ATL: IRMA - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- meriland29
- Category 2
- Posts: 770
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
It is interesting cause, the 00z almost seems like total 'refresh' of the models. I have found that the 00z's tend to start, and end trends, it is scary that is continuing this trend in tremendous way, the westward shifts are very worrisome.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:The plan was not to stay up for the ERUO tonight this morning or what ever time it is, but I am still here so lets see what it does.
I am in the exact same predicament. It's impossible to go to bed when the 00z int is right in your face.
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
HWRF ends up at 126 hours located at 21.8N 71.8W at 933mb.
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
HWRF ends up at 126 hours located at 21.8N 71.8W at 933mb.
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:MWatkins wrote:The tend early in the new model cycle is not encouraging. GFS, CMC and UKMET are all SW of their 5-7 day positions vs. previous runs.
Small differences in storm size and the steering pattern will continue to evolve as we get into next week. Almost pointless to look at the deterministic results of where/when/if it hits in the long range, but if these shifts continue, the threat to some place in the SE US goes up.
Our approach is follow the plan, make a bunch of ice, make sure the generator works, then watch and wait.
Mike
miss your posts MIKE !!!
Been reading yours for years, Aric! It seems hard to convey that agreement is not = to confidence.
2 likes
Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
- meriland29
- Category 2
- Posts: 770
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Euro is read to roll. Think this one will really highlight what the trough and ridge is expected to do.


1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
0 likes
- TheDreamTraveler
- Category 2
- Posts: 642
- Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: PA
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I'm really interested to see if the Euro tries to go with an OTS solution again like its 12z run or if it goes back to making a landfall on the coast...or worse, striking the islands along the way and then hitting somewhere on the east coast :<
1 likes
- wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Steve wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
Probably just the spread increasing amongst the ensemble members (so that the averaged isobars become more diffuse).
3 likes
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Steve wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 162 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
Last edited by Steve on Sun Sep 03, 2017 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Steve wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Steve wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090300&fh=-66&xpos=0&ypos=0
GEFS 00z comes in a hair south of GFS Operational. SC/NC.
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Steve wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol
Haha. It does. Landfall in 7.25 days from the run so now a little under 7 days until impact per NAVGEM.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
0 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Add me to the staying up for the Euro when I need to catch up on sleep but won't crew
Everything has been west tonight and that's concerning. What a change from 2 weeks ago right? It's surreal.

3 likes
- Bocadude85
- Category 5
- Posts: 2990
- Age: 38
- Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2005 2:20 pm
- Location: Honolulu,Hi
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Steve wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.
That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200
Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol
It's good to be in the crosshairs this far out
1 likes
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 5200
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
My prediction is that the Euro will still be out to sea, but a bit further west and closer to the coast.
0 likes
- meriland29
- Category 2
- Posts: 770
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1766
- Age: 25
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
- Location: Jupiter, FL
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests