ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[invest man]

12z Guidance...


06z Guidance...

TVCN did shift slightly N near Cuba and E near Florida... Let's see if this is a trend...

TVCN has the Euro in its mix. Let's see what happens after the next Euro run. My guess, west.

Maybe but the Euro trend for 12z has been back east over the last few days. Will be interesting to see however!

[Kazmit]

Seems to have stopped losing latitude, at least for now. Hopefully it's reaching it's long-term W to WNW motion, as it would be better for the islands.

[Irina]

Yes but east of US 1 and the barrier islands do get evacuated. I live between US 1 and Biscayne Bay and my building will shut
down. We will be evacuated if we reach that level.
Good Luck.
irina

[eastcoastFL]

Agreed, Large scale evacuation of south Florida, esp for a south to north traveling storm isn't sensible. I suspect that there will still be enough track uncertainty that in the 4 days it would take to do it the storm could easily move to where you've evacuated to. Best thing people can do is to shelter inland with family or friends in strong homes, or designated shelters, and be ready for discomfort. We have been hearing this since Floyd yet people still attempt mass evacuation.

My wife and I were just discussing this. Our plan was to leave if it was just coming into the east coast but now if it's going to be felt almost statewide we have nowhere to go really. So if it's stronger than cat 2 we'll be heading to a shelter. There's a school near us that's just 4 years old and that will be where we go.

[Blown Away]

Seems to have stopped losing latitude, at least for now. Hopefully it's reaching it's long-term W to WNW motion, as it would be better for the islands.

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...

[BlowHard]

Just to put it into context for the 9,400 residents of Vieques. We have 1, yes one, hurricane shelter on the island and it will hold 300 people max.

They used to open schools for shelters but after Hugo when residents were still living in them over a month interrupting the school schedule, they shut them down. Officially our boats are stopping tomorrow morning but local gossip says the last boat leaving will be at 3 pm today.

So while some of you continue to talk about Florida, NJ and the east coast, think about the 9,100 residents of our beautiful island that will have no place to seek shelter if we get hit by a cat 4.

Yeah, keep talking about Florida.

That's terrible you only have one shelter available. Surely they will open the schools despite the last experience. No possibility of hopping on the last boat out?

I've seen a lot of support for those on the islands here but please remember that there are many, many Floridians that are members here. I don't think anyone's forgotten about the impacts upon PR. Hope you are spared the worst of the storm.

The person selling tickets this morning at the ferry was selectively selling to only his friends. People were showing proof of residency and still denied tickets. Not to worry though, there are pictures and it is going viral on Facebook. He will not have his job for long.

He won't have his job but it won't matter with a devestated island. It is beyond frustrating to watch people in ny post about their landfall fears in the face of this. And btw, how long do you think it takes to move 10000 people via boat? The boats hold 250 people and 13 cars. The trip is about an hour and a half each way. Go do the math.....just sayin.....

[johngaltfla]

Near me in Long Beach, NY, a giant truck left with supplies for Houston yesterday, as I'm sure many areas are doing this, water is running somewhat low due to this, even in New York, so I can only imagine the nightmare starting to unfold in Florida

I'll let you know. I'm heading to Costco to grab some extra bottled water since I'll probably have to evac to my inlaws if this turns into a coast hugger on the Gulf side.

[cycloneye]

Air Force mission is underway departing from St Croix.

[Patrick99]

I would also add....we have been in a lot of 5 day cones before. Sometimes that verifies but often, it does not. Just throwing that out there.....though I would have to lend some credence to Norcross's strong statement.

[CourierPR]

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...[/quote]

Looking at the loop, it appears to still be heading WSW or just south of due west. It appears to be right on track to me.

[Snowman67]

Having just experienced Harvey here in SE Texas, some folks are "alarmed" when they see Irma out there. I don't see any plausible scenario where this gets into the Western GOM ( I know anything is possible). From those more experienced, would like to know if you tend to agree or disagree. I would think that the trough scheduled to mone SE across the US would pick and move anything before it could make it this far west.

[johngaltfla]

Having just experienced Harvey here in SE Texas, some folks are "alarmed" when they see Irma out there. I don't see any plausible scenario where this gets into the Western GOM ( I know anything is possible). From those more experienced, would like to know if you tend to agree or disagree. I would think that the trough scheduled to mone SE across the US would pick and move anything before it could make it this far west.

My bigger concern for y'all is that mess stirring in the Bay of Campeche. It's starting to get its act together slowly and the last thing TX needs is more rain (like we don't need it either).

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's actually stairstepping. I remember several hours ago it moved due west then resumed its west-southwesterly motion... Likely to see it again

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin
Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

[johngaltfla]

The last two lines of the 1100 Disco are disturbing...

96H 08/1200Z 21.2N 73.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 22.0N 77.8W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA

Not good for Florida.

[Madpoodle]

Near me in Long Beach, NY, a giant truck left with supplies for Houston yesterday, as I'm sure many areas are doing this, water is running somewhat low due to this, even in New York, so I can only imagine the nightmare starting to unfold in Florida

I'll let you know. I'm heading to Costco to grab some extra bottled water since I'll probably have to evac to my inlaws if this turns into a coast hugger on the Gulf side.

Walmart @ Collier and I-75 had tons last night. Low on Gatorade etc. already though.

[invest man]

Seems to have stopped losing latitude, at least for now. Hopefully it's reaching it's long-term W to WNW motion, as it would be better for the islands.

It's slight and may average out before next forecast point, but a bit N of the track...

Was just thinking,could we see the w-wnw movement come sooner than expected? Also my thinking was/is intensification probably wouldn't start until that westerly movement begun due to the shear the hp was inflicting on it. Perhaps the reason for it going up a little in strength now is because the hp has let up s little thus shear has gone down some as well. Any thoughts? IM

[Evil Jeremy]

I hope all our members in the NE Caribbean are ready for a worst case scenario.

Language in the discussion is amping up:

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions
will begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.
Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts
Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone
in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

[johngaltfla]

I hope all our members in the NE Caribbean are ready for a worst case scenario.

Language in the discussion is amping up:

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions
will begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.
Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts
Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone
in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

It's about to get nuts here in Florida. Buckle up gang, that track is not favorable for anyone from I-4 South anywhere in the state.

[PTPatrick]

Agreed, Large scale evacuation of south Florida, esp for a south to north traveling storm isn't sensible. I suspect that there will still be enough track uncertainty that in the 4 days it would take to do it the storm could easily move to where you've evacuated to. Best thing people can do is to shelter inland with family or friends in strong homes, or designated shelters, and be ready for discomfort. We have been hearing this since Floyd yet people still attempt mass evacuation.

My wife and I were just discussing this. Our plan was to leave if it was just coming into the east coast but now if it's going to be felt almost statewide we have nowhere to go really. So if it's stronger than cat 2 we'll be heading to a shelter. There's a school near us that's just 4 years old and that will be where we go.

Good call. When I was growing up in Mississippi, we evacuated more than a few times but never very far. We had to leave as we were water front and surge traps us. Up until the 2000s my mom was a principal and we evacuated to her schools but it became apparent in George's that they weren't safe from water. Then the goal became get north of I-10. They went thru Katrina eye wall in Hattiesburg 70 miles inland and said it was bad but not as bad as Frederics eye at the coast. They learned a lot over the years and it still amazes me we stayed in our tiny wood frame house in a flood plain for Elena and Frederic. That house would have been submerged in Georges and Katrina. But some of my fondest memories are riding out Storms in my moms schools with extended family who generally joined us.