ATL: IRMA - Models

[cycloneye]

Model runs here.

Archive Model Runs
GFS 00Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/KPSadGg.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/EkOiL1v.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/oRHM3Am.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/bW90QhD.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/RPaNUB0.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/ud0N4n8.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/a9svJ1a.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/GvjUeNV.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/bEKDAdn.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/QHDFlZC.gif
GFS 00Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/k0tuP2c.gif
GFS 06Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/eFR7lRk.gif
GFS 12Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/7Hlx1r7.gif
GFS 18Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/tUTo3nv.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/IYZalar.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/J37okRY.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/2nVNDND.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 01: https://i.imgur.com/ERlttJ0.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/SFtTnEc.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/VqWLHF7.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/8E3DPDb.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/TNN3dFL.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/ROAu0cy.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/e5rOFkU.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/wVn3I0o.gif
GFS 18Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/AGyr1FQ.gif
GFS 00Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/qAzlj96.gif
GFS 06Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/db55WM1.gif
GFS 12Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/g0ydnCj.gif

ECMWF 00Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/0SSQ1DP.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 28: http://i.imgur.com/M119odN.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/E6UQ1G5.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 29: http://i.imgur.com/EnwSQqI.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/DnOUvWk.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 30: http://i.imgur.com/HLDgY7d.gif
ECMWF 00Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/k0tuP2c.gif
ECMWF 12Z Aug 31: http://i.imgur.com/kxH06Ud.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 01: http://i.imgur.com/UrXKWH6.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 01: https://i.imgur.com/svBjB4H.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/LDXBam1.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 02: https://i.imgur.com/wsWyjCT.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/vxDVJRb.gif
ECMWF 12Z Sep 03: https://i.imgur.com/Kmi2ZiZ.gif
ECMWF 00Z Sep 04: https://i.imgur.com/5PF6LU5.gif

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

93L Organised TS @138hrs

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

Another "hop scotch" run.

[gatorcane]

Euro ensembles are mostly just north or NE of the islands when the run ends with a few going through the islands:

[RL3AO]

Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

[blp]

Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/kYLQh8C.png[/]

According to 12z GFS the N to NNW movement and consolidation will happen in 12-24hrs so let's see if we get that lift in latitude. The shift is pretty significant it goes from 11.5 N currently to 15N over the Cape Verde islands in 24 hours. I believe that could have some implications down the road.

[chaser1]

Yeah. I'm guessing it will end up a few degrees south of the models in the short term.

Agreed, but that would be a bit concerning. Get ready everyone... halftime is over.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS and CMC show a very strong trough over the Eastern Seaboard next week. If they are right, tough to get anything close to the US. But it is all long-range so subject to large error.

[AutoPenalti]

Latest GFS and CMC show a very strong trough over the Eastern Seaboard next week. If they are right, tough to get anything close to the US. But it is all long-range so subject to large error.

Judging the strength and location of that trough is VERY difficult 200+ hrs out.

Since I think we are going to be under a positive NAO, I feel like as we get closer to that timeframe it's going to be a matter of how strong that ridge can tilt that trough enough to the point where it may become more of a concern for the SE US.

Some EPS ensembles have the SE Bahamas under the gun.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is the NAO forecast for the next 10 days or so. The top image shows it well. Let's see how positive/negative it gets as time goes on.


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[WeatherEmperor]

12z UKMET output:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 30.08.2017 15.4N 27.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 30.08.2017 15.9N 30.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.08.2017 16.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.08.2017 16.9N 34.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.09.2017 18.0N 36.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.09.2017 18.9N 38.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.09.2017 19.8N 41.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.09.2017 20.1N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.09.2017 20.2N 45.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.09.2017 20.0N 47.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


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[ColdMiser123]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2017 36 15.4N 27.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 30.08.2017 48 15.9N 30.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 31.08.2017 60 16.3N 32.1W 1002 38
1200UTC 31.08.2017 72 16.9N 34.2W 999 41
0000UTC 01.09.2017 84 18.0N 36.4W 996 41
1200UTC 01.09.2017 96 18.9N 38.7W 996 43
0000UTC 02.09.2017 108 19.8N 41.1W 996 44
1200UTC 02.09.2017 120 20.1N 43.4W 996 43
0000UTC 03.09.2017 132 20.2N 45.6W 995 47
1200UTC 03.09.2017 144 20.0N 47.3W 992 55

[hohnywx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.1N 26.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2017 36 15.4N 27.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 30.08.2017 48 15.9N 30.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 31.08.2017 60 16.3N 32.1W 1002 38
1200UTC 31.08.2017 72 16.9N 34.2W 999 41
0000UTC 01.09.2017 84 18.0N 36.4W 996 41
1200UTC 01.09.2017 96 18.9N 38.7W 996 43
0000UTC 02.09.2017 108 19.8N 41.1W 996 44
1200UTC 02.09.2017 120 20.1N 43.4W 996 43
0000UTC 03.09.2017 132 20.2N 45.6W 995 47
1200UTC 03.09.2017 144 20.0N 47.3W 992 55

Interesting that it is moving SW between 132 and 144 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF much weaker out through 4 days.

[blp]

12Z ECMWF much weaker out through 4 days.

Yes, and that should mean further west and less likely to gain latitude because of the first weakness in the middle of the atlantic. Interested to see the trough setup toward the end of the run.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 168 hours heading W to WSW between 144 and 168 hours, gaining strength:

[WeatherEmperor]

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[sma10]

Nice - looks like an old school model brawl. Euro and GFS have very different ways of handling 93L, and not even talking about long range yet. Even 3-7 days, Euro much faster and further west.

[gatorcane]

Moving into long-range but getting closer to Lesser Antilles this run: