ATL: IRMA - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

Days of unfathomable rain, wind, surge, and waves for the Chesapeake area, OBX, NJ coast and Long Island

Well, if this track does happen, I wouldn't say "days of rain". This is moving pretty fast. While it could be strong, we aren't talking about another Harvey when it comes to rainfall. We may never see another Harvey in our lifetime. Thank God

[eastcoastFL]

Landfall

Homestead...25 years later!!!

200+ hours out. Hopefully it's wrong. I'm anxiously waiting on the next Euro run.

[Bocadude85]

0z HMON is faster and farther west then the 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090100&fh=87&xpos=0&ypos=0

[stormlover2013]

Guys they will keep flopping, no reason to anxiously wait..5-7 maybe but hard to trust a model even that far out

[Steve]

Interesting final landfall in Maryland. Everyone up there knows they get affected by storms passing through, but it's been a few years since I've seen anyone at TWC out in Ocean City monitoring. This GFS run is particularly bad for the state of Pennsylvania.

[AdamFirst]

Gotta recognize a trend when you see one, in terms of the GFS.

Let's see what "KING EURO" has in store for us...

[eastcoastFL]

Guys they will keep flopping, no reason to anxiously wait..5-7 maybe but hard to trust a model even that far out

More curious than anxious. Wrong choice of words. Late and tired. I'm off to bed.

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z HWRF is also coming in faster and southwest of the 18z

[AxaltaRacing24]

Gotta recognize a trend when you see one, in terms of the GFS.

Let's see what "KING EURO" has in store for us...

This is my final night staying up for it. Then I have to adjust my sleep schedule for school.

[Steve]

Also that landfall in Maryland is within 240 hours so basically next weekend.

Respectable run by the CMC. This is the 850mb laid over the 500mb with 200mb winds.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

^^^ Plays into my idea that after the islands, the Bahamas are the next big threat.

[Steve]

HWRF is south of 15N at 75 hours (Sunday 11pm Eastern).

[sma10]

I hope y'all realize how many times we've been thru model watching of storms that are 7+ days out, right? Please remember this post when Irma slams into Belize next weekend.

[Steve]

I hope y'all realize how many times we've been thru model watching of storms that are 7+ days out, right? Please remember this post when Irma slams into Belize next weekend.

It's the only game in town at the moment and looks to be a big deal. Apparently there is flash flooding in Tennessee if you want real time action.

[sma10]

I hope y'all realize how many times we've been thru model watching of storms that are 7+ days out, right? Please remember this post when Irma slams into Belize next weekend.

It's the only game in town at the moment and looks to be a big deal. Apparently there is flash flooding in Tennessee if you want real time action.

No, no, no Steve all in good fun. I'm as guilty as anyone
Just seems we can sometimes slip into a temporary case of amnesia and fall for these tracks every single time. Lol

[sma10]

HWRF is south of 15N at 75 hours (Sunday 11pm Eastern).

And still south of 15N at 87 hours. Will be very difficult not to go into caribbean.

[HurricaneEric]

Models are slowly trending south and west with this system, even in the medium range.

HWRF has Irma still below 15N at hour 87, after having just passed 51W.

Again, trends are what we need to look at, not individual runs. So far, the trend isn't good.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Thetre E
TVSN models are picking the small upper-level trof, reason for clearing the islands i believe atm.

[sma10]

Models are slowly trending south and west with this system, even in the medium range.

HWRF has Irma still below 15N at hour 87, after having just passed 51W.

Again, trends are what we need to look at, not individual runs. So far, the trend isn't good.

The HWRF is actually the more realistic version of the GFS. The sw dip finishes at around 78hr, and the track smoothes from wsw to west for about the next 18 hrs, as opposed to the GFS trampolining Irma wnw almost immediately

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Maybe not a trans at this point, but most of the models do show a very distinct track to the WSW TO SW for a bit before leveling out WNW,

[Miami Storm Tracker]

typo trend