ATL: IRMA - Models

[boca]

Does anyone think that Florida can be more in play with Irma with further westward shifts?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does anyone think that Florida can be more in play with Irma with further westward shifts?

Ask the NAVGEM

[caneman]

06Z NAVGEM:

Stop with that!! Thats scary. They were one of the others that were most accurate at 120 hours. Corrrction: that was Harvey. Not so accurate with Irma. The UKMET is alarming for Florida but it ends too soon but is most southerly.

[KWT]

Got to be said UKMO performing well this year, and it really has nailed Irma's track so far. It does best in situations where the ridging is strong and so in this case, I'd back it with all I have to be close to the money when it comes to track...which obviously is not a good thing.

All models are showing an exceptional set-up near the Bahamas, the GFS showing near perfect. All suggests we will have a poweful cane IF it avoids too much land interaction with PR and Hispaniola...unfortunatly both are really on the cards. If it misses land, a 5 is far more likely than climatology would suggest, even in the waters it will be in (which have produced several big 5s before, including Andrew...)

I think Florida is 100% in play, even the E.Gulf is probably still in play though that would require perfect timing from Irma to get that far west.

[GCANE]

Update
Forecast track of best performing models.
5-Days out, average error about 65 miles.

[caneman]

Update
Forecast track of best performing models.
5-Days out, average error about 65 miles.

If that model accuracy holds true for the next 120, hopefully Irma should pass well East of Florida. We'll see

[northjaxpro]

KWT, I agree completely with your post. A very sobering post at that. Every scenario imo is still very much on the table, especially landfall potential for the Southeast U.S. coast from Florida up to North Carolina.

[xironman]

Does anyone think that Florida can be more in play with Irma with further westward shifts?

Ask the NAVGEM

The CMC is also a Florida hit

[txwatcher91]

I went back and looked at old runs of the Euro... it’s shocking how well it has done in the extended range. Here is a comparison from an old day 10 run versus day 5 now.

Day 10 old run


Day 5

[gatorcane]

Definitely an alarming trend with the models going west the last 24 hours. The JMA may have had the right idea with the 12Z run we saw yesterday. The UKMET is much more south now:

[tolakram]

How many days ahead do models normaly handle devolepment of ridges with high accurancy?

Below are some links that allow you to ascertain how well a model forecast has verified as a function of forecast hour and cycle (it shows the most recent run in blue and then cycles through the previous runs for the same forecast hour in red):

ECMWF 00z/12z- http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ecmwf0012loop500.html
GFS 00z/12z - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html
GFS 06z/18z - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0618loop500.html
UKMET 00z/12z - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ukmet0012loop500.html
NAM 00z/12z - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/nam0012loop500.html

UK looking really good with the upper air patterns, and the NAM since this is where it excels.

[Spacecoast]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

[northjaxpro]

yes quite remarkable how accurate the EURO was in comparison to that 10 day run to the 5-day run currently.

Following the 5 day run now, the most concerning thing to take away is that the ridge will be even stronger and Irma will remain on the southern side of the solution , which likely would bring Irma even closer.to the islands!

[tolakram]

Here is the model verification page, for those interested.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml

[tolakram]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

[otowntiger]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

also the storm is still pretty small at that time, right?

[Blinhart]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

Right now the storm has a very small wind field, hurricane force winds only around 25 miles, and TS force winds around 80 miles. I'm sure it will be growing in size and the probability will get bigger. Also there is a possibility that the storm might take more than 5 days to get to Puerto Rico, so that might be another reason why the percentage is so low.

[YoshiMike]

Update
Forecast track of best performing models.
5-Days out, average error about 65 miles.

If that model accuracy holds true for the next 120, hopefully Irma should pass well East of Florida. We'll see

well, if that's the case, I hope it would recurve OTS and not slam into the mid Atlantic or NE. especially since our buildings weren't built to withstand something this disastrous. Maybe in the areas where sandy devastated previously, they are a little more prepared, but god forbid a cat 3 or above hit like Connecticut or RI, they'd be like off the map. (Note, not saying it will or predicting it, just stating opinion)

Anyone have any tips and the websites (besides noaa.nhc.gov I know that one fairly well) to staying on top of things? I kinda have to rely on you guys, cuz I don't know where to find the models and tracks. I stumbled across one website at one point but was really hard to understand and now I can't even remember what it is. I'm just trying to stay on top of things so I can warn my family if need be. I'm in Shelton, CT, so I'm pretty close to the Long Island sound.

[tolakram]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

also the storm is still pretty small at that time, right?

Hard to say, still seems to vary run to run. It's still beyond 5 days and nothing is set in stone.

[USTropics]

The NHC's Wind speed probability of Hurricane force winds for Puerto Rico for the next 5 days is:

10% ?????
Doesn't that seem like a very low probability?

Weaker side of the storm, and so far it looks like it will move far enough away.

also the storm is still pretty small at that time, right?

The NHC expects the radius to increase (from their 5am discussion):

Code: Select all

While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance
suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will
affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward
and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue
to monitor Irma's progress.