ATL: IRMA - Models

[meriland29]

[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017083100/gfs_mslp_wind_atl_31.png][/img]

925

[SouthFLTropics]

Trough might lift out and leave Irma behind this time. Ridge looks much stronger.

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's more like it. Finally turns it NNW/NW

[meriland29]

ridge is lower this run and stronger than last ...here is the difference..

18z

00z

[meriland29]

down to 910 mb 198hr holy smokes..

[Hurricaneman]

Much more ridging this run and it's still north?

Looks like it tries to plow through the ridge, that means this is the typical bias of the GFS so we'll see but shouldn't it be south of where the GFS has it here

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Blinhart]

Much more ridging this run and it's still north?

Looks like it tries to plow through the ridge, that means this is the typical bias of the GFS so we'll see but shouldn't it be south of where the GFS has it here

If all the ridging is correct, yes this will most likely be further SW than it currently shows.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Much more ridging this run and it's still north?

Looks like it tries to plow through the ridge, that means this is the typical bias of the GFS so we'll see but shouldn't it be south of where the GFS has it here

The GFS always does this. However, the trend of more ridging is disturbing.

[meriland29]

tis sticking to its strict NW run so far..

[AxaltaRacing24]

10Mb stronger than the 18z

[SouthFLTropics]

This is a timing and speed issue...pure and simple. The trough is slower progressing and Irma is faster. End result is the same just slightly further west. I expect more west shifts to continue until it has the speed of the trough and Irma correctly calculated.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

On this GFS run I don't see much of an Identifiable low down in the Bay OF Campeche as compared to the earlier run. The High seems to be established all the way into Florida, but I am not the best and reading how strong it is near FLA.

[meriland29]

897mb was the lowest 18z had in the whole run, we will see how far down this takes us...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Dayum 16mb stronger this run

[ConvergenceZone]

I definitely don't buy how the GFS is taking this so far North with such a strong ridge, The earlier EURO run makes much more sense. Now if the EURO starts to line up with the GFS, then I may believe it a bit more

[meriland29]

Hour 210, NNW movement.

[ConvergenceZone]

What is that a Cat 6? lol

[Bocadude85]

This is a timing and speed issue...pure and simple. The trough is slower progressing and Irma is faster. End result is the same just slightly further west. I expect more west shifts to continue until it has the speed of the trough and Irma correctly calculated.

The cutoff low is also a issue, the cutoff low creates enough of a weakness on the GFS to allow Irma to turn NW and miss the islands, the EURO moves the cutoff low out quicker and thus allows Irma to get farther west.

[Hurricaneman]

I believe that this run of the GFS after hr 168 is bogus because of plowing through the ridge