ATL: IRMA - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#401 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:42 pm

Just enough ridging to maintain that west to wnw heading.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#402 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:42 pm

943mb in bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#403 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:42 pm

Uh oh, that's not good. West towards the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#404 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:43 pm

The trough digging into the Great Lakes at day 9 maybe enough to turn it, but it doesn't seem like the stronger first one was enough.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#405 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:43 pm

Perhaps the trend out to sea is beginning after all. I know that it's uncommon to have a storm not recurve when it is developing this Far East.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#406 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:43 pm

Oh GFS...932mb :eek: :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#407 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:44 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Perhaps the trend out to sea is beginning after all. I know that it's uncommon to have a storm not recurve when it is developing this Far East.


It is uncommon, but this is a synoptic pattern where it can very far west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#408 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:44 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Perhaps the trend out to sea is beginning after all. I know that it's uncommon to have a storm not recurve when it is developing this Far East.

Not really. It has the storm a good deal farther SW this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#409 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:44 pm

This ones gonna be close boys and girls.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#410 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:45 pm

This is going to be a long season with all these threats....
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#411 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:45 pm

yep begins to recurve near Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#412 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:46 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#413 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:46 pm

Trap door opens
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#414 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:47 pm

Looks like the trough will grab it at the last minute to save Florida

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#415 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:48 pm

recurves it nearing the carolinas...Tommorow its out to sea lets hope.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#416 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:48 pm

Floyd part II
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#417 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:48 pm

Florida saved once again!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#418 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:48 pm

0z GFS - Archived Model GIFS available in the first post of the thread.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#419 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:49 pm

This run makes much more sense actually. I figured that run that was taking this into the Eastern Gulf wouldn't last long
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#420 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:50 pm

Close call
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