ATL: IRMA - Models

[GCANE]

[MGC]

Once recon samples Irma and the Gulfstream does a synoptic mission to sample the ridge to its north, I would not panic. Run to run margin of error is huge right now. We will have a much better idea where Irma might be headed once it approaches the islands......MGC

[Steve H.]

Yes, these are models showing 8-10 days out. These will change over the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday they should be getting closer to a more definitive solution.....perhaps.

[RL3AO]

I mentioned it a few days ago but it got lost a bit. Research has shown that model skill is below average for a 5 to 7 day forecast near North America after a typhoon recurves in the Pacific.

[WeatherEmperor]

It's Friday night of a long weekend...Who's staying up for tonight's Euro??? I'm in!!!

I will be awake for the Euro. Lets see what happens. Do you think it will shift west or east??


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[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS
Enthalpy Flux forecast shows a massive monster.
Huge ACE out of this one.

[otowntiger]

00Z guidance:

Looks like the NHC is well south of the mean- north shifts in the official track coming?

[otowntiger]

It's Friday night of a long weekend...Who's staying up for tonight's Euro??? I'm in!!!

I will be awake for the Euro. Lets see what happens. Do you think it will shift west or east??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

i don't expect much of a change- if anything a more solidifying slight north shift.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

For anyone interested Philippe Papin‏ @pppapin has nice piece on the current influence's
on IRMA. He explains the upper trof pvs.

[jlauderdal]

They have been south since it was named, expect more of that especially with the recent ensembles

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

On the contrary, the trough or amount of cutoffing could be overdone as well.

Keep in mind we've had roughly two weeks of clear, cool weather from the last ridge up here, so the next one could be a monster too.

We haven't had a "monster ridge" in Nova Scotia all Summer. I'm not banking on it.

We sure have in New Brunswick. It's been clear here for two weeks until the last cold front passed through just today.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

00Z guidance:

Looks like the NHC is well south of the mean- north shifts in the official track coming?

Hmmm, that would be Hugo the second or close to it.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Can you post image?

Had to do a double take when I first ran through this on WSI.

Yeah, I saw this. Looks like Charley again.

I don't want to go through that again! But preps are just about done, so...now we wait.

A very frightening possibility indeed.

Thank goodness we are still so far removed from that timeframe.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/KUAdirect/status/903793378126684161

[Blinhart]

The one thing that I am concerned about is that no matter how powerful the windshield wiping is, we still have our 3 best models showing landfalls, which is the last thing this country needs.

Not going out to sea. Personally, I'm ruling out the Outer Banks and points north. So don't think it will even be close to going out to sea. Still possible it approaches SE coast and makes a strong NW jog toward the Cape Fear, NC area, but that's about as far north as I think it would go. So broad area for me is Cape Fear, NC down to the coast of Cuba. See how that plays out for a couple of days. If that looks to verify, then further refine it then.

I totally agree with this idea.

[Ken711]

That E Coast majic door always a very high probability no matter what the models say... Floridians have 9 days for Irma to find that door...

Better hope there's a magic door for the Carolinas as well.

[GCANE]

[chaser1]

I mentioned it a few days ago but it got lost a bit. Research has shown that model skill is below average for a 5 to 7 day forecast near North America after a typhoon recurves in the Pacific.

Now that a rather interesting upstream reverberation. Specific to what longitude Pacific re-curves? I'd be curious what the teleconnection time frame might be for resultant impacts to finally ripple on over in our pond??

[hohnywx]

00Z guidance:

Looks like the NHC is well south of the mean- north shifts in the official track coming?

No. As mentioned in previous NHC discussions, the more southern track is on purpose due to the depth of the cyclone.

[Blinhart]

00Z guidance:

Looks like the NHC is well south of the mean- north shifts in the official track coming?

No. As mentioned in previous NHC discussions, the more southern track is on purpose due to the depth of the cyclone.

So I see one into Louisiana, one into Mobile, one into Pensacola and a few into the Big Bend.