ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

If Irma moves due W and doesn't drop any more latitude I'm thinking that's a bit N of the model guidance that shows more of a dip over next 24-36hrs. The result might be N adjustments late in the forecast. Just an uneducated observation of the info that has been discussed.

[Hurricaneman]

If Irma moves due W and doesn't drop any more latitude I'm thinking that's a bit N of the model guidance that shows more of a dip over next 24-36hrs. The result might be N adjustments late in the forecast. Just an uneducated observation of the info that has been discussed.

Also means the ridge is not as strong as predicted

[Blown Away]

Track will probably lock now

Track will not 'lock' for several more days, if then.
..

No way, those model tracks near Florida are 6+ days out... If we could bet on the path, maybe in Vegas you can, I would still bet E of Fl...

[eastcoastFL]

Melbourne NWS Outlook For Treasure Coast and Central :


DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Near normal shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow will increase
to above normal from mid to late week as an early season cool front
sags into north Florida and stalls.

The forecast for this weekend remains highly uncertain as Major
Hurricane Irma moves over or near the southern Bahamas. It is still
too early to be specific about any direct impacts that Irma might
have on east central Florida, other than mentioning the forecast
shows continued high rain chances and increasingly breezy to windy
conditions.

Expect boating and surf conditions to become increasingly hazardous
by late week, and possibly quite dangerous by this weekend.

Given the increasing likelihood that the system will eventually pass
near or across southern Bahamas later this week, it remains prudent
for persons in east central Florida to closely monitor the system,
including forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, and National
Weather Service. If you haven`t already done so, please review your
personal hurricane plan. Ensure you have a fully stocked hurricane

[eastcoastFL]

Don't need recon, it's pretty much due W now...

That's just one frame and it even ends south of where that frame starts. Still overall south of west.

[GCANE]

Wind field is defintely expanding based on flight-level measurements from Kermit

[NJWxHurricane]

Don't need recon, it's pretty much due W now...

That's just one frame and it even ends south of where that frame starts. Still overall south of west.

It's due west with a slight north wobble imo

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 8:40am EDT:

[1900hurricane]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

[RL3AO]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

I wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes its first run at a strong cat 4 or cat 5 after this EWRC.

[txwatcher91]

That visible loop cover about 7 hours and during the time the eye is visible it’s moving right along the 17N line. It may have a wobble here and there south but it definitely looks like the WSW motion may be coming to an end if trends continue. That would be great news for the islands as it may lift north enough to miss them.

[HurricaneEric]

I really do think this will be a SoFla event unfortunately. Not based on anything concrete of course, but I just feel like our luck has really run out.

Anyways, I'm already (as many in Miami) preparing supply-wise just in case. Flashlights, water, batteries, etc. My thinking is that if Miami is under the gun with a consensus from the models by Wednesday (as a Cat 4 or 5 landfalling), I'm sitting down with my family and starting to pack important things and figuring out where to evacuate to. Then Thursday/Friday would be the time to leave (after making sure everything at our place is secure). Not sure if that would be too late though...

[msbee]

Good morning from the NE Caribbean,

[Blown Away]

All hurricanes passing within 65 miles of the NHC's 5 day position of 22N/76.5W... Donna looks like the best idea per this mornings models...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/904693014609752065

[weathaguyry]

In my opinion, nothing is off the table yet, Track guidance continues to move W, so I wouldn't necessarily lock onto an FL landfall, just my complete opinion

[1900hurricane]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

I wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes its first run at a strong cat 4 or cat 5 after this EWRC.

I'm pretty confident that the completion of this one will take us above the category 4 threshold, but I'm not as confident beyond that. There is still a non-negligible amount of dry air orbiting around Irma. Although it's not penetrating towards the core right now, I do wonder if it will mess with and possibly prolong eyewall replacement. If Irma manages to wall it off though, it should be all systems go.

[pavelbure224]

Tuesday or Wednesday we should have a better idea on where this could go. There will be alot of recon plus the NOAA 49 G-IV will probably be flying daily. We all need to be on alert. Most important is just be prepared.

[PTPatrick]

I would say to everyone now hoping that Irma will get torn up over Cuba and Hispaniola...
1: we don't know track yet because it's too far out. How much land she crossed will play a role in what she can do to the conus.

2: islands can tear up systems, but the models have consistently shown a strong storm near so Florida. If conditions and right, no shear, etc, it not inconceivable a storm could survive a brush with Cuba and make it out strong.

3: we need only look to Georges which literally I think traversed piece of large land in the carribean except Jamaica, from PR to the tip of Cuba. And still kept an inner core. And hit Mississippi as a car 2...I realize not as dramatic as a cat 5 into Miami but it shows they can't be underestimated. Georges also fought shear much of his time in the Gulf I believe.

[wxman57]

I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.