ATL: IRMA - Models

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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2941 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

120 hours

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2942 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

Quite a bit weaker this run...definitely interesting.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2943 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

Still should cut off when I look at the pv maps. Maybe a bit further east. Don't see any reasons this run will be much different.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2944 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:06 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2945 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:07 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Quite a bit weaker this run...definitely interesting.


The storm is weaker? I'm seeing differences of 5mb at most in either direction through 132 hours besides the first two days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2946 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:07 am

126 hours

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2947 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:08 am

weathaguyry wrote:
Blown Away wrote:GFS/Euro consistent on blocking Irma from turning NE into Atlantic... I think that's what you take away from these model runs, seems that HP wants to be strong and block Irma, wouldn't surprise me if a southerly route into EGOM or a NE impact... I will always side with magic trap door opening at some point for last minute escape...


It makes we wonder if we could end up getting a Donna track out of this.


Posted a Donna track a couple of days ago as a possible analog to this storm. Donna formed very early (at Cabo Verde Islands) like this one. Also at about the exact same date (Aug 29). Donna was a major well out to sea. Peaked at Cat 4. Has similarities with this storm. I'm still keeping S Fl and the Straits in what I term my "window".....Cape Fear North Carolina---To North Coast of Cuba. Keeping that entire window open for the time being.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2948 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:09 am

132

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2949 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:11 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2950 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:13 am

144

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2951 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:14 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2952 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:14 am

OTS this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2953 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:15 am

Wouldn't be surprised if this came in further south (NC/Virginia) this run based on earlier tilting of the trough / slower storm.

Edit: Trough seems to be weaker though, not as negatively tilted as previous runs.
Last edited by Siker on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2954 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:15 am

150

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2955 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

weathaguyry wrote:132

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Misses SE FL this run?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2956 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

TheStormExpert wrote:OTS this run?

Unlikely with a storm this far south this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2957 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

Does the ridging appear stronger and deeper or about the same as the last run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2958 Postby M3gaMatch » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

trough looks flatter / weakening faster @ 150hrs than it did previous GFS runs.
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2959 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

About a 3 degree shift S through 150 this GFS go around
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2960 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:17 am

I'd be VERY surprised if the Euro didn't change its tune this afternoon and trend East towards the GFS.
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