RL3AO wrote:If you want to talk about a trend, it's worth mentioning it's 150 miles WNW of the run 24s prior on Tuesday morning.
Definitely...Speed is one of the biggest factors here I think.
ATL: IRMA - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Definitely...Speed is one of the biggest factors here I think.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Still a tick SW of the euro
Doesn't it look like the ridge is lower this run ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Damn that's scary for the islands. SW this run
Why?
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
FYI...CMC has started.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
RL3AO wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Still riding high...Not seeing much evidence of a dive yet. Still well North of 18z.
Really?
that show strong high
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Other than faster forward speed not much different that I can see so far in this run. Ridge maybe a hair stronger, ULL and trough are very similar.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.
No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.
In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...
MW
No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.
In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
The next 48 hours of the run will tell the tale of the trough. Does it lift out quick, sweep out, or cut off.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.
No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.
In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...
MW
Very good advice and insight. Good to see you on here Mike!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.
No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.
In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...
MW
A rare Mike Watkins sighting! Please continue to give your input on the models as the days go on
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Big trough pumping up the ridge. This looks very much like the Euro from 12z
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:The ULL to the NW looks a little more pronounced...Could play a factor.
You talking about that thing in New England, that is Harvey's remnants.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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stormreader
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
drezee wrote:12z Euro @120 and 0z GFS @108 are almost mirror images
Yes. GFS has come down to meet the Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
MWatkins wrote:Pattern in the GFS appears to be more zonal through day 3. Of course it's much too early to speculate on the eventual impact to the islands and the US, but at a high level, the GFS + Euro pattern remind me a lot of Ike in 2008.
No two systems are the same. Not suggesting at all that Irma will turn out like Ike. It's the short-term shift in the guidance that seems familiar.
In any event - the best action item for anyone watching Irma in the Atlantic basin is to be sure they have a plan in case it comes their way next week. We are entering the very peak of the season...
MW
Hey Mike , has been many moons !! Back in the Ivan Era !
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