ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

It's been mostly dry from this event here on the Treasure Coast. 2 inches or under, at best, since last Saturday.

[johngaltfla]

Just over 4" here today per my weather station. Worse however, NWS estimates show almost 10" of rain in Bradenton-Lakewood Ranch areas (in the past 6 hours) causing massive street flooding. I hope this doesn't develop but the situation is favorable for this sucker to get out over the Gulf Stream and strengthen. Good luck to you folks in the Carolinas, let's hope this is a fish before it gets too intense.

[smithtim]

92L will probably be in the vicinity of Hatteras by Tuesday afternoon.

Definitely agree with this. The million dollar question is how strong and in what form... I say weak STS

I think there will be a decent spin off the east coast of FL by tomorrow. Now the dynamics of that and the front are interesting. My guess is STS transitioning to TC further north. Most models are saying tropical storm force winds off the OBX by Tuesday.

Yeah that seems very likely! It's feeling very tropical stormish here in coastal NE Florida... no strong winds just has that tropical feel & the clouds look like it...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening all,

I have been watching the satellite and model runs the last few days. I may be way way off base here but I am just not seeing this develuopment of 92 L sliding up the eastern seaboard. Earlier on the visible there was no obvious strong counter clock wise spin on the visible. And the fact that the moisture it's leaving behind on the SW coat of S,Fla leads me to believe it's not as strong as the models seem to think. Again just my amateur view.

[joey]

Evening all,

I have been watching the satellite and model runs the last few days. I may be way way off base here but I am just not seeing this develuopment of 92 L sliding up the eastern seaboard. Earlier on the visible there was no obvious strong counter clock wise spin on the visible. And the fact that the moisture it's leaving behind on the SW coat of S,Fla leads me to believe it's not as strong as the models seem to think. Again just my amateur view.

also looks like all the convection keeps moving south

[AxaltaRacing24]

Evening all,

I have been watching the satellite and model runs the last few days. I may be way way off base here but I am just not seeing this develuopment of 92 L sliding up the eastern seaboard. Earlier on the visible there was no obvious strong counter clock wise spin on the visible. And the fact that the moisture it's leaving behind on the SW coat of S,Fla leads me to believe it's not as strong as the models seem to think. Again just my amateur view.

also looks like all the convection keeps moving south

If this develops then what a comeback. I honestly think it has a shot. Nearly every model at least shows it coming close.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

(I should make this statement earlier, but never mind)
Looks like 92L once again tries to make a run towards Irma... could this do it?

[joey]

hmmm just watch the tropical update from twc they say south east fl could see 2 to 4 more inches of rain from 92L could that be true interesting

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure located over northeast Florida is
producing a widespread area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move over the western
Atlantic later today, and has a brief opportunity to become a
tropical or subtropical depression during the next day or so,
before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of development, the
low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the
coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[forecasterjack]

Sunrise on 92L: still being sheared by Harvey. Thank goodness. Without that shear, it could be much worse for NC. Right now just a nuisance storm. https://weather.us/satellite/florida/sa ... .html#play

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

8 AM TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure located over northeast Florida is
producing a widespread area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is expected to move over the western
Atlantic later today, and has a brief opportunity to become a
tropical or subtropical depression during the next day or so,
before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of development, the
low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the
coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week.
Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida
peninsula during the next 24 hours. Please refer to products from
your local National Weather Service forecast office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Looks like NHC won't name this Irma. What... ok never mind

[forecasterjack]

92L in close proximity to a baroclinic front. I wouldn't be surprised if this just ends up being a baroclinic cyclone. Wonder what call NHC makes here. Certainly not a clear cut one https://weather.us/observations/800-w-3 ... 1400z.html

[forecasterjack]

GOES16 loop of 92L https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320- ... .html#play

[NDG]

14z HRRR not looking good for SW LA.

[jdjaguar]

Winds picking up a bit in jax

[OuterBanker]

Low starting to wrap up now off the GA coast. Winds here constantly in the 25kt range (mostly from gradient). Not sure if it will get a name or to status, looks like a hybrid. That's a shame because no one takes a storm without a name seriously. Plus, there will be no tracking, cone,etc. Could still cause some problem here because of all the rain we've had this summer. And beach erosion from prolonged stiff winds.

[forecasterjack]

https://weather.us/model-charts/standar ... 2000z.html gusty winds definitely incoming to NC. Winds are organized along fronts. This will be baroclinic IMO. If I were NHC, I don't think I'd give it a name. It has fronts.

[BRweather]

This storm looks to be developing quickly

[xironman]

Strong eddy just southeast of the convection off the coast of GA. May take over as the final center. My guess is eventual STS to TC

[northjaxpro]

This to.me has the appearance of a sub-tropical storm. Convection primarily on the east and southeast of the circulation center. The system is coming together quite well early this afternoon off the GA coast.