ATL: IRMA - Models

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Pughetime12
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4061 Postby Pughetime12 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:58 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo


I hear ya! I'm in Mt. Pleasant and we were extremely fortunate to have minor damage from Matthew. A storm like Irma would destroy my home and I don't know what we'd do.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4062 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:02 am

Ken711 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo


I've been thinking Isabel and still sticking with that.


Katrina/Rita/Andrew/Lili for me
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4063 Postby GCANE » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:02 am

Latest COAMPS
Cat 5 on closest approach to Islands

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4064 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:02 am

Blinhart wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo


I've been thinking Isabel and still sticking with that.


Katrina/Rita/Andrew/Lili for me


Donna has been at the front of my head for a while
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4065 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:08 am

GCANE wrote:Latest COAMPS
Cat 5 on closest approach to Islands

Image


Never followed this model but that is significantly sw to what it was before.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4066 Postby Fishing » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:13 am

Pughetime12 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo


I hear ya! I'm in Mt. Pleasant and we were extremely fortunate to have minor damage from Matthew. A storm like Irma would destroy my home and I don't know what we'd do.

We are in Mount Pleasant too. Up in the Park West area. We stayed for Hugo and were in Harborgate then.
You take it a day at a time and cherish your family. Life rebuilds but it definitely is a life altering experience. I've already got our plan in mind and have cautiously booked a couple rooms out of town that I can cancel. We are praying for the out to sea forecast but it sure seems like that window is closing. We should know a lot more by Tuesday after all the recon data come in.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4067 Postby Fishing » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:14 am

Oh shoot ...mods please move my post to discussion. I posted in wrong forum! Sorry!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4068 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:18 am

Fishing wrote:
Pughetime12 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Hugo keeps going round and round in my head. It seems every run has a track closer to Hugo


I hear ya! I'm in Mt. Pleasant and we were extremely fortunate to have minor damage from Matthew. A storm like Irma would destroy my home and I don't know what we'd do.

We are in Mount Pleasant too. Up in the Park West area. We stayed for Hugo and were in Harborgate then.
You take it a day at a time and cherish your family. Life rebuilds but it definitely is a life altering experience. I've already got our plan in mind and have cautiously booked a couple rooms out of town that I can cancel. We are praying for the out to sea forecast but it sure seems like that window is closing. We should know a lot more by Tuesday after all the recon data come in.


The only thing I'm not sure about is whether I would need to board up windows if it looks like a landfall here
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4069 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:28 am

Just been too busy pre-prepping yesterday and catching up this morning to all the model data. Not liking what I see AT ALL. The most troubling thing is the agreement coming together on the ridging and the trough becoming much more of a shortwave. The slowing of Irma, and potential to slip a little south at apex of her turn is quite unsettling because we're getting into the higher skill timeframes on models.

UKMET is showing us something on the SW movement, but if the GFS is the ultimate solution, I can tell you that NC will be front page news. The GFS track goes right up I-40 (just like Fran did) yet would be much stronger and have a larger wind field. The surge would be catastrophic for Wilmington, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach, Surf City, Atlantic Beach, Morehead City. Al the way up through Raleigh there will be massive flooding, trees down etc. Power in many places would be out for 2-3 weeks. We just have never had a storm that powerful take that track, period.

Bottom line, if we continue to see agreement between ECMWF and UKMET by tomorrow morning, then I think that's really go time for folks who want to take every precaution. Gas is already getting hard to get and you won't find plywood and supplies Tuesday afternoon. Thanks to the all folks on this board who put in the time that gives us extra time to prepare and be informed!!!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4070 Postby Jimsot » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:35 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Fishing wrote:
Pughetime12 wrote:
I hear ya! I'm in Mt. Pleasant and we were extremely fortunate to have minor damage from Matthew. A storm like Irma would destroy my home and I don't know what we'd do.

We are in Mount Pleasant too. Up in the Park West area. We stayed for Hugo and were in Harborgate then.
You take it a day at a time and cherish your family. Life rebuilds but it definitely is a life altering experience. I've already got our plan in mind and have cautiously booked a couple rooms out of town that I can cancel. We are praying for the out to sea forecast but it sure seems like that window is closing. We should know a lot more by Tuesday after all the recon data come in.


Can you give me an idea of what the impact would be here in the upstate of SC. We are just a bit south of Spartanburg. We have only been here less than two years.

The only thing I'm not sure about is whether I would need to board up windows if it looks like a landfall here
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4071 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:37 am

I'm seeing something similar to Donna and Frances but if the ridge rebuild easily then it's (hopefully not) the A storm.... That's just my unprofessional opinion from the recent trends in global model runs.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4072 Postby WAcyclone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 9:59 am

gatorcane wrote:UKMET is moving WNW at end not NW:

https://s26.postimg.org/5n9h9ozux/ukm2. ... .gentr.png


I would say it is definitely slowing down and starting some kind of turn shortly before the end of the forecast period. Note that the NOAA chart does not show as many forecast positions as the FSU one:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4073 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:11 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm seeing something similar to Donna and Frances but if the ridge rebuild easily then it's (hopefully not) the A storm.... That's just my unprofessional opinion from the recent trends in global model runs.


Euro and GFS both show possible landfalls much further North than Frances. More in line with Isabel in 2003.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4074 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:29 am

Ken711 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm seeing something similar to Donna and Frances but if the ridge rebuild easily then it's (hopefully not) the A storm.... That's just my unprofessional opinion from the recent trends in global model runs.


Euro and GFS both show possible landfalls much further North than Frances. More in line with Isabel in 2003.


Hurricane Isabel never came anywhere near the Leeward Islands or the Bahamas, Irma is forecast to effect both areas. I do not see many similarities to Isabel other then the final landfall in the extended range models being in North Carolina.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4075 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:33 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm seeing something similar to Donna and Frances but if the ridge rebuild easily then it's (hopefully not) the A storm.... That's just my unprofessional opinion from the recent trends in global model runs.


Euro and GFS both show possible landfalls much further North than Frances. More in line with Isabel in 2003.


Hurricane Isabel never came anywhere near the Leeward Islands or the Bahamas, Irma is forecast to effect both areas. I do not see many similarities to Isabel other then the final landfall in the extended range models being in North Carolina.


It's the long range models final landfall projections I'm referring to.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4076 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:35 am

12z GFS currently running

Can't post plots because I'm on mobile
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4077 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:35 am

Ken711 wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I'm seeing something similar to Donna and Frances but if the ridge rebuild easily then it's (hopefully not) the A storm.... That's just my unprofessional opinion from the recent trends in global model runs.


Euro and GFS both show possible landfalls much further North than Frances. More in line with Isabel in 2003.

I know. I have actually been tracking Irma as well. Both models went OTS at some point and I am basing my opinion from the trends as earlier mentioned. UKMO, a well-performing model, shifted dramatically SW of other models and more models and even the official track have been trending that way as well. Matthew was expected to go OTS and Ike was headed for Florida in some runs before. Furthermore, it's over a week's time prior to possible landfall and there are numerous possibilities too premature to rule out like a Northeast US landfall or even a GOM strike (though becoming less likely) so it's to early to be assertive and definite enough to provide such assumptions or forecast.

Isabel never went as close to the Lucayan Archipelago, Antilles and Puerto Rico as Irma is forecast by the NHC and models.
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4078 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:36 am

Perhaps the 12z GFS has a slight bit of good news for us??? Slightly NW of the 06z position.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4079 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:37 am

Slightly NW through HR30...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#4080 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 10:38 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Slightly NW through HR30...


Any shift North is better for the islands. They'll take what they can get right now.
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