ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

I think we are close to reaching a critical tipping point for the GFS here at hour 150.

[northjaxpro]

That ridge is just too strong. I can't see any northward jog at all for Irma to make at hour 138-144.

[AxaltaRacing24]

A bit of caving here.

[pcolaman]

That ridge is just too strong. I can't see any northward jog at all for Irma to make at hour 138-144.

Not buying that either, too strong of a ridge.

[SouthFLTropics]

The ridge is strong and that trough is going to cut off. This should end up much different than the 18z.

[sma10]

162hr -- uh,oh ... do i see that dreaded bending to the left?

[NDG]

GFS is trending similar to the Euro, stronger ridging to its north, trough over the MS river valley having a tough progressing towards the east.

[RL3AO]

A not so subtle westward shift in the trough and ridge.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Still up dispatching...and watching this in terror. Also interesting that there is no Jose on this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Heading WNW @168hrs

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I can't say I am that surprised, I was however hoping to see some weakness in the hopes of an escape route, but also knowing better,

[joey]

A not so subtle westward shift in the trough and ridge.

could high pressure block a trof ?

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 168...here comes the trough being cutoff.

[SunnyThoughts]

Yep, looks like cut off for sure.

[northjaxpro]

If anything, you can see how the ridge axis is building westward very clearly late in the run. The axis is extending into the Eastern GOM. Not good at all. GFS is definitely caving on to the EURO solution.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trend

[Siker]

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2017 0 17.4N 35.2W 959 71
1200UTC 01.09.2017 12 18.0N 37.5W 961 71
0000UTC 02.09.2017 24 18.6N 39.7W 963 75
1200UTC 02.09.2017 36 18.8N 42.4W 963 72
0000UTC 03.09.2017 48 18.6N 45.2W 965 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 60 18.0N 47.8W 962 76
0000UTC 04.09.2017 72 17.2N 49.7W 941 84
1200UTC 04.09.2017 84 16.8N 51.6W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2017 96 16.9N 53.6W 948 77
1200UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.4N 55.5W 947 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 120 18.6N 57.6W 937 89
1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
0000UTC 07.09.2017 144 21.7N 62.3W 936 87

[txwatcher91]

We are starting to get much better agreement from the models now inside 7 days. GFS is much further south, trending towards the Euro as expected.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Maybe not from a scientific perspective, but that is what I was attempting to say a page or so back.

[SouthFLTropics]

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2017 0 17.4N 35.2W 959 71
1200UTC 01.09.2017 12 18.0N 37.5W 961 71
0000UTC 02.09.2017 24 18.6N 39.7W 963 75
1200UTC 02.09.2017 36 18.8N 42.4W 963 72
0000UTC 03.09.2017 48 18.6N 45.2W 965 73
1200UTC 03.09.2017 60 18.0N 47.8W 962 76
0000UTC 04.09.2017 72 17.2N 49.7W 941 84
1200UTC 04.09.2017 84 16.8N 51.6W 943 80
0000UTC 05.09.2017 96 16.9N 53.6W 948 77
1200UTC 05.09.2017 108 17.4N 55.5W 947 80
0000UTC 06.09.2017 120 18.6N 57.6W 937 89
1200UTC 06.09.2017 132 20.0N 60.0W 940 82
0000UTC 07.09.2017 144 21.7N 62.3W 936 87

Those are WAY LOW numbers for the UKMET!!!