ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4001 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:19 am

USTropics wrote:Below is a chart for average positional error by nautical mile ONLY for Irma (includes all model runs since Irma initialization). ECMWF data only goes out to 72 hours:

Image

Image

data source - http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=11&display=model_error&error_type=average&latestrun=1&type=table


This is good stuff. What is concerning is how accurate the UKMET and TVCN projections have been. Only 100 miles off at 120 houra and they are both taking it further West. Another 100 mile shift west error from them at 120 hours puts it right on Florida's door step. Kudos as well to GFS 120 accuracy. Taking into account all 3. It's becoming clear there will be a hit.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:25 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4002 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:20 am

Look at Ukmet, better than GFS at 120...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4003 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:22 am

Full animated 06Z GFS run :darrow:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4004 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:27 am

Dang, I wish the UKMET went out further. I'm hugging the UKMET for this storm. The TVCN is just the blend, is that correct?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4005 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:31 am

Blown Away wrote:Look at Ukmet, better than GFS at 120...
the gfs was off the from the beginning as it was too far north, not much but enough to make you discount it, as some said, why believe its future track when it cant get the initial 24 hours correct..doesnt mean it wont be good down the road but what we know now is that the euro was better and the nhc continues to stay left of the gfs
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4006 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:32 am

caneman wrote:Dang, I wish the UKMET went out further. I'm hugging the UKMET for this storm. The TVCN is just the blend, is that correct?


For 2017, the TVCN is a consensus model of the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, COAMPS, and UKMET
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4007 Postby shaneomac » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:34 am

Looks like Maine and Nova Scotia is out of the danger zone .
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4008 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:37 am

There remains a large spread in the 06z GFS ensembles, but there appears to be 0 members showing a recurve now:

Image
Last edited by USTropics on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4009 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:37 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Look at Ukmet, better than GFS at 120...
the gfs was off the from the beginning as it was too far north, not much but enough to make you discount it, as some said, why believe its future track when it cant get the initial 24 hours correct..doesnt mean it wont be good down the road but what we know now is that the euro was better and the nhc continues to stay left of the gfs


Maybe initially in the short term range. But a few days.ago they were modeling the Keys and GOM. This is solely looking at 120 hour accuracy and the Euro accuracy didn't go out that far. Further, at 120 hours and more, the Euros skill level goes down. You absolutely have to give credit to UKMET and TVCN 120 accuracy. Of course that's scary because both take IRMA far too close to Florida. Since we're still 7 or 8 days away, looking at model accuracy at 120 plus can be helpful for a possible landfall.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4010 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:39 am

USTropics wrote:
caneman wrote:Dang, I wish the UKMET went out further. I'm hugging the UKMET for this storm. The TVCN is just the blend, is that correct?


For 2017, the TVCN is a consensus model of the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, COAMPS, and UKMET


That's what I thought. Getting forgetful as I age. Lol. All the more reason to always go with the blend. Thanks
Last edited by caneman on Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4011 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:41 am

Here are how the models performed for Harvey (there is 120 hour data available for ECMWF):

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4012 Postby xironman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:42 am

shaneomac wrote:Looks like Maine and Nova Scotia is out of the danger zone .


I don't think that is an accurate statement. There definitely will be changes in the steering pattern and look at that vort over NE. It does not take to much imagination to see it getting involved.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4013 Postby forecasterjack » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:44 am

0Z ECMWF showing no dry air within several hundred miles of Irma when the storm is in the Bahamas: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 0000z.html. Weak (though not nonexistent) shear and warm waters will also help fuel intensification. I think this gets to high end cat 4 or low end cat 5 strength in the Bahamas. Either way, matters little. Whatever stands in the way of the core is going to have a really bad time.
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4014 Postby Prof » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:45 am

caneman wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Look at Ukmet, better than GFS at 120...
the gfs was off the from the beginning as it was too far north, not much but enough to make you discount it, as some said, why believe its future track when it cant get the initial 24 hours correct..doesnt mean it wont be good down the road but what we know now is that the euro was better and the nhc continues to stay left of the gfs


Maybe initially in the short term range. But a few days.ago they were modeling the Keys and GOM. This is solely looking at 120 hour accuracy and the Euro accuracy didn't go out that far. You absolutely have to give credit to UKMET and TVCN 120 accuracy. Of course that's scary because both take IRMA far too close to Florida.


I'm a novice at this but follow because I'm learning a lot and feel like I get great info. There are a lot less model photos and gifs posted in the model threads compared to last year. I don't know where to find them.

I'd appreciate if someone could post the UKMET and TVCN.

And, your go to sources for models would be great, too!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4015 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:46 am

USTropics wrote:Here are how the models performed for Harvey (there is 120 hour data available for ECMWF):

Image


Ok, Thanks again. The last one I saw only went to 72 hours for Euro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4016 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:48 am

[quote="USTropics"]Here are how the models performed for Harvey (there is 120 hour data available for ECMWF):

Image[/quote

That is actually pretty remarkable. All models, except one, are within 40 miles of each other at 120 hours out
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4017 Postby otowntiger » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:50 am

shaneomac wrote:Looks like Maine and Nova Scotia is out of the danger zone .
. Much too early to say that, I hate to say.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4018 Postby shaneomac » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:51 am

otowntiger wrote:
shaneomac wrote:Looks like Maine and Nova Scotia is out of the danger zone .
. Much too early to say that, I hate to say.

Sorry early morning for me i meant to say it looks like Maine and Nova Scotia is out of the picture for now .. subject to change :D
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4019 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:51 am

Prof wrote:
caneman wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:the gfs was off the from the beginning as it was too far north, not much but enough to make you discount it, as some said, why believe its future track when it cant get the initial 24 hours correct..doesnt mean it wont be good down the road but what we know now is that the euro was better and the nhc continues to stay left of the gfs


Maybe initially in the short term range. But a few days.ago they were modeling the Keys and GOM. This is solely looking at 120 hour accuracy and the Euro accuracy didn't go out that far. You absolutely have to give credit to UKMET and TVCN 120 accuracy. Of course that's scary because both take IRMA far too close to Florida.


I'm a novice at this but follow because I'm learning a lot and feel like I get great info. There are a lot less model photos and gifs posted in the model threads compared to last year. I don't know where to find them.

I'd appreciate if someone could post the UKMET and TVCN.

And, your go to sources for models would be great, too!


Look back a page or 2 and you'll see latest modelling and spaghetti models
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4020 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 03, 2017 6:54 am

06Z NAVGEM: :eek:

Image
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