ATL: IRMA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Definitely further SW and faster...The islands will get hit with this HWRF run

[RL3AO]

Last one on this topic. You can see how chaotic everything becomes after about 6 days over North America. A lot can and will change when it comes to any potential US threat in 10 days or so.

[SouthFLTropics]

EDIT: Corrected to show 12z...Definitely SW of the 06z

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised to read the MET(fox) saying this will probably be out to sea. While I also believe a recurve is highly probable, I also know that a a storm recurving can still take this into the NorthEast corner of the US.

[JPmia]

And on a lighter note, here's the GFS ensembles and the individual 500 mb height forecasts at day 9. Looks pretty cut and dry to me.

Um, I have no idea what to do with this map LOL

[AxaltaRacing24]

And on a lighter note, here's the GFS ensembles and the individual 500 mb height forecasts at day 9. Looks pretty cut and dry to me.

Um, I have no idea what to do with this map LOL

I honestly thought it was a joke at first.

[Siker]

Looks like it may miss to the north if it kept running...barely

That's the 6z, 12z hits furthest northeast island (don't know my Caribbean geography).

[AubreyStorm]

[quote="SouthFLTropics"]Definitely further SW and faster...The islands will get hit with this HWRF run

More close to PR?

[KWT]

HWRF has shifted real westwards compared to yesterday and is on the southern end of the suite, it actually does hit the Leeward Islands as a powerful hurricane around 945mbs.

GFS ensembles shifting westwards, apart from the ECM most models have shifted westwards, and the ECM was probably too far west to start with. Starting to sniff a consensus at least out to 168hrs, though still huge spread after that point.

Generally three camps, one is a NE/OTS, another goes towards Carolinas and maybe up the coast, the final group keep headng towards Florida.

So ironic that the moment the ECM shifts northwards, the rest of the suite decide to shift back westwards! Wonder what the 12z ECM will do?!

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm surprised to read the MET(fox) saying this will probably be out to sea. While I also believe a recurve is highly probable, I also know that a a storm recurving can still take this into the NorthEast corner of the US. But we will see if he's right...

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF ends this way...Raking the NE Islands

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like it may miss to the north if it kept running...barely

That's the 6z, 12z hits furthest northeast island (don't know my Caribbean geography).

Thanks for the catch...I corrected it.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

North of the previous 12z run

[tolakram]

[curtadams]

Last one on this topic. You can see how chaotic everything becomes after about 6 days over North America. A lot can and will change when it comes to any potential US threat in 10 days or so.

In the possibly black humor department, the area with Irma in the later frames has a very cheery-looking smiley face in a couple of frames. (An artifact of the dotdotdash separation lines)

[Aric Dunn]

Euro is slower than the 00z run..

[AutoPenalti]

Trough a tad stronger and ridge a tad weaker from Euro.

[Ken711]

Euro is slower than the 00z run..

I wonder if that's a good thing in terms of the ridge backing off as it makes its way north.

[tolakram]