ATL: IRMA - Models

[joey]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

That would be a history storm...

how strong is that thanks

[TheStormExpert]

Even 6-days out there is only about a 50 mile difference in position between the GFS, Euro, and CMC.

[South Texas Storms]

And that is low res right?

Yeah high-res is 926mb.

What is the wind speed?

Sustained winds to hurricane force, with gusts of 130 mph.

[plasticup]

Yikes. At very least would be midday and not at midnight.

And at low tide, which on 9/21 is 0700 EDT. That will help.

[NDG]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

[fox13weather]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Steve]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Euro back/still offshore at 168 moving pretty fast. High building overhead, trough retreating and Jose closing in. System at 937mb and threatening GA/SC. Looks like an SC hit unless it follows the trough and it doesn't have much time to do that.

[stormreader]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

I know. But you're playing with fire, here.

[Evil Jeremy]

Models are in real good agreement at day 5 about the location of Irma being just to the north of Cuba. Whilst this may shift around a little the general location will probably be about right now. Of course small shifts makes the differencve between a major hitting Cuba and it staying offshore and instead smashing the southern Bahamas islands.

And it's this tight consensus that has me worried. Not often you see this tight of a consensus, and it's been solidly tight for the past day. Normally, 6 days out you can laugh at being at the center of the models, but the forecast feels much more credible this time around. There is an almost certainty of a major hurricane off Florida's doorstep in 5 days. What happens after that is still unclear, but it's hard to see a scenario right now where some part of Florida isn't getting walloped.

There seems to be more clarity with Irma 7 days out, then there was with Matthew 4/5 days out before it was clear it was Florida-bound.

[HurricaneFrances04]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

Won't Irma have a much larger windfield?

[northjaxpro]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

Utter destruction part 1. Big massive high building east across Canada so if it gets offshore, it's more likely to come north than follow the trough. I'd give odds on that 75/25

I agree!

[M3gaMatch]

Looks like the ridge building in over Canada behind the upper low.

[psyclone]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

Correct. there is ample time for a rightward adjustment which would spare Florida at the expense of the Bahamas and probably some points north. It looks like someone's gonna pay rent with this one though...just too soon to know who.

[AutoPenalti]

Another west shift.

[fox13weather]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

Won't Irma have a much larger windfield?

Impacts on the west side of hurricanes are always exaggerated....See Corpus Christi in Harvey. If you stay out of the eyewall...it's not a bad outcome at all....

[NDG]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Euro back/still offshore at 168 moving pretty fast. High building overhead, trough retreating and Jose closing in. System at 937mb and threatening GA/SC. Looks like an SC hit unless it follows the trough and it doesn't have much time to do that.

That's a big ridge to the north moving into NE US.
I don't like how slowly it moves up the coast, could be very damaging to SE coastal FL, if this run is correct.

[plasticup]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

That would be a historic storm...

how strong is that thanks

It doesn't correlate perfectly with wind speed, but 935 mb would generally be a category 4, winds in the 135-145 mph range. I may be wrong about this, but I don't think that a category 4 direct hit on a major US city has ever happened in the modern era.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

Won't Irma have a much larger windfield?

Impacts on the west side of hurricanes are always exaggerated....See Corpus Christi in Harvey. If you stay out of the eyewall...it's not a bad outcome at all....

No single storm is alike! Besides it gets much closer to the Florida east coast when compared to Matthew.

[Steve]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

We're talking just tens of miles between destruction and terrible. Strong Cat 4 on that Euro!