ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

oh yeah, missed the trough heading w to wnw..

[SFLcane]

Oh my!

[SouthFLTropics]

192 Hours...

Close call coming???

[Aric Dunn]

this run has a very weak cut off low over the MS valley .. didnt show up until this frame.

[tolakram]

South of 0z run, so again 12z and 0z back and forth, as we've seen before this year.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Oh my!

That was a bad ..bad...frame change...168-192

[GeneratorPower]

Dat ridge, tho. Man. We're getting far out in time at 192 hours.

[Steve]

this run has a very weak cut off low over the MS valley .. didnt show up until this frame.

Yesterday's 12z did too and had an angled ridge pushing back against the pattern from the NE off the mid-Atlantic Coast. This looks like a S FL or FL Straights continuation through 192 which was what I thought yesterday. Clear Bahamas threat which is also what I have been thinking. We'll see what happens at 216 and 240!

Also growing massive in size in the Bahamas.

[KWT]

Only hope for Florida on the 12z ECM is IF a cutoff low forms from that weak troughing and lifts it northwards in time, I THINK thats what happened on the 12z CMC and it was just enough to prevent a Florida landfall. That is really playing Russian roulette though and its loaded against you once you get to the point ECM is at around 168hrs.

Looks fair to say the models have by in large once again shifted back WEST on the 12z suite.

GFS ensembles showing a much higher threat to both the east coast and Florida than previous suites as well.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hah..Well that's interesting. And once again much different run to run. ULL over the midwest, and Jose deepening behind Irma. Way different ridge placement and height--almost to Greenland.

[SFLcane]

No way it misses Florida...

[Steve]

Wait what just happened?!?

The next sequence of the model ran. 2 days left and it's bearing down on SF on a west heading.

[northjaxpro]

Hour 192, trough has lifted out and passed northeast. I see nothing but ridging at this juncture. Irma looks blocked just off the Southeast U.S. coast.

[Blinhart]

Dat ridge, tho. Man. We're getting far out in time at 192 hours.

8 days isn't really that far out, I know the spread gets bigger after 5 days, but this is just saying that everyone needs to keep a very close eye on this, because once it hits 60W, we will be within the 5 day window or so of ConUS landfall possibly.

[weathaguyry]

Cutoff low is weak, but it could steer something N instead of NE, potentially like a Donna track

[AutoPenalti]

Wait what just happened?!?

The next sequence of the model ran. 2 days left and it's bearing down on SF on a west heading.

What run was I seeing that had this east of Florida?? I just got completely dumbfounded!

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its going to come into central florida or scrape it then the carolinas

[Steve]

End of the world run for most of the Bahamas except the extreme southern islands. Then doomsday appears to be headed to Miami and all of South Florida unless this stops on a dime.

NOPE. 216 and it's along the coast nudging slightly WNW curl - maybe East Central FL up to the GA Coastline? That's a tough hit to do. Note the giant high north of the system at 216. It's not going to curve up into it.