ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CFLHurricane]

What is an anticyclonic vacuum?

It's an upper level high over the hurricane that helps vent the rising air away from the hurricane which allows it to maintain its intensity.

[Steve]

Sorry, amateur here, what is the possibility of it becoming a cat 5? Lots of warm seas ahead of it, if it can avoid the big islands. Hopefully it won't get that strong.

To update, as of the last forecast advisory and last discussion, NHC only takes it to 150mph rather than the required 156mph for Cat 5.

[AdamFirst]

Kids at ucf here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."

"Hurricane Supplies"!

[Steve]

Kids at ucf here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Orlando is not in the cone and it's going to the keys and hit Texas."
"It's going to be like Matthew, nothing will happen."
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."
"It's going to hook and clip Miami and miss the east coast of Florida."

hahahahahaha. You gotta have cases of beer on hand.

[Extratropical94]

Spiral staircase

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ ... .100pc.jpg

What is the approx. size of Irma there?

Latitudes are 69 miles apart, whereas longitudes at 17°N have a distance of 66 miles between them. The boxes are 2x2 degrees so they are 138x132 miles each. Therefore "visible Irma" has a diameter of roughly 500 miles. You can also look at the radius of the outermost closed isobar in the best track file

AL, 11, 2017090418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 20, 30, 1011, 250, 15, 140, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 12, NEQ, 270, 120, 150, 270, genesis-num, 023,

The OCI is 1011 mb and is 250 miles out, so the diameter would also be 500 miles in this case.

Pardon me, I was partly incorrect about that. The OCI radius is given in nautical miles, so 500 nautical miles would equate to 575 miles.

[WeatherGuesser]

WFO PAH already mentioning Irma.

Will be interested to see how collaborated NHC/WPC forecasts handle
Irma`s track later this week. There still remains some varied
solutions from the Canadian, GFS, and ECMWF for the next several
days. Depending on the final track of Irma, could see some
interaction with the synoptic scale features near the WFO PAH
forecast area around the middle of September.

[jdjaguar]

Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for all 67 Florida counties.

All hell is gonna break loose now, pardon my language.

Grab water, batteries, gas up car.

Today

[CFLHurricane]

Kids at ucf here's some of the stuff I'm reading
"Orlando is not in the cone and it's going to the keys and hit Texas."
"It's going to be like Matthew, nothing will happen."
"Anyone over 21 please buy me cases of bud."
"It's going to hook and clip Miami and miss the east coast of Florida."

Normalcy bias. Plus ignorance. People never learn.

Kids will be kids; plus it's Orlando which is 50 miles from the coast. Just stay inside away from windows during the hurricane and you'll almost certainly be safe.

[Aric Dunn]

Inner eye is slowly losing the battle.. should be gone soon..

[bob rulz]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

[CFLHurricane]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

Declaring a state of emergency opens up funding for official hurricane prep in addition to recovery after the storm.

[yzerfan]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

A lot of it is for bureaucratic reasons- the anti-price gouging laws kick in, it removes a bunch for rules for purchasing processes for state government and makes it easier for different government units to work together without having to clear it up and down the chain of command, etc.

At one point a few years back, Florida was in a state of emergency from about May (wildfires) to late October (tropical weather) and no one who didn't read the press releases ever would have known it for about 90% of that time frame.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

I thought the same at first, but I think the severity of the threat warrants the early caution.

[Preemptivestrike]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is it making the turn early? Maybe just a wobble.

[psyclone]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

No. It's standard protocol in florida and activates state agencies to deal with the situation. It doesn't mean freak out or panic and it has nothing to with a potential high impact event. It happens even with a minimal ts.

[bamajammer4eva]

Just checked their app and Weather channel forecast for my area, Birmingham, and Atlanta all say watching topics and have breezy conditions for next week

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042149
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 10 20170904
213930 1636N 05437W 6957 02707 9472 +154 +148 291044 047 054 005 00
214000 1638N 05436W 6962 02677 9447 +154 +150 288028 033 031 004 00
214030 1640N 05435W 6967 02662 9434 +153 +152 282010 015 019 004 00
214100 1642N 05435W 6977 02645 9428 +157 +146 135010 016 019 001 03
214130 1644N 05434W 6985 02643 9429 +165 +146 109028 033 030 001 00
214200 1646N 05434W 6957 02691 9437 +171 +141 099040 044 036 002 00
214230 1649N 05434W 6969 02693 9462 +163 +147 096051 054 044 002 00
214300 1651N 05434W 6966 02718 9483 +162 +150 099061 068 057 003 00
214330 1653N 05434W 6964 02745 9513 +158 +153 098077 080 074 006 00
214400 1655N 05434W 6962 02776 9556 +148 +145 097084 088 091 002 00
214430 1657N 05434W 6958 02809 9602 +135 //// 098093 094 102 004 01
214500 1659N 05434W 6968 02831 9645 +126 //// 098109 116 109 013 01
214530 1701N 05434W 6941 02899 9687 +119 //// 098119 125 103 041 01
214600 1703N 05435W 6952 02924 9729 +122 //// 097128 130 097 044 01
214630 1705N 05435W 6963 02942 9781 +110 +106 099121 122 089 028 00
214700 1707N 05435W 6952 02980 9811 +110 +106 097117 119 084 014 00
214730 1709N 05435W 6969 02984 9836 +108 //// 099111 113 082 008 01
214800 1711N 05435W 6960 03014 9866 +101 //// 098106 107 079 008 01
214830 1713N 05435W 6968 03022 9881 +106 //// 101104 104 072 012 01
214900 1716N 05435W 6967 03036 9898 +105 //// 104099 100 067 014 01

130 knts flight level and 109 knts smrf. 942.8mb.

[Aric Dunn]

Even better image from inside the eye.. showing whats left of the inner eyewall. outer eyeway looks to really be deepening now.. clearing eye soon..

[eastcoastFL]

Updated map from Navy Research based on Nhc forecast: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bi ... 92W.INVEST,

[Aric Dunn]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is it making the turn early? Maybe just a wobble.

the inner eye is wobbling around in the larger outer eyewall.. still west to maybe just barely south of west.