ATL: IRMA - Models

[forecasterjack]

Hard for me to put full faith in that little GOM disturbance to turn Irma N. 500mb vorticity: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/72 ... 1800z.html other parameters via menu, click to zoom in, click edge to pan

[ConvergenceZone]

When I see a storm take that kind of a turn, at least it gives us hope that out to sea is still definitely possible

[Aric Dunn]

maybe loop, full recurve or a turn back nw .. ridging building in to the north..

[birddogsc]

Euro barely misses Florida but the key point is that it trended SW of 00Z. Wouldn't take much of a shift and South Florida gets the core of Irma. Considering it is 168 hours out we are well within margin of error.

Of course, this is very much dependent on "Jose" helping to erode the high. This is the first run we have seen that models this, yes?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO if in the following run trends remain the same, this may be the ECMWF/GFS scenario. Perhaps a good analog?

[AutoPenalti]

That sharp N turn doesn't seem right, it would have to slow down immensely and almost stall for that to occur.

[SFLcane]

Wow definitely not a very good trend at all for SFL hope this stops.

[marciacubed]

Really don't like the Jeff Masters cone. We live in SoFl but our daughter is in a 3rd floor crappy built apartment at FSU. When husband and I moved her in the only thing he said was I hope she doesn't get hit by a hurricane. Last year was not bad but Irma looks fierce. I don't want it it come to my house either. Out to sea Irma!! Go go

[otowntiger]

Looks to be on a route OTS, correct?

Yes- looks like it takes nearly a 90 degree turn there jus southeast of Miami and strata going northeast. Wow! What a shift! Got to be a major change in the pattern for that to happen. It could Miss land altogether this run.

[ava_ati]

That sharp N turn doesn't seem right, it would have to slow down immensely and almost stall for that to occur.

I agree, in my non-expert opinion, this run shouldn't make anyone feel good about much of anything. The only thing you can take from it is it is trending west towards Florida and we should probably prepare ourselves for a life changing event.

[FLeastcoast]

Ha this is nuts, 200 plus pages on a model thread of an Atlantic hurricane...never seen that before. Irma definately has our attention.

I'll just say this. Until it gets closer to the islands it's probably early to get mired down in windshield wiping. We all do this every storm...it's south, it's north, it's west. It's fun to watch but Miamia and western Bahamas aren't even in the 5 day cone yet so stuff will still change. I am still concerned about the prospect of it missing the trough and driving more west. But agreed Carolinas look bad right now. Just have many storms where consensus showed Carolinas 5 days out only for it to end up in the gulf or fish. So I'll be watching closely but probably not losing sleep until it gets to Antigua latitude.

Also, 880s mb pressure north of Miami, I don't buy. Period. I suppose it's not "impossible" but I am betting it's a large storm so pressure can get really low and winds not be as crazy. Either way a large 920 storm will be strong and cause tons of damage.

I am a new member..this is my first post. I live near Gainesville,FL area. I know that no one can accurately predict this far out where Irma will go, but can anyone more experienced than me give me an idea of the time frame I should be concerned about it if was to hit near my area? I have 3 huge dogs and 3 special needs children and doing things last minute is extremely difficult for us. I would need to rent a different place to go to. My house would not be safe in strong winds and I am struggling to figure out what dates to rent a place for. Any help would be so greatly appreciated.

[birddogsc]

That sharp N turn doesn't seem right, it would have to slow down immensely and almost stall for that to occur.

No sign of a real slowdown in the run. And this is a large storm, they don't turn on a dime.

Honestly, I'm not believing that the ridge is eroded that much or that the through is going to be that strong.

Didn't the 12Z run last yesterday do a recurve? Is there something different about the 12Z vs 0Z?

[joey]

Wow definitely not a very good trend at all for SFL hope this stops.

what we get from the euro each run goes further west into fl so far

[Alyono]

EC stays offshore this run

[Aric Dunn]

somewhat unexpected turn but the sw shift continues..

[ConvergenceZone]

EC stays offshore this run

Fantastic News!

[Kohlecane]

It may be worth noting in the latest 12z run, Irma's pressure is higher at 942 mb by 21 mb in contrast to the 921 mb prior

Still would be a Major anything over a 2 or below 965mb makes me cringe

[otowntiger]

Perhaps in the following run and trends remain the same, this may be the ECMWF/GFS scenario. Perhaps a good analog?

This latest Euro does look similar- that's Donna, right? Irma looks to parallel Donna, just further east by enough to miss the CONUS. Of course it looks like the Bahamas get whacked no matter what.

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting to see if some of the other models later today follow the EURO and begin moving it out to sea as well now

[Steve H.]

Yes, this run is 50 - 100 miles west relative to Grand Bahama island than the 0Z run. Not very comforting for us in central Florida. More runs to come!