ATL: IRMA - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2641 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:54 pm

RL3AO wrote:If you want to talk about a trend, it's worth mentioning it's 150 miles WNW of the run 24s prior on Tuesday morning.

Definitely...Speed is one of the biggest factors here I think.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2642 Postby pcolaman » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:55 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Still a tick SW of the euro
Image


Doesn't it look like the ridge is lower this run ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2643 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:56 pm

Damn that's scary for the islands. SW this run
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2644 Postby AubreyStorm » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:58 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Damn that's scary for the islands. SW this run
Image


Why? :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2645 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:59 pm

FYI...CMC has started.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2646 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:59 pm

RL3AO wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z. :think:


Really?

Image

that show strong high
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2647 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:00 pm

The fact that it's faster allows it to get closer to the islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2648 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:00 pm

Other than faster forward speed not much different that I can see so far in this run. Ridge maybe a hair stronger, ULL and trough are very similar.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2649 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:02 pm

Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.

No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.

In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...

MW
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2650 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:02 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2651 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:02 pm

The next 48 hours of the run will tell the tale of the trough. Does it lift out quick, sweep out, or cut off.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2652 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:03 pm

MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.

No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.

In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...

MW


Very good advice and insight. Good to see you on here Mike! :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2653 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:03 pm

MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.

No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.

In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...

MW


A rare Mike Watkins sighting! Please continue to give your input on the models as the days go on


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2654 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:04 pm

Is this the Euro or GFS?
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2655 Postby drezee » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:04 pm

12z Euro @120 and 0z GFS @108 are almost mirror images
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2656 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 pm

Big trough pumping up the ridge. This looks very much like the Euro from 12z

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2657 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:The ULL to the NW looks a little more pronounced...Could play a factor.

Image


You talking about that thing in New England, that is Harvey's remnants.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2658 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 pm

drezee wrote:12z Euro @120 and 0z GFS @108 are almost mirror images


Yes. GFS has come down to meet the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2659 Postby pcolaman » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:06 pm

MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.

No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.

In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...

MW



Hey Mike , has been many moons !! Back in the Ivan Era !
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2660 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:08 pm

Still looks like the trough will cut off this run.

Image
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