ATL: IRMA - Models

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

So, if I am not mistaken, looking at the 6Z , Cuba may have two landfalls from Irma. It looks as if Irma landfall on Eastern Cuba and emerges briefly into the Caribbean, and then comes back north to crossthe central Cuba region, then moves across Key West.

It's really close, but looks like it's just one landfall in Cuba:

Deepening over land is out of the normal realms,core needs water for fuel.

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF now crosses Cuba and gets into the Caribbean




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[Happy Pelican]

Florida needs to definitely start making preps now but (again, MY OPINION) I think once Irma begins her turn north, we'll see models begin an easterly trend and perhaps have a "Donna" like path on our hands.

I know tensions are running high and we're all worried about what Irma's next move so let's keep leaning on each other for support and remain respectful towards one another.

[northjaxpro]

Well let me remind you what we just saw last week with Harvey. Harvey's inner core remarkably stayed well iintact long after landfall well inland across South Texss. So I wouldn't get too comfortable thinking that.

Harvey had a clear track in the GOM with hundreds of miles too reform a core, ,The track on that GFS run is nothing alike to harvey.

Some cores crash very quick.

All tropical cyclones are not alike. , My point to you was only to bring the example Harvey showed us all, that you can not automatically assume that the inner core would rapidly get disrupted. Circumstances dictate how that would evolve. Hugo 's inner core stayed well intact hundreds of miles inland after making landfall in Charleston, SC, causing significant damage in Charlotte. NC and across the NC Piedmont.

We are just having a friendly discussion, and I appreciate it this morning.

[seahawkjd]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

What model is EPS?

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

What model is EPS?

European ensembles.

[Hurricaneman]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

What model is EPS?

Euro ensembles

[AdamFirst]

What model is EPS?

EURO ensembles.

I'll go ahead and edit my post to ask (not you in particular, Seahawk):

What would cause the westward movement into the northern Cuba coast? UKMET was one of the first to sniff that out.

Also hard to buy the intensity on that 06z GFS run... even if the land is flat over that part of Cuba Id imagine there would be some disruption. Rather than the 00z run where it hugs the coast.

[seahawkjd]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

What model is EPS?

European ensembles.

So was that for the upcoming Euro run or from the one that ran last night? Thanks for the answers.

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

I think this solution of Carolina landfall makes climatological sense. I think euro will win this one. I'm banking on it. I live on the west coast of Florida.

[robbielyn]

What model is EPS?

European ensembles.

So was that for the upcoming Euro run or from the one that ran last night? Thanks for the answers.

this morning's.

[Vdogg]

What model is EPS?

European ensembles.

So was that for the upcoming Euro run or from the one that ran last night? Thanks for the answers.

00Z, the one that ran this morning.

[AdamFirst]

It's also looking like the storm has ceased the southerly component of her movement (or is about to), according to recon data. That is key for tracks closer to the islands.

[caneman]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

I think this solution of Carolina landfall makes climatological sense. I think euro will win this one. I'm banking on it. I live on the west coast of Florida.

UKMET and TVCN have been most accurate thus far long range. If you're going to bank on anything in the 6 to 7 day range, I'd bank on those. Good or bad. Anyone have the current spaghetti models they can share? Thanks

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhyd ... rm_display

Prob should not have asked caneman

[USTropics]

I think this solution of Carolina landfall makes climatological sense. I think euro will win this one. I'm banking on it. I live on the west coast of Florida.

UKMET and TVCN have been most accurate thus far long range. If you're going to bank on anything in the 6 to 7 day range, I'd bank on those. Good or bad. Anyone have the current spaghetti models they can share? Thanks

[Blown Away]

No reason not to think W model shifts won't continue until we get a pushback run, then we know where the uncertainty spot is and models have some disagreement... I suspect the ultimate track will be a little more smooth than a right angle turn... JMHO

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904669911594786818

I think this solution of Carolina landfall makes climatological sense. I think euro will win this one. I'm banking on it. I live on the west coast of Florida.

UKMET and TVCN have been most accurate thus far long range. If you're going to bank on anything in the 6 to 7 day range, I'd bank on those. Good or bad. Anyone have the current spaghetti models they can share? Thanks

that's fine tcvn has south florida to Carolina landfall. not as scary for us nw of Tampa. I'm very vigilantly monitoring this but being 7 days out and living here for most of my life, I'm not freaking out just yet.

[CourierPR]

It's also looking like the storm has ceased the southerly component of her movement (or is about to), according to recon data. That is key for tracks closer to the islands.

Recon heading was WSW at 255 degrees.

[caneman]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Prob should not have asked caneman

Looks like most avoid Dominica and the mountainous region of Cuba although inflow could be disrupted somewhat depending how close. That would be bad news for Florida