ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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thundercam96
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2921 Postby thundercam96 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:22 pm

La Sirena wrote:
thundercam96 wrote:I'm currently stationed overseas right now (to where I could get back stateside in 12 hours) and my command is asking if I would be looking at returning back home to Florida. I have family and friends in the Daytona area, and I call that area home as well. I'm pondering whether or not it would be a feasible option to return there to help clean up. It would honestly kill me to see the scenario play out in my backyard from 6000 miles away. I have a few plans on how to get back into the area in a disaster situation (fly into ATL, Tallahassee). Regardless, I know this is still far out and things can change extremely quickly, but i'm unsure if it would be feasible to return in such conditions.

Do you have a house that needs to be boarded up? I'm impressed your CO asked about your returning home!

Various neighbors from the neighborhood have offered to help my parents if need be. I'm more concerned with the cleanup aspect. As for my command, another guy in my unit had his house essentially destroyed in Harvey. He is waiting for the waters to recede and I believe he'll be on his way back to Houston.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2922 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:22 pm

Prof wrote:When can we be more certain of the path through or by Florida? By tomorrow should we have a good idea?


maybe 00z tomorrow night. it needs to turn first.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2923 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:23 pm

What do they call that between Cuba and the Keys? Florida Straits?

Seems lined up right on that between the two land masses.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2924 Postby brghteys1216 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:23 pm

Rick Scott issued state of emergency for all of Florida in preparation for Irma.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/florida/g ... p-for-irma
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2925 Postby norva » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:25 pm

Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2926 Postby bob rulz » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:27 pm

I wouldn't say it's inevitable, but chances are quite good. It's moving into conditions that are nearly as favorable as it gets for tropical cyclones.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2927 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:27 pm

norva wrote:Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.


I'd give it a 70% chance of hitting cat 5 sometime in the next week. Very quick guess without a lot of thought put into it. But 4 vs 5 doesn't matter that much.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2928 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:28 pm

norva wrote:Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.


I think it has a decent chance at a 5 and an excellent chance of staying at least a 3 through landfall barring any affects from the big islands. I haven't read the new advisory yet to see if the NHC is going that route or not with their forecast.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2929 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:28 pm

Part of the inner eye still hanging on... another hour or two and the eye should become bigger and clear out again..

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-2-.kmz
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2930 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:28 pm

norva wrote:Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.

Pretty good. Official forecast is 130 knots and category 5 is 140+. For reference, the NHC's average forecast error is 15 knots.

Just to throw out a completely unscientific number, maybe 25% chance.
Last edited by plasticup on Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2931 Postby norva » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:28 pm

Thank you! Either way, it'll be a beast. In Orlando here, will think about taking a weekend trip to Arizona to see some relatives and get as far away from Irma as I can.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2932 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:29 pm

norva wrote:Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.


I think odds are pretty high it becomes a CAT5 sometime between now and Sat...NOT saying CAT5 into FL though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2933 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:30 pm

RL3AO wrote:
norva wrote:Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.


I'd give it a 70% chance of hitting cat 5 sometime in the next week. Very quick guess without a lot of thought put into it. But 4 vs 5 doesn't matter that much.


sure you dont want to restate that a little bit about the 4 vs 5 ... lol
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2934 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:32 pm

Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all 67 Florida counties.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2935 Postby caneseddy » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:33 pm

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/904808994501484544


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2936 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:35 pm




he needs to watch out what he says.. there is no northerly component yet and thats very important..
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2937 Postby brghteys1216 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:36 pm

What is an anticyclonic vacuum?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2938 Postby rickybobby » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:36 pm

Kids at ucf :eek: here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Orlando is not in the cone and it's going to the keys and hit Texas."
"It's going to be like Matthew, nothing will happen."
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."
"It's going to hook and clip Miami and miss the east coast of Florida."
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2939 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:37 pm

3 fingers of dry air is still lingering on its path.
Pocket of marginal- unfavorable shear on its approach to the islands ( but could quickly change)
Image

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2940 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 04, 2017 4:37 pm

rickybobby wrote:Kids at ucf :eek: here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Orlando is not in the cone and it's going to the keys and hit Texas."
"It's going to be like Matthew, nothing will happen."
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."
"It's going to hook and clip Miami and miss the east coast of Florida."


Normalcy bias. Plus ignorance. People never learn.
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