. I am a believer in visible sat pics during the day and central pressure readings 24 hours a day (smoothed out) when trying to gauge development.

[CryHavoc]

Harvey had skeptics the whole time as he steadily climbed the ladder. I recall the "ragged" adjective being used 24 hours ago simply because the IR cloud tops warmed due to the sun. This storm steadily intensified (with some spurts tossed in) for 48 hours. it was remarkable persistent, relentless development. I am a believer in visible sat pics during the day and central pressure readings 24 hours a day (smoothed out) when trying to gauge development.

He also had people saying he was going to go Cat 5. There will always be a range of forecasts in this forum, and usually users either trend toward downplaying a system or hyping the hell out of it.

[jabman98]

latest radar loops hinting at perhaps a SE drift?? less than 1 mph of course..

It does kind of look that way. I think the Euro shows it eventually getting back in the GOM. Harvey is not in much of a hurry.

Was thinking the same thing. I'm watching the radar pretty closely because that outer band is pretty close to me. A few hours ago it was moving west and we got rain from it. Now it's very bright out and the band seems to be moving east again. The center of circulation also seem to be moving a tiny bit east or southeast. Is that sooner than forecast? Wasn't it supposed to go more west?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hey jaguars_22, you holding up ok in Victoria?

[psyclone]

Harvey had skeptics the whole time as he steadily climbed the ladder. I recall the "ragged" adjective being used 24 hours ago simply because the IR cloud tops warmed due to the sun. This storm steadily intensified (with some spurts tossed in) for 48 hours. it was remarkable persistent, relentless development. I am a believer in visible sat pics during the day and central pressure readings 24 hours a day (smoothed out) when trying to gauge development.

He also had people saying he was going to go Cat 5. There will always be a range of forecasts in this forum, and usually users either trend toward downplaying a system or hyping the hell out of it.

that is a very valid point. so the net effect is, for those paying close attention, you can really figure out who to pay attention to and who to disregard in future storms. it's how one can extract value from these forums going forward, especially if a storm is threatening your area..