#4069 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:28 am
Just been too busy pre-prepping yesterday and catching up this morning to all the model data. Not liking what I see AT ALL. The most troubling thing is the agreement coming together on the ridging and the trough becoming much more of a shortwave. The slowing of Irma, and potential to slip a little south at apex of her turn is quite unsettling because we're getting into the higher skill timeframes on models.
UKMET is showing us something on the SW movement, but if the GFS is the ultimate solution, I can tell you that NC will be front page news. The GFS track goes right up I-40 (just like Fran did) yet would be much stronger and have a larger wind field. The surge would be catastrophic for Wilmington, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Surf City, Atlantic Beach, Morehead City. Al the way up through Raleigh there will be massive flooding, trees down etc. Power in many places would be out for 2-3 weeks. We just have never had a storm that powerful take that track, period.
Bottom line, if we continue to see agreement between ECMWF and UKMET by tomorrow morning, then I think that's really go time for folks who want to take every precaution. Gas is already getting hard to get and you won't find plywood and supplies Tuesday afternoon. Thanks to the all folks on this board who put in the time that gives us extra time to prepare and be informed!!!
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