ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Not much movement for a couple of days...Would be some very bad days in Bermuda if that plays out.

[sma10]

Ahh memories ....

Was it really just 12Z yesterday that the GFS dissipated the system on its way into the Leewards?

[KWT]

The 12z Euro should be telling. I'm hoping that somehow the Euro gives into this solution and that Irma ends up going OTS, but I almost expect (with the way models have disagreed this year) that the Euro will double-down on its solution of a more south and west track... we'll see.

How many models are in the GFS camp? How many with the Euro/UKMet? That will be telling.

We are 200+ hours away from the storm being near the US. Nothing will be telling.

So true, I mean we are needing to watch not jsut TC in the WPAC but also a system that is barely even existing in the W.GOM along with various other features which are somewhat enhanced compared to normal such as the ridging and trough in this part of the N.Hemisphere.

No model is to be really trusted at this stage. For now, I'm personally concentrating on that WSW bend and to what extent it happens.

[Blinhart]

Wow

Surf's Up!

So if these intensification models are correct this is scary we will be seeing a Cat 6 storm (winds near 185-200 MPH)

[SouthFLTropics]

324 and on her way to the Flemish Cap

[hohnywx]

The 12z Euro should be telling. I'm hoping that somehow the Euro gives into this solution and that Irma ends up going OTS, but I almost expect (with the way models have disagreed this year) that the Euro will double-down on its solution of a more south and west track... we'll see.

How many models are in the GFS camp? How many with the Euro/UKMet? That will be telling.

We are 200+ hours away from the storm being near the US. Nothing will be telling.

So true, I mean we are needing to watch not jsut TC in the WPAC but also a system that is barely even existing in the W.GOM along with various other features which are somewhat enhanced compared to normal such as the ridging and trough in this part of the N.Hemisphere.

No model is to be really trusted at this stage. For now, I'm personally concentrating on that WSW bend and to what extent it happens.

Agree, KWT. For now, we know that when a storm makes a WSW movement in the MDR, its chances of impacting land greatly increase. For now, we should look for that movement and see what happens thereafter.

[KWT]

Ahh memories ....

Was it really just 12Z yesterday that the GFS dissipated the system on its way into the Leewards?

Superb point, the GFS is at the moment all over the place with this system, though I have to admit it IS a tricky forecast for any model.

I think intensity wise its looking pretty spot on, though if it does take that track, the intensity will not be as high, models nearly always overdo subtropical latitudes strength of storm.

[forecasterjack]

At this range, ensembles ensembles ensembles. This remains an EC threat until there is a strong and consistent trend on ensembles towards what the GFS OP showed today. That's my 2c anyway. One OP run this far out with this setup changes nothing IMO. Still a threat.

[sma10]

At this range, ensembles ensembles ensembles. This remains an EC threat until there is a strong and consistent trend on ensembles towards what the GFS OP showed today. That's my 2c anyway. One OP run this far out with this setup changes nothing IMO. Still a threat.

And not to state the obvious, but with how massive 240hr model errors are it's really just as likely for this monster cane to be tracking up 75W as it is 65W. Which is to say, not really very likely either.

I am just as guilty of tropical amnesia as anyone else - I always have to remind myself that the initial solution is never the final solution. 3 days out, models are good enough - sometimes 5 days if we're lucky. But after that, throw a dart.

[p1nheadlarry]

Ahh memories ....

Was it really just 12Z yesterday that the GFS dissipated the system on its way into the Leewards?

Superb point, the GFS is at the moment all over the place with this system, though I have to admit it IS a tricky forecast for any model.

I think intensity wise its looking pretty spot on, though if it does take that track, the intensity will not be as high, models nearly always overdo subtropical latitudes strength of storm.

When is it not tricky? Gaston about all I recall lately.

[Bocadude85]

I'd rather the GFS be showing a Florida landfall right now because we know the long range won't verify. These systems always seem to get farther west then the early models indicate...

[KWT]

Superb point, the GFS is at the moment all over the place with this system, though I have to admit it IS a tricky forecast for any model.

I think intensity wise its looking pretty spot on, though if it does take that track, the intensity will not be as high, models nearly always overdo subtropical latitudes strength of storm.

When is it not tricky? Gaston about all I recall lately.

Very true, however given the models have enough trouble when it has to take into account one recurving TC in the EPAC, now it has to deal with a somewhat unusual pattern in the Atlantic, a recurving WPAC storm and a potential W.Gulf storm/hurricane . All of the above makes this an above average complexity forecast once past day 5.

Upto day 5, models are in great agreement of the general track, some models are a little quicker, a little further south/north but generally they are all in the same ballpark, so we can have high confidence upto that point.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'd rather the GFS be showing a Florida landfall right now because we know the long range won't verify. These systems always seem to get farther west then the early models indicate...

I agree with this...Normally the best place to be at 10 days plus is right in the crosshairs. It might be time to take a trip to Bermuda.

[KWT]

HMON dives Irma so far WSW that it is actually south of its current location by 114hrs, quite the WSW dive.

Meanwhile HWRF does its own thing and ignores all other models and carries it on W/WNW through 72hrs. Upto 21N.

I know what model I will back given the weight of evidence so far...

[chaser1]

Does anyone have the most up to date (0Z from last night?) UK model run for Irma?

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON ramps it up pretty good and dives it to almost 16N at 49W

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is on an island by himself and says "what strong ridge, I'm going to keep going WNW"

[Hurricane Andrew]

HMON dives Irma so far WSW that it is actually south of its current location by 114hrs, quite the WSW dive.

Meanwhile HWRF does its own thing and ignores all other models and carries it on W/WNW through 72hrs. Upto 21N.

I know what model I will back given the weight of evidence so far...

I think HMON is out to lunch on intensity though...has a hurricane in 21 hours.

[hohnywx]

Does anyone have the most up to date (0Z from last night?) UK model run for Irma?

The 12z UKMET was posted above...came in stronger than 0Z and continued the WSW path.

[Blown Away]

So is the Euro the southern outlier?