
ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I am up for the EURO...why?!
Oh yeah...I remember now.
Oh yeah...I remember now.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hurricane Andrew wrote:I am up for the EURO...why?!
Oh yeah...I remember now.
Cause we a intrigued and confused..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hurricane Andrew wrote:I am up for the EURO...why?!
Oh yeah...I remember now.
Currently eating pistachios because I want to see all physics defied an- oh wait
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
meriland29 wrote:Euro initialized..
And initialized her 9 mb too high. Most likely she mostly has a lower pressure now, she was at 999 3 hours ago, I wouldn't be surprised if by the time the next advisory comes out she is a hurricane with a pressure around 995.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
0z GFS fantasy range solution makes no sense.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
meriland29 wrote:
Euro initialized Irma as a 1008 low. Irma is currently a 999mb TS.
What. the. heck.
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Isn't the pressure shown on these model runs not exactly the right pressure? I keep hearing mentions of the "high resolution" EURO which shows the actual pressure on initialization.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That little cut-off low is gone.


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- meriland29
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
well I can give you the 500mb but literally anyway you slice it, the mb are still on the low end..


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
72 hrs.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That little cutoff as you put it is the reason for the weakness and the lift GFS shows.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
96 hours is about a degree further westward and about 18 mb stronger.
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A major hurricane will be steered by more than the 500 mb winds. It'll be steered by the mean flow through most of the atmosphere. Once a hurricane is that strong, it gets tough to completely subtract out the vortex to get the background flow. We can try with Levi's area sounding. It shows the hurricane would move to the WNW or NW...exactly like the model showed. The GFS didn't break physics.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
wxmann_91 wrote:Ignoring the exact track of the hurricane for a moment, the Euro did trend stronger with the ULL in front of future Irma, closer to the GFS. Closed height contours at H5 at hr 96 vs open in last night's run.
It also had higher heights south and southeast of the ULL for what that might contribute to steering.
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