ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 13:30Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 22 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 13:13:23Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°46'N 52°57'W (16.7667N 52.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 511 statute miles (823 km) to the ENE (60°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,639m (8,658ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 84kts (~ 96.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ENE (72°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 155° at 102kts (From the SSE at ~ 117.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,944m (9,659ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,390m (11,122ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye)
M. Inner Eye Diameter: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
M. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 117kts (~ 134.6mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NW (315°) from the flight level center at 9:06:56Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 19kts (From the E at 22mph)

[RL3AO]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

And if you've ever been around Miami 2-3 days before a storm is projected to hit, frenzy is not a strong enough word. Godspeed to all my friends in the islands, batten down and I pray you're okay.

The frenzy might start a bit earlier after Harvey. I also wonder how the water supplies will be at stores. The major retailers like Walmart may have shifted some of their water supplies towards TX. I've always wondered how much their meteorologists impact stuff like that.

[HurricaneEric]

I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.

Man this is starting to look bad. The chances of having a second major strike on the CONUS and it possibly landfalling twice in different areas would be a nightmare... If SoFla and Carolinas, would this become the costliest Atlantic hurricane season ever?

EDIT: Also hope for the best for our friends in the islands. A lot of times we talk about CONUS but there will be immediate threats prior to that in the northern Lesser Antilles and now a greater threat to PR, Hispaniola, Bahamas, and Cuba. Wow thats a lot of lives this storm can ruin..

[ObsessedMiami]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

Very strong words from Norcross, but we are a day or so from that crucial timeframe, can't blame him.

In fairness to him, here is the rest of his post (only omitted a list of items to purchase)
"In Florida, due to the large number of people that may have to prepare, good sense says to do it early. It is impossible to know how bad the hit will be, but all of the evidence points to a significant threat. TODAY is the day to begin the preparation process.
Review your plan and take the first steps"


wonder how the gas crunch due to Harvey will feed into any FL evacuations???

[stormreader]

Here it comes.

[RL3AO]

GOES 16 now providing 1 minute data on Irma.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1252&y=1144&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[otowntiger]

Bryan Norcross just posted a Facebook update post:

"Monday morning update on HURRICANE IRMA: It increasingly looks like Irma will be a direct threat to South Florida. I am recommending that everybody get their supplies now... TODAY... before the frenzy starts in a few days."

I think his words may just cause the frenzy to start today. . But seriously it's better to start it early even if it is a frenzy. I'd rather be in the mix of a frenzy with some time to spare than in one with the weather deteriorating outside and real panic setting in.

[northjaxpro]

I would say to everyone now hoping that Irma will get torn up over Cuba and Hispaniola...
1: we don't know track yet because it's too far out. How much land she crossed will play a role in what she can do to the conus.

2: islands can tear up systems, but the models have consistently shown a strong storm near so Florida. If conditions and right, no shear, etc, it not inconceivable a storm could survive a brush with Cuba and make it out strong.

3: we need only look to Georges which literally I think traversed piece of large land in the carribean except Jamaica, from PR to the tip of Cuba. And still kept an inner core. And hit Mississippi as a car 2...I realize not as dramatic as a cat 5 into Miami but it shows they can't be underestimated. Georges also fought shear much of his time in the Gulf I believe.

I forgot about Georges, a truly remarkable tropical cyclone. I'm happy that you bought up Georges because I remember the tracking of that storm, and as you mentioned in your post above, Georges traversed over the entire Caribbean island chain. That storm interacted with just about every island, and somehow maintained its inner core. A fascinating storm for me and a perfect example of that we can't just assume that the inner core will rapidly dissolve or get disrupted once it makes landfall, wherever that may be.

I had a conversation with a poster earlier this morning about this very subject. We cannot assume that we will see rapid disruption of the inner core once landfall occurs. Georges is the perfect example of this.

I'm very concerned that. Irma wil potentially reach the extreme Eastern Gulf of Mexico before pulling north or northeast, so very interesting situation as we have to watch very closely. Everyone from the extreme Eastern GOM up to North Carolina needs to watch this extremely close the remainder of this week and into the weekend.

[Michele B]

Microwave and recon data show an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.

I wouldn't be surprised if Irma makes its first run at a strong cat 4 or cat 5 after this EWRC.

Very warm waters ahead. NO doubt it will strengthen.

[GCANE]

[stormreader]

I would say to everyone now hoping that Irma will get torn up over Cuba and Hispaniola...
1: we don't know track yet because it's too far out. How much land she crossed will play a role in what she can do to the conus.

2: islands can tear up systems, but the models have consistently shown a strong storm near so Florida. If conditions and right, no shear, etc, it not inconceivable a storm could survive a brush with Cuba and make it out strong.

3: we need only look to Georges which literally I think traversed piece of large land in the carribean except Jamaica, from PR to the tip of Cuba. And still kept an inner core. And hit Mississippi as a car 2...I realize not as dramatic as a cat 5 into Miami but it shows they can't be underestimated. Georges also fought shear much of his time in the Gulf I believe.

I forgot about Georges, a truly remarkable tropical cyclone. I'm happy that you bought up Georges because I remember the tracking of that storm, and as you mentioned in your post above, Georges traversed over the entire Caribbean island . That storm interacted with just about every island, and somehow maintained its inner core. A fascinating storm for me and a perfect example of that we can't just assume that the inner core will rapidly dissolve once it makes landfall. I had a conversation with a poster earlier this morning about this very subject. We cannot assume that we will see rapid disruption of the inner core once landfall occurs. Georges is the perfect example of this.

I'm very concerned that. Irma wil potentially reach the extreme Eastern Gulf of Mexico before pulling north or northeast, so very interesting situation as we have to watch very closely. Everyone from the extreme Eastern GOM up to North Carolina needs to watch this extremely close the remainder of this week and into the weekend.

No doubt. The West Coast of Fl is now heavily involved with a possible Irma future.

[knotimpaired]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

[RL3AO]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 9:41am EDT:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Closeup through 9:41am EDT:

[dexterlabio]

This looks like a stunning case of EWRC a la Harvey. Although I am as well curious if future EWRCs would still result to intensification or leveling off. I recall last year's Cat5 Haima having a number of EWRCs that resulted to a mega eye wall, though its winds came down to Cat4 strength. I remember an interesting theory I read somewhere relating botched EWRCs to lack of excellent outflow.

[stormreader]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

And its going to be very close to you. God bless!

[painkillerr]

I'm not liking the westward trend. Could well hit south FL and then the Carolinas. Difficult to tell where the north turn will occur. Eastern Gulf not out of the picture.

Man this is starting to look bad. The chances of having a second major strike on the CONUS and it possibly landfalling twice in different areas would be a nightmare... If SoFla and Carolinas, would this become the costliest Atlantic hurricane season ever?

EDIT: Also hope for the best for our friends in the islands. A lot of times we talk about CONUS but there will be immediate threats prior to that in the northern Lesser Antilles and now a greater threat to PR, Hispaniola, Bahamas, and Cuba. Wow thats a lot of lives this storm can ruin..

Thanks Eric. It's a bit discouraging being out here in the islands when most of the discussion is about CONUS.

[weathaguyry]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

God Bless You, and the people who live on your Island, my prayers are out, as that would be a nightmare scenario if the storm comes into your area.

[La Sirena]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

That's terrible you only have one shelter available. Surely they will open the schools despite the last experience. No possibility of hopping on the last boat out?

I've seen a lot of support for those on the islands here but please remember that there are many, many Floridians that are members here. I don't think anyone's forgotten about the impacts upon PR. Hope you are spared the worst of the storm.