ATL: IRMA - Models

[Frank P]

Latest 18Z:

On that map it does look like the TVCN has shifted ever so slightly to the west to me...

[RL3AO]

UKMET did well to catch the SW shift, but I'm starting to think it's overdoing it now. I think the Euro/GFS track is spot on through 3 or 4 days.

[MetroMike]

Bottom line is that model solutions will change between now and the weekend. All these close landfalls to the Florida coast mean nothing.
The final solutions will play out until the day of approach.
Everyone in the cone will have to prepare as though it's headed to their location of of course.

[ronjon]

If the tropical models are to be believed, the Euro is slow. Both HWRF and HMON have Irma near 80W in 126 hrs. Euro doesn't get there in 144 hrs. Second trend I picked on is the ECM is lifting out the trough a little sooner. This may have big implications with stronger ridge building in sooner.

[northjaxpro]

Latest 18Z:

On that map it does look like the TVCN has shifted ever so slightly to the west to me...

Yes. TVCN nudged ever so slightly to the left.

[Steve]

12Z's are finished. JMA, CMC and NAVGEM like SW FL. GFS likes SFL. Euro is SE/coastal FL. Hurricane models don't go far enough out but are on/near Cuba 5 days. US Impacts beyond Puerto Rico (praying for a miss on y'all) are now just inside a week. Paranoia will set in. Get your stuff done while you can if you're in SFL.

I'm 95% convinced Irma will not be an out to sea storm. So even if it barely misses FL (ala ECMWF), it's going to come west eventually due to the Canadian block. ECMWF takes a different path inland than the GFS does and is more NW initially than later. It heads across the Smokys into Kentucky and finally hooks left into southern Indiana. GFS has been showing this high building since it started hitting Maryland 12 runs ago. So at some point in time, Irma has to come west eventually.

East window looks closed.

Storm E of 60W, that E door is never closed for Florida, but it's not looking good ATM...

You're right. You should never say never which is why I only gave it 95%. But to stormreader's point, while a westward adjusting ECMWF shows an ultra-near miss to the east of Florida, I think the door is virtually closed on not hitting the continental US. The question to me is do we get 1 or 2 landfalls at this point. Unless something drastically changes upstream in Canada, I'm almost certain the US is going to get its 2nd major hurricane landfall of the season. Again,I hate the globals day 5-6-7, but there is just too good of agreement to ignore then with Irma at this point. They may shift and sway a little, and I was on record since last week saying wait til at least Tuesday. Models were off by 1000 miles then though.

[Ken711]

UKMET did well to catch the SW shift, but I'm starting to think it's overdoing it now. I think the Euro/GFS track is spot on through 3 or 4 days.

Yes. UKMET seems too far South.

[OntarioEggplant]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

[Ken711]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

But Euro's track was much more accurate.

[KWT]

UKMET did well to catch the SW shift, but I'm starting to think it's overdoing it now. I think the Euro/GFS track is spot on through 3 or 4 days.

Yeah it has got a habit of overdoing the ridging somewhat at times, especially when it comes to breaking down the ridging. Kinda the opposite of the GFS. Still the reason it did well in the first place was because it locked onto the stronger ridge before other models. ECM also clocked it and to be fair the CMC was decent as well.

[stormreader]

On discussion thread. Irma now a Cat 4.

Interestingly, HWRF, before the recent runs hit Cuba and stunted it, was rolling it continuously in Cat 4 territory. I'm sure it's happened a few times, but I don't recall any recent storms that stayed at Cat 4 for like 4-5 days straight. Usually there are eyewall interruptions and such where a storm will maybe degrade back to a 3 or whatever. Short of an encounter with Hispanola or Cuba, we are now potentially looking at a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hit on Florida in a week. Then we are looking at a Cat 2/3/? hit on SC or NC thereafter. The potential here is as big as it gets.

Can't give you specifics, but I found a steady-state 135 mph for an extended period of time is what one might expect with a powerful storm. Well, maybe use Hugo as an example??? After being a Cat 5, I seem to remember him in the 135mph range (consistently). Amazing in itself. Large and powerful.

[Soonercane]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

[stormreader]

On discussion thread. Irma now a Cat 4.

Interestingly, HWRF, before the recent runs hit Cuba and stunted it, was rolling it continuously in Cat 4 territory. I'm sure it's happened a few times, but I don't recall any recent storms that stayed at Cat 4 for like 4-5 days straight. Usually there are eyewall interruptions and such where a storm will maybe degrade back to a 3 or whatever. Short of an encounter with Hispanola or Cuba, we are now potentially looking at a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hit on Florida in a week. Then we are looking at a Cat 2/3/? hit on SC or NC thereafter. The potential here is as big as it gets.

Can't give you specifics, but I found a steady-state 135 mph for an extended period of time is what one might expect with a powerful storm. Well, maybe use Hugo as an example??? After being a Cat 5, I seem to remember him in the 135mph range (consistently). Amazing in itself. Large and powerful.

On second thought, he had to build back up to that speed. Wasn't there consistently.

[CrazyTropics]

Models really appear to slightly move to the right not left. Tjis mYbe a coastal east florida up to carolinas storm rather than anytjing

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensembles shifted slightly west from 0z. Mean is over the Keys Sunday afternoon.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

I disagree. Look at the OHC/SST...will have high RH, no SAL, and minimal shear. Only thing to limit is EWRCs and land.

[canefan]

I know IRMA is a very serious situation and I know this is the wrong thread, but why is no one, not even the models, paying attention to what is going on in the BOC!?
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=4091&y=6187&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=90&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro control run is slightly west of the operational run. Takes it over the Keys and up the Florida peninsula.

[stormreader]

12z Euro Ensembles shifted slightly west from 0z. Mean is over the Keys Sunday afternoon.

And as much attention as there is for Miami, with the west shifts, the Keys are very much under the gun.

[RL3AO]

Can I take this moment to remind everyone how the Euro severely underestimated the intensity of Harvey constantly. It never even really got close to the intensity, and it was already underestimating it by the time the model was actually coming out.

The GFS, though late to the party, was a bit closer in intensity though overshot a few times.

I would be stunned if this gets within 30 mb of the pressures depicted by the GFS it is in an ok environment, but not good enough to support a Cat 5.

That's not true. I'd be kinda surprised if Irma doesn't become a cat 5 at some point. It doesn't support a sub 880 mb storm, but that's a different story.