ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#661 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:12 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#662 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:13 pm

tolakram wrote:Image

Ridge looks split there compared to yesterday's run.. hmmm...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#663 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:15 pm

Upper ridge is just a smidge weaker on the 12z ECM, but broadly the same out to 72hrs.

ECM is WAY underdoing intensity again though, may have an impact on the probable track down the line if it continues to be this much out. It'll probably be a hurricane within the next 12-24hrs. GFS on that front looking more realistic as are the high resolution hurricane models.

ECM also quicker thus far on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#664 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:16 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image

Ridge looks split there compared to yesterday's run.. hmmm...


That little blip of low pressure (shortwave energy? idk) has been a feature in past runs, maybe it's weakening the ridge..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#665 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:19 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#666 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:23 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#667 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:27 pm

Thru 120 hours: Euro and Ukmet in remarkable agreement. GFS begins to diverge with the other 2 between hours 96-120, being slower and further NE
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#668 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:29 pm

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#669 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:30 pm

In a similar position to the 12z but with stronger ridging and troughing @144hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#670 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:31 pm

I'm definitely not sold on a recurve East of Bermuda. West of Bermuda I can definitely see, but not East
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#671 Postby blp » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:31 pm

Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#672 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:33 pm

blp wrote:Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.

Is that ridge building in? Where's the trough? What happened to the Tropical Low that was suppose to form?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#673 Postby sma10 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 pm

Uk only goes out 144hrs - in almost perfect coordination with Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#674 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 pm

Yep the ECM is developing into an intense hurricane and heading near due west at 144hrs. Needs to gain latitude soon because its about to whack into the Caribbean islands.

Flow is amplifying upstream as well with the upper trough starting to dig down.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#675 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 pm

Equal intensity to the 00z but farther SW @168 hrs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#676 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:35 pm

Trouble

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#677 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:36 pm

blp wrote:Pull up! Pull up! that thing is heading right for the islands. Much faster on this run.


I think the northern Leewards get clovered in this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#678 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:37 pm

Difference Im seeing is euro not developing the eastern moving gulf storm like GFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#679 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:37 pm

Just for reference (this is not a prediction), if it makes it to that 144 hour position the spread is a little less favorable for a recurve before the US coast.

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#680 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:37 pm

Do not like the trend of the 12Z UKMET and EC for the Antilles. The 12Z Euro verbatim would be very dangerous. Luckily that forecast is still 7-days out, which is subject to large errors. Hopefully it is too far south.
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