
ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
tolakram wrote:
Ridge looks split there compared to yesterday's run.. hmmm...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Upper ridge is just a smidge weaker on the 12z ECM, but broadly the same out to 72hrs.
ECM is WAY underdoing intensity again though, may have an impact on the probable track down the line if it continues to be this much out. It'll probably be a hurricane within the next 12-24hrs. GFS on that front looking more realistic as are the high resolution hurricane models.
ECM also quicker thus far on this run.
ECM is WAY underdoing intensity again though, may have an impact on the probable track down the line if it continues to be this much out. It'll probably be a hurricane within the next 12-24hrs. GFS on that front looking more realistic as are the high resolution hurricane models.
ECM also quicker thus far on this run.
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- p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:tolakram wrote:
Ridge looks split there compared to yesterday's run.. hmmm...
That little blip of low pressure (shortwave energy? idk) has been a feature in past runs, maybe it's weakening the ridge..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Thru 120 hours: Euro and Ukmet in remarkable agreement. GFS begins to diverge with the other 2 between hours 96-120, being slower and further NE
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
In a similar position to the 12z but with stronger ridging and troughing @144hrs


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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I'm definitely not sold on a recurve East of Bermuda. West of Bermuda I can definitely see, but not East
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
blp wrote:Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.
Is that ridge building in? Where's the trough? What happened to the Tropical Low that was suppose to form?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Yep the ECM is developing into an intense hurricane and heading near due west at 144hrs. Needs to gain latitude soon because its about to whack into the Caribbean islands.
Flow is amplifying upstream as well with the upper trough starting to dig down.
Flow is amplifying upstream as well with the upper trough starting to dig down.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Trouble


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
blp wrote:Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.
I think the northern Leewards get clovered in this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Difference Im seeing is euro not developing the eastern moving gulf storm like GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Just for reference (this is not a prediction), if it makes it to that 144 hour position the spread is a little less favorable for a recurve before the US coast.


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- SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Do not like the trend of the 12Z UKMET and EC for the Antilles. The 12Z Euro verbatim would be very dangerous. Luckily that forecast is still 7-days out, which is subject to large errors. Hopefully it is too far south.
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