ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BYG Jacob]

Do you think harvey will regain 50mph winds or more?

Depends on how long he stays in the GoM, and how much trouble he has dealing with the dry air

[stormreader]

Still don't think he's completely off coast, yet. Think llc is pretty much under that burst of convection along the coast. NHC has Harvey at 45 mph, which is stronger, even though they have not stated that he is off the coast yet. Don't think its confirmed yet.

[tolakram]

NOW IS NOT THE TIME, AND THIS IS NOT THE PLACE TO DISCUSS flood control, planning, or flood control projects. Doing so will get your account suspended quickly.

This topic is for Harvey, period! Please be respectful during this ongoing situation.

Remember, DON'T REPLY, REPORT. It makes the moderators job easier, thanks.

[RL3AO]

Storm Surge watch?? Could there really be a significant storm surge? amazing

Only need 3 feet of inundation to justify the watch. 35 to 40 knots onshore flow can do that easily.

[stephen23]

Wind really picking up out of the North here in Dallas. Strongest winds we have had in past few days

[WeatherCat]

3 km NAM for those who wish to view it.

Wish I hadn't looked!

[Christiana]

Still don't think he's completely off coast, yet. Think llc is pretty much under that burst of convection along the coast. NHC has Harvey at 45 mph, which is stronger, even though they have not stated that he is off the coast yet. Don't think its confirmed yet.

I'm no expert but I agree. Looks like the low level center is still on land and covered by convection. Is that the mid level spin I am seeing just right offshore? Can a met or experienced S2K'er confirm where the center is? Thanks.

[Frank P]

Still don't think he's completely off coast, yet. Think llc is pretty much under that burst of convection along the coast. NHC has Harvey at 45 mph, which is stronger, even though they have not stated that he is off the coast yet. Don't think its confirmed yet.

my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air

[stormreader]

Wind really picking up out of the North here in Dallas. Strongest winds we have had in past few days

Harvey is bigger now than he's ever been. Look at sat loops....just how large the circulation became today. I think this supports that he may be becoming sub-tropical. Gonna be pretty windy along the Tex and La coasts in the next 48 hours. I think strong Trop-Storm force is to be expected at a minimum.

[stormreader]

Still don't think he's completely off coast, yet. Think llc is pretty much under that burst of convection along the coast. NHC has Harvey at 45 mph, which is stronger, even though they have not stated that he is off the coast yet. Don't think its confirmed yet.

my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

[sphelps8681]

Wind really picking up out of the North here in Dallas. Strongest winds we have had in past few days

Harvey is bigger now than he's ever been. Look at sat loops....just how large the circulation became today. I think this supports that he may be becoming sub-tropical. Gonna be pretty windy along the Tex and La coasts in the next 48 hours. I think strong Trop-Storm force is to be expected at a minimum.

Not good.

[tolakram]

30 frame loop, speed it up.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-96&width=1000&height=800&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[sphelps8681]

I work for the school district in Lumberton, Tx and they have cancelled school the rest of the week.

[SunnyThoughts]

Online met on TWC...is downtown Houston...water rising from the reservoir releases... been watching the last couple hours. Signs that were well above water are now almost under water.

[Frank P]

Still don't think he's completely off coast, yet. Think llc is pretty much under that burst of convection along the coast. NHC has Harvey at 45 mph, which is stronger, even though they have not stated that he is off the coast yet. Don't think its confirmed yet.

my thoughts after further review, he is well off the coast, and that is not a mid level center but the LLC that is so pronounced in the GOM, and center totally devoid of any convection due to the dry air

Dry center...sub-tropical, you think??

Quite possibly, reminds me of a strong system that went south deep into the Yucatan on land from the BOC, then came back out and headed due north to the ngom, nothing but a big ole dry system that produce strong TS winds and a decent surge over here in Biloxi... can't remember its name though.. dang

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I mentioned this yesterday, it looks like a hybrid storm. The winds here in SL are for sure TS force. Temps fell in the morning when NE wind came in, It looks like a Low that has occluded too. Could it start weakening like mature low?

[wxman57]

Vortex shot southward off the TX coast in the last hour or so. Far as I can tell, that's Harvey's LLC. There appears to be a frontal boundary right on the TX coast. Almost like a warm front moving north between Houston & Galveston. Completely different rain pattern either side. Very odd.

[Aric Dunn]

The surface circ is offshore. Check surface obs if your confused sat and radar

[txrok]

Ok, I am not an expert and actually don't know a lot about weather, but just saw this post on another forum where someone is evidently speculating. My question for your experts - is something like this possible? There are a lot of little cities around the bay. I was born and raised there and have a lot of family and friends there. Is this something we should worry about?

Here's what they asked:

correct me if i'm wrong, but if it strengthens and takes the projected path when it starts moving north; would it not push the water in the gulf up past Galveston and into Houston? Would this not be worst case scenario? I don't see anyone talking about it, but if it strengthens enough over tonight and Tuesday before it turns north, this could happen?

[Blinhart]

Do you think harvey will regain 50mph winds or more?

Since he is already back up to 45 mph, who knows how fast he will get to. Will he be a small compact system or will he be a large wide spread storm, that is what will decide on how strong he will get. At least that is what I'm thinking.