Evolution of the Eastern US Trough is critical in this run whether it gets knocked back west or curves out. Look at it on the 850mb vort over 500mb heights with the 200mb winds. This is the W Atlantic view:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
And here's the North Atlantic View
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=186
ATL: IRMA - Models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
198, maybe another MD/DE hit?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
trough replaced by new ridge building through Canada...landfall looks inevitable this run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Landfall at the Outer Banks? NC/VA border is what I was thinking the trend has been further west.
Last edited by Ken711 on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Not looking this trend in the GFS here in Wilmington, NC. Curious to see GEFS.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Trough evolution completely different from past few runs beyond 144 hours but still a devastating hit for the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
204, about to Landfall in MD
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
This is literally a horror show for me...lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Siker wrote:Trough evolution completely different from past few runs beyond 144 hours but still a devastating hit for the Mid-Atlantic / Northeast.
Yeah, it lifts out and a piece gets left back in Ohio. I think this will come NNW and not go NNE.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=186
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
A landfalling cane of that strength VA tidewater would be an unmitigated disaster. The entire are is very low lying.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
and that is an absolutely catastrophic run for the east coast.. geesh..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
xironman wrote:A landfalling cane of that strength VA tidewater would be an unmitigated disaster. The entire are is very low lying.
Massive flooding along the lines of Harvey/Houston would be possible.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
CMC and GFS within a couple hundred miles. GFS headed toward Hampton/Norfolk/VA Beach, Baltimore, DC, Philadelphia and some points north or NW as the run continues. Interesting to see if it stays with a W component all the way to Hudson Bay as it did last night.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Seems like this GFS run was somewhat slower than the 06z run and landfall is farther south down the coast. Maybe the GFS is more in line with the Euro run now. Still aways out and things can change but WOW!
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