ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

A Frances redux, perhaps?

It'll be a weekend late, as Frances was a Labor Day storm for the Florida peninsula.

Will definitely be watching this one...it's all we can do anyway. Just watch and hope for the best.

Yep, give us CV storm to follow across the pond... Smells kinda fishy to me...

[artist]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

That's not even funny!

[gatorcane]

wow this system is quite large (far right of animation). I don't like that name "Irma!"

[KWT]

Good circulation but I can see what the NHC means when they say it needs a little more convection. Interestingly that maybe related to the drier air to the north according to at least the GFS which is one of the prime reasons it holds it back.

[Alyono]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

That's not even funny!

Maue REALLY needs to stop hyping every single disturbance. Not after what we've been through!

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO: 90%/90%

A low pressure area is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This system continues to become better organized, and any
significant increase in the associated thunderstorm activity would
result in the formation of a tropical depression within the next day
or two. The low is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo
Verde Islands for a few more hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[floridasun78]

i have question so maybe td or ts will be close or east of leewards by Sunday like 1,000 mile from islands?

[jlauderdal]

That would be one massive storm. Looks like Floyd from 99.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/902611870602989570

That's not even funny!

Maue REALLY needs to stop hyping every single disturbance. Not after what we've been through!

He and bastardi are the hype machines

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 15.7°N 26.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[GeneratorPower]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

It has been since late April. The potential for all of this has been there for a while in the pre-season outlooks. But to actually see it verify is very uncomfortable indeed.

[CFLHurricane]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

Definitely one for the books. The second half of the season is incoming with a warming MDR and better climo. I guess the second year after El Niño hypothesis is true after all!

[AutoPenalti]

00z Best Track:

Location: 15.7°N 26.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

Looks like it's still increasing in latitude.

[Aric Dunn]

Just like always.. this would already be a TD/Storm if we had recon.

[txwatcher91]

Just like always.. this would already be a TD/Storm if we had recon.

With ASCAT showing a nearly closed circulation, the increased organization and maintenance of convection it really should be upgraded. It’s organizing quite well and could be a major problem for the US down the road.

[Kazmit]

Seeing how this is already close to becoming a TD, I think it'll be a huge ACE producer.

[sma10]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

The US has been exceedingly fortunate the last dozen years. Reversion to the mean is often uncomfortable.

[GeneratorPower]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

Definitely one for the books. The second half of the season is incoming with a warming MDR and better climo. I guess the second year after El Niño hypothesis is true after all!

Going into full La Niña mode it seems. Could get ugly now through 2018.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

The US has been exceedingly fortunate the last dozen years. Reversion to the mean is often uncomfortable.

No kidding, we've already had a Category 4 hurricane hit the USA and it's not even September.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This season is becoming uncomfortable.

Definitely one for the books. The second half of the season is incoming with a warming MDR and better climo. I guess the second year after El Niño hypothesis is true after all!

Going into full La Niña mode it seems. Could get ugly now through 2018.

Imagine if the PDO crashes along with a weak Nina next season